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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsPollster: Undercounted Cellphone Users Hide Obama's Lead
Are Obama voters underrepresented in presidential polls because they use cellphones?
That's the argument put forward by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg in a new memo released Monday. Government data shows that an increasing percentage of Americans have ditched their traditional land-line phones and now use only cellphones. A year ago, 32 percent of adults used only a cellphone, according to the Center for Disease Control, which tracks cellphone usage. But more and more Americans are relying solely on their cellphonesGreenberg estimates that that figure is now 37 percent. And government statistics show still larger percentages of hispanics, blacks, and young peopleall of whom are more likely to favor Obama, polls showuse cellphones only.
Why does this uptick in cell-only users matter? Because, as Greenberg writes, some polls used to gauge the state of the presidential race don't reach these peopleand could therefore be lowballing Obama's standing. (Robocalls are used by many pollsters, but cellphones are blocked from receiving robocalls.) Greenberg went back and analyzed 4,000 of his polling firm's interviews this election season and found that cell-only voters break for Obama in significant numbers. As the following charts show, people who only use a cellphone said they'd vote for Obama by an 11-point margin, and those who mostly use a cell opted for Obama by 9 points. On the other hand, those who said they used a landline and a cellphone backed Romney by 3 points.
Cellphone-only respondents, Greenberg says, are "attitudinally and culturally distinct." They're less conservative, but not necessarily libertarian, either, though they praise both the National Rifle Association and same-sex marriage. They're a crucial piece of the electorate not entirely captured by polls used in the presidential race.
The rest: http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2012/10/polls-cell-phone-obama-voters-undercount
mainer
(12,022 posts)It shows that those who use landline only break for Obama +14. If you go by this chart, it appears that landline only is more likely to favor Obama than cell phone only.
LisaL
(44,973 posts)Got to be some mistake with "landline only" bar.
nolabear
(41,963 posts)I really believe it. Imo cell only people are voters. And there are a bunch of us.
regnaD kciN
(26,044 posts)...is that Gallup recently started polling cellphones more heavily -- and results (RV as well as LV) immediately moved in Romney's direction.
flamingdem
(39,313 posts)Though that might also equate to the the differential of those whose vote is suppressed!
Ninga
(8,275 posts)in several other states as well.
Comrade_McKenzie
(2,526 posts)Sharing one phone line or not necessarily voting in unison.