New Poll Reveals Warning Signs for GOP on Abortion

[applegrove]

New Poll Reveals Warning Signs for GOP on Abortion

May 6, 2022 at 5:46 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 66 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2022/05/06/new-poll-reveals-warning-signs-for-gop-on-abortion/

"SNIP.......

A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll found that registered voters initially preferred a generic Democrat over a generic Republican by 5 percentage points when asked how they would vote in their district if the congressional election were being held today, 44% to 39%.

But when voters were asked to choose instead between a “pro-choice Democrat” and a “pro-life Republican,” GOP support fell to 31% while Democratic support held steady — more than doubling the gap between the two candidates, to 13 percentage points.

......SNIP"

[ColinC]

1. Easy peezy

Every democrat not running on a pro choice platform in a swing district this year is wrong.

[Hugh_Lebowski]

2. Everyone who's not pro-choice is wrong, so your assertion logically follows (nt)

[Demovictory9]

3. Yes

[ProudMNDemocrat]

4. I have said many times if Roe was overturned....

Republicans would pay a heavy price at the ballot box come November. That women were going to rally, march, be seen and heard.

For decades they have railed about all the abortions that have taken place, yet offered no solutions to help women who did give birth with pre-natal and post-natal care, medical care for the baby, increased funding for WIC and SNAP, funding Head Start and other Pre-K programs, rally for FREE Child care so that women who do work, had help, and more. But NO!

All the Republicans are pissed about is that there was a leak! They are AFRAID to take that victory lap and say "Job well done! The Supreme Court is going to give us what we have wanted for decades."

[geardaddy]

23. That was my thought as well

I always thought if Roe got overturned republicans would lose one of their main planks.

[Upthevibe]

32. geardaddy...

That has been my feeling as well.

It's the fanatical emotions of the anti-choice/anti-abortion contingent that (I think in some cases) has made a number of Republicans make a deal with the Devil for overturning Roe v. Wade.

This is what had bonded them. As a lesbian, I'm of course concerned about the future of same-sex marriage but I don't think it's a hill they'll die on. I don't see the vitriolic insanity coming close to Roe v. Wade and I don't necessarily think it will invigorate their base the way Roe has.

I made be wrong but it's just my sense.....

[Tommymac]

37. Have no doubt, birth control and making marital rape legal are next...then they will come for you.

It's the way the legal cases have to be overturned. Griswold is probably next. Gay marriage will be up near the end since the prior precedent cases that were used in the decision need to be overturned first.

But have no worries - they WILL be coming for ANYONE who is not a Straight White Christian Male soon enough if this is allowed to stand.

The Cold Civil War that has raged in the US for decades over Human Rights and Democracy is heating up fast.

[geardaddy]

43. Oh, I don't doubt it one bit

I know they will go after those things, as well

[Tommymac]

44. I'll have your back when they try.

We are in this fight together.

[geardaddy]

45. Yes we are!

And I'll have yours!

[bucolic_frolic]

5. Wait until they outlaw birth control

and make condoms illegal.

[thatdemguy]

6. This is why I dont trust polls

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/06/politics/cnn-poll-abortion-midterms-roe-v-wade/index.html

Abortion not the only factor for most voters
Republicans hold a narrow edge over Democrats on the generic ballot test, 49% to 42% among registered voters, a slight improvement for Republicans compared with the poll conducted immediately before the ruling. On the economy -- the issue most likely to be a driving factor for voters this fall -- nearly half of adults (46%) in the latest poll say the Republican Party's positions are more aligned with their own, compared with 31% for the Democratic Party. About three-quarters say that which party controls Congress makes a real difference -- a figure that did not shift between the two polls -- with more Republicans saying so than Democrats (88% vs. 78%).

Those findings suggest the overall picture for the midterm elections is little changed after this week's news, at least in the short term. Only about half of the country say they have heard a great deal or a good amount about the draft Supreme Court opinion thus far (49%), with 51% saying they've heard just some or nothing at all about it.

[ColinC]

7. Democrats can make abortion the only issue

And should

[thatdemguy]

8. Problem

Is and this is from a few people I have talked to, most people including a few woman I have talked to see the price at the pump and when they go to the grocery store daily. But dont see abortion effecting them on a daily basis. Most people operate on a what is effecting me right now basis, even if its stupid.

[uponit7771]

14. "...from a few people I have talked to.." Generic polling shows this is a huge stoke for democrats.

[ColinC]

15. Yet somehow Republicans have been super effective with their fear tactics

I think we can do the same. "The GOP is banning contraception, and have already began discussing banning interracial marriage"

[fierywoman]

20. We can throw fear right back at them: "Want to lose SS?" "Want to lose Medicare?"

"Do they have any solutions for inflation?" "Do they have any solutions for the price of energy?" etc. Listen to what Pete B said.

[BumRushDaShow]

30. "Want to lose SS?" "Want to lose Medicare?"

This was one of the most effective ads of the 2012 election and they (including me) are still talking about it a decade later -

(do something like this with the coat hanger)

[intheflow]

33. Wow, I missed that back in the day!

Would love to see this level of creativity and impact in Democratic ads today. Grateful for the MeidasTouch's work in a similar vein, and also The Lincoln Project.

[BumRushDaShow]

34. They seriously need to go to that level

because we need to hold Congress or we will be SOL for the next 2 years.

Meidas Touch was fantastic with their billboards during the last election and Lincoln Project was capturing the moderate GOPers (whatever is left of them) and right-leaning indies (of course the left was cheering their stuff on because watching the flip of Steve Schmidt was a thing to behold. ).

Link to tweet

Steve Schmidt
@SteveSchmidtSES
.@JDVance1 is pro-life? Come again?
HE CASHED CHECKS written with SACKLER OPIOD 💰BLOOD 🩸 Money. They killed at least a MILLION HUMAN BEINGS. THEY KILLED ONE MILLION OF OUR FELLOW CITIZENS. 1.000,000 people. Vance set up a charity that could have SAVED LIVES. It was a FRAUD
11:39 AM · May 6, 2022

[wryter2000]

39. I never saw the whole thing

[BumRushDaShow]

41. It was posted widely on DU back then

It literally hit a home run.

When I was searching around for the website of the group who did it since it changed (Agenda Project) I discovered that they did a few others at the time that I had not seen, and I think one of them is relevant enough today to repurpose and update -

[ColinC]

31. "Republicans want to outlaw your interracial marriage!"

And "they want to make contraception illegal!"

Where is the lie?

[llmart]

26. +1

Never forget that they use gun control and fear tactics quite effectively. Each democratic nominee is always the next one who "wants to take your guns away".

Guns and abortion are their main focus - always. Turn it back on them. We need to carry this through the entire election cycle as our main focus. We're up against the corporate media who want to make it about that extra fifty cents you might have to pay at the pump.

[smirkymonkey]

18. "affecting"

Sorry.

[llmart]

24. Also, a few "women"...

not a few "woman".

[Scrivener7]

21. Oh, bullshit.

And it's "affecting."

[Carlitos Brigante]

28. So basically we shouldn't trust polls because of the lack of accuracy. But instead go with

"Some people say". Got it. Sounds just like the Scientific Method.

[BumRushDaShow]

35. "when they go to the grocery store daily"

So the U.S. is now old period Europe (or like small villages) where people "go to the grocery store daily"?

So...like.... pick up a gallon of milk one day. Then the next day, go to the grocery store to pick up a loaf of French bread. And then the next day, go pick up a whole fish. And then the next day, pick up a head of lettuce and couple pounds of tomatoes and onions. And then the next day pick up a bag of sugar, and then the next day go pick up some store-made donuts... And then the next day....

[Mysterian]

36. Cool story, bro!

[uponit7771]

13. +1,

[dwayneb]

29. Democrats should make survival of democracy the only issue

Don't get me wrong - for women faced with the inability to make decisions regarding their health and lives, abortion is absolutely important.

But Americans don't seem to understand that abortion rights will be the least of their worries if the Fascists gain control of Congress in 2022 and the Presidency in 2024.

Abortion, guns, illegal immigrants, race - all of these "issues" have been trotted out by right-wing agitators for decades as a way to coalesce their movement and focus the anger and hate of the proles out in the Red country.

Once our freedoms are gone, once the rule of law is abolished, once the might of the US military and Federal police state is turned on the people, once our election system is fully corrupted and controlled by Fascists, we are done as a representative democracy.

Legal abortion will be the least of your worries.

Point is - Democrats need to be sounding the alarm bells for th demise of our democracy at the very highest levels, but I don't see it happening.

[LenaBaby61]

16. After CNN ran polling where they over-sampled GQP'ers .....

And used 2010 statics/models to conduct most if not all of their polling, I no longer believe shit their poll says. It was bad enough when they ONLY polled right-winged women on their show almost DAILY in their focus groups in 2016 and rarely to NEVER any Dems that year. tRump stole the 2016 presidency and disheveled the office of the presidency yet there was CNN still mostly showing focus groups of GQP'ers Same goes for the NY Times who kept polling angry white males the year tRump stole the presidency in 2016. What the hell were THEY worried about? Their boy stole the presidency, destroyed the economy, defiled the office of the presidency and passed tax cuts for the rich, reich-winged and corporations that we'll be paying on for years, yet my friend who can stomach and not throw up when he hears Andrea "but her emails" Mitchell say that Biden can't get a hold of his economy. HIS economy?

I'm so sick of these washed up, reich-winged "so-called liberal journalists" like Mitchell and Todd who aren't liberal at all as the reich accuses them of being. They're mostly reich-winged corporate HACKS & SHILLS for the party of putin.

[MuseRider]

9. Please do not drop the issue or water it down.

This will end up with a horrific nightmare for everyone if it is allowed to go.

There are enough issues in this one big issue that get real damned personal and if the Dems do not use them they apparently do not want to win.

Every single person stands to suffer from this one, easy, single issue.

Think of having to support these babies, all on the street dirty and starving. Think of Oliver Twist. It could seriously be a lot like that if everyone has kids and mostly single moms with 3 poorly paying jobs trying desperately to raise them.

Nobody wants children to suffer because of one groups "God or Leader".

Our country cannot get better like that, it can only get worse. Think of the suffering of the entire group, mother and child and maybe the father unless they are still allowed to skirt their duties as a parent.

It seems every week it gets more obvious that we HAVE to win or else. Let this be the tipping point because it is so damned personal and nobody likes to see starving and dying children.

[liberalmuse]

10. I used to work with a woman who was Republican.

She was a wedge-issue voter and will not vote for anyone who endangers reproductive rights. There are many more women like her who will vote for the Democrat and not let anyone else know though this woman told me and asked me not to tell the other Republicans in the office. Almost every woman has either been in a position where she's had to make a choice about a pregnancy, or she knows someone who has. This is very important to women who don't base their identities on sucking up to the partriarchy.

[empedocles]

12. As 'con primary candidates leap, to the most far right for the primary voter,

I hope, significant numbers of republican voters, will be repelled by, no abortion allowed, criminalizing with extreme overreach, and marital rape ridiculousness overtones - November voters will be feel differently than the primary voters.

[kimbutgar]

11. Yes the abortion ruling and the insurrection should be front and center

And then remind voters the food processors are making massive amounts of profits. And highlight a few of those companies hurting consumers while the CEO is making millions in salaries and bonuses. Th gas hikes are also the oil companies gouging consumers and remind them all over the world the gas prices at exploding.

[ecstatic]

17. Once again highlights messaging failure

Voters don't appear to realize that the republican party is pushing the forced-birth agenda. Hell, some people may even think that the changes are coming from Biden.

[samsingh]

19. this seems believable and is completely different than the recent CNN poll

[caraher]

22. I don't think these polls have any value

The trouble with these "generic R/D" polls is that nobody ever faces this choice; in your district you have a particular set of candidates to choose from. There are a LOT of voters who might "generically" prefer the candidate of a party but are not thrilled with the specific candidate(s) on offer, or who have some reason to like the specific candidate of the other party.

This is related to the fact Congressional approval ratings have been awful for years yet incumbents generally win re-election. You'd think that we'd want to "throw the bums out" but there's a reason your district or my district keeps electing the same person, and it goes beyond generic approval of Congress or of a party.

[Marius25]

25. The question is, will voters know a candidate is pro-choice or Anti-Roe v. wade?

I hope we get more polls showing a big generic ballot swing towards Democrats over this.

[llmart]

27. I'd actually prefer they refer to them as "anti-choice".

Gotta keep it simple for many of our fellow Americans. The term anti-choice sounds so much worse.

[JohnnyRingo]

38. That's why the dems are trying to get a vote in the senate

Put them on the record to use at re-election time.
If it comes down to it, republicans will try to get away with a voice vote.

[LiberalLovinLug]

40. Is there any doubt this was getting their ducks in a row

So they could quickly initiate this ruling to happen after the mid terms so as not to frighten a lot of independents and pro choice Republicans . That’s why they are so pissed about the leak

[EmmaLee E]

42. They are pissed about the leak

because it lets them play the martyr.

"This leak is the worst thing ever to happen to the Supreme Court." REALLY?

Making the story about the leak, means they avoid speaking to the substance of the decision.

The republicans win by controlling the debate, framing the issue to suit themselves. The democrats better step up their game.

[BannonsLiver]

46. Get back to me in late September.