So are we giving up?

[Cheezoholic]

The midterms are notoriously anti the party in power. Are we giving up the midterms? Just because thats the status quo, are we giving up? Is this November not just as important if not more important than 2020? Maybe I'm beating a dead horse, but dammit, if we beat these fucks in November its 1000 times more important than 2024. Why am I not seeing or hearing or feeling the same stuff from this party as I did in 2019? 2022 is it.

[CrackityJones75]

1. Uhhhhhhh what?

[Cheezoholic]

5. Im sick of hearing about 2024

and fuck head running. ive seen tons of posts on this site and other sites that focus on 2024. If we lose in November please tell me how we beat these fucks. Seriously, 2022 is THE most important election in this country's history.

[uponit7771]

2. Hell No, even FAUX NewZ has dem/reps even on generic. That's UNHEARD of in a ruling party

... in the US with a president under 50% and rt/wt in the 70s.

[Celerity]

13. the national generic polls are pretty much useless, as so many Dems (more than Rethugs) are in

deep deep Blue districts. Our voters are far more concentrated than the Rethugs' are.

We have so many districts where the Dem will get 60, 65, 70, 75, 80, 85% of the vote or run unopposed, even in Red states.

It is dilution of raw voting total numbers via concentration.

In closer districts we get the double whammy.

We have to run far more centrist candidates, who if elected are more likely to stop major initiates and cause a fracturing of the party (something that the Rethugs now do not really need to worry about nearly as much, as it is fairly rare that there is any major dissent in their votes).

At the same time, the Rethugs will paint even a centrist to centre right Dem as a radical fire breathing AOC clone, which can force an even more rightward slant in our swing district candidates, including their votes if they get elected.

Wash, rinse, repeat.

[uponit7771]

18. True, its still not a bad number but the better number would be to drill down to district level.

... Do you know of any ?!

tia

[Celerity]

19. It's very hard to get an accurate snapshot until the last 5 states finish their maps, and then

most all close key primaries are finished.

Plus there are many large variables that can change:

inflation across all fronts

major legislation/possible EO's left undone atm

Ukraine

COVID

Jan 6th fallout

major SCOTUS decisions

States are redrawing every congressional district in the U.S. Here is where we stand.

https://www.politico.com/interactives/2022/congressional-redistricting-maps-by-state-and-district/

[gab13by13]

20. Yeah, we have to run centrists to get elected (has that actually been proven?)

then those centrists vote with Republicans to kill our president's signature legislation that he was elected on. Then younger voters will be disenfranchised and won't be enthused to vote. rinse and repeat. President Biden ran as a centrist and has governed as a progressive, maybe that's what we should be doing?

If your theory is accurate about having to run centrists, why is Conor Lamb switching from being a centrist and running as a progressive in Pa.? It seems to me he is doing so because the voters of Pa. (me) want to vote for a progressive.

[Celerity]

25. Lamb is tacking to the left for the primary, he will tack to the centre for the general, if he

wins the primary, and will be a crapshoot in the Senate if he wins the general. He is far more likely to be a somewhat problematic vote in the Senate than either Fetterman or Kenyatta would be, but hopefully IF he wins both the primary (fairly hard at this point, he us at 10% atm, and has never had more than 16% in any poll I have seen since the middle of summer 2021) and then the general, he will surprise me in a good way.

For the House hopefully we have mixture of more centrist campaigning types who when they get elected go in a more progressive direction

(Shontel Brown (not the best example as she did not really run as a centrist) is now a co-sponsor of MFA and joined the Progressive Caucus, for instance, after Turner and some others unfairly slagged her off as a Corpodem, which I found repelling and now it was proven to be bullshit so far. I do not like Turner at all, she is a loose cannon who does not play well with others.)

and then perhaps some progs who can win swing or even reddish districts (but we have not seen much of that so far lately, as the progs usually fall in the primaries in swing districts or end up winning either deep Blue seats or winning the primaries in a few scattered deep Red districts (due to no true primary opposition) where they have little to no chance in the general.

[Silent3]

3. I can be extremely pessimistic without giving up

It seems a lot of people can't grasp that combination, however.

I am NOT a proponent of the magical thinking that says you make things happen by believing they will happen.

[Celerity]

12. Excellent reply.

[hamsterjill]

24. Brilliant!

So well said!

[Polybius]

4. I'm gonna do my part and vote

Am I worried? For the House, yes. Not so much for the Senate.

[elleng]

6. Oh SURE!

Link to tweet

?

[Cheezoholic]

8. Nice graph

I've had republican ground forces knock on my door twice in the last month and I live in the middle of a cornfield.

[BigmanPigman]

7. The Dems always suck at messaging...

I think that linking Putin with the GQP and tRump is a a great way to go since the majority of Americans hate Putin. Also, keep the missing 7 hours of phone calls as a Nixon-move only a ton worse would help.

The Dems never blow their own horns. For example, Dem presidents have always had to clean up the economic disaster of the GQP presidents before them. Do most Americans remember this EVER? Hell no!

Biden has created a ton of jobs, will Americans acknowledge this for the midterms? Nope. Dems need better PR.

[gab13by13]

21. I agree that Dems need to speak out more to change the narrative,

Dems are behind the 8 ball because the MSM pushes the right wing narrative, including MSNBC. The only way for Dems to counter that is to seek out microphones and speak out. President Bident has been doing just that, I love that he is speaking out, Dems in Congress need to follow our president's example.

Here is one example; The Clarence Thomas/Ginni Thomas controversy. What would Republicans be saying to the MSM has Clarence been appointed by a Democrat? We should all know what they would be saying. Every Republican would be seeking out a microphone and a camera demanding that Clarence Thomas resign immediately. What do Democrats do? One says he should recuse just for 1/6 cases, AOc says he should resign, anyone else other than AOC? Oh yeah, Speaker Pelosi was asked if Clarence should resign, she replied, "he should never have been elected to the court."

Just think what would happen if every Congressional Democrat were to speak out and say that Clarence Thomas should resign?
It would get more coverage, would stay in the news longer, would change the narrative away from Republican talking points.

Clarence Thomas should resign is a bold statement and I bet that reporters would have to start asking that question to Congressional Republicans.

Fuck, I miss Ted Kennedy.

[betsuni]

9. For example? What are you not seeing, hearing, feeling?

[Cheezoholic]

10. Besides nothing?

Besides nothing?

[betsuni]

11. Nothing what?

[betsuni]

17. Really, nothing what? This is a forum for Democrats.

Democrats have done nothing? Please explain.

[NBachers]

14. I'm giving donations all over the board - not big ones, but donations nonetheless.

[left-of-center2012]

15. What worries me is ...

Too many people sit home during midterm elections.

[Brainfodder]

16. I'm feeling good, the Republicans are making a bunch of errors in public view, I can't see...

Anything but a serious trouncing this time of the Restupids.

I just get the feeling that Waddle Dump in jail could be for real.

If not yeah whatthehellisthiscountry?

All the public stoogery has been too strong this year?

Republicans, definitely keep marching Rudy around!

[gab13by13]

22. President Biden is doing his part, he is speaking out, a lot.

This is one example of what Congressional Democrats should be doing. The Clarence Thomas/Ginni Thomas controversy is a BFD. Every Congressional Democrat should be demanding that Clarence Thomas resign, immediately. Every one, not just AOC. That would get MSM coverage, why it may even force reporters to ask Congressional Republicans if Clarence should resign?

[Walleye]

23. The TV talking heads keep making confident-sounding predictions that don't come true

But that won’t stop them from doing the same thing next time. Like Republicans they don’t care how wrong they are. They have lost all intellectual integrity

[Chainfire]

26. The most effective thing that I can do is vote.

It I am able, I will vote. I don't feel good about the coming elections, and I may be defeated, but I will not give up.

[Kaleva]

27. If you give up, that's your choice