Is there a Romney Effect in the polls?

[central scrutinizer]

Remember the supposed Bradley effect? For those who are unfamiliar with the term, it was coined during the 1982 California gubernatorial election. Tom Bradley, the Democratic candidate, was an African American former mayor of Los Angeles who appeared to be leading in the polls, but lost on election day. It was posited that some voters who were polled did not want to sound racist when called and said they preferred Bradley, but in the privacy of the voting booth could not vote for him. Now look at this recent tidbit, which I borrowed from another thread:

Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking: Obama 48% - Romney 47%

Monday, October 29, 2012

Washington, D.C. - Today’s Reuters/Ipsos Daily Tracker has Obama down one point from yesterday to 48% and Romney up one point to 47%.

Nearly a quarter (22%) have already cast their vote, with 58% voting for Obama vs. 39% for Romney. This breaks down to 94% of Democrats casting votes for Obama, and 82% of Republicans casting votes for Romney. Six percent (6%) of Democrats and 16% of Republicans are voting cross-party."

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5859

Are Republicans who are polled saying "Romney" to the pollster, but when it comes to actually vote, they can't do it? It might be disillusionment with his flip-flopping or anti-Mormon prejudice. They may be voting for Obama or for the libertarian candidate as a protest. Usually the Rs move in lockstep, so the 16% number is pretty huge, in my opinion.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

1. Possibly

but I'd treat anybody saying that they're voting for Romney as either voting for him or not voting at all. Anybody IMHO for whom Mormonism would be a problem most likely would abstain from voting altogether rather than vote for President Obama.

[Blue Owl]

2. Perhaps this blimp would answer your question -- unless you're CNN

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[EC]

3. maybe some can't read the ballot

(lack of reading skills, bad eyes - no glasses - wrong prescription) and think the challenger Rmoney would be listed second on ballot, so that's the one they vote for. Low and behold the second one listed is President Obama. (At least that's how it's listed here)

[DonViejo]

4. I've thought all along that this was going to happen...

I think the President will be re-elected with a 53% to 47% spread (maybe 45%, depending on total impact of votes cast for third party candidates).

[pointsoflight]

5. Biggest problems with the polls, IMO...

1. Many may be underestimating the number of non-white voters in their LV models by using historical numbers from past elections.
2. Many erroneously screen out young, first-time voters as part of their LV screening process.
3. There appears to be a republican lean when automated polling is used (Ras, Gallup).
4. There appears to be a republican lean when pollsters don't include cell phones.