Election Forecast Summaries: 10/29 (evening)
From now until the election I'll post once or twice a day with these summaries. "p(RE)" means "probability of re-election," and is expressed in a scale from 0 to 1, so 0.937, for instance, means 93.7%. "unch" means unchanged from last report. Date of last update is given if at least one day old and if time of update is known.
[font color="blue"]
Votamatic: O 332 (unch from 10/27)
University of Illinois U-C: O 291.4 (+0.4); p(RE)=0.949 (unch)
Electoral-vote.com: O 280, R 235, T 23 (unch)
Huffington Post: O 277, R 191, T 70 (unch)
FiveThirtyEight: O 294.6 (-2); p(RE)=0.729 (-.017)
Princeton: O 303 (+3); p(RE)=0.90-0.97 (unch)
DeSart/Holbrook: O 281 (unch); p(RE)=0.8682 (unch)[/font]
[font color="red"]
...And Just For Laughs, UnSkewedPolls: O 179, R 359 (unch from 10/25) [/font] which means my bet with Dean Chambers is presently worth $2,312.00.
From what I can tell, 538's decline is due solely to Florida and North Carolina becoming a bit redder in the polls. Our firewall is perfectly intact, and if you're really nervous, consider how terrified you would feel as a Rmoney supporter looking at these numbers (and did not buy the unskewed polls bullshit). 