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pscot

(21,024 posts) Tue Oct 30, 2012, 10:34 AM Oct 2012

2

Today's Electoral College map

According to Dr.Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium.

16 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Today's Electoral College map (Original Post) pscot Oct 2012 OP

I think my daughter can draw the outline of the country better than that snooper2 Oct 2012 #1

Is that sarcasm? Motown_Johnny Oct 2012 #4

yes, it was snooper2 Oct 2012 #11

I so appreciate the distortion based on population Nancy Waterman Oct 2012 #2

Note that Wyoming pscot Oct 2012 #7

So Obama needs NC and VA to win? democrat_patriot Oct 2012 #3

I think that map, as shown, is 290 Obama 220 Romney 28 unassigned Motown_Johnny Oct 2012 #5

As colored, Obama wins. Hosnon Oct 2012 #9

Nope! That's the best part demwing Oct 2012 #10

What does he consider a "safe" EV? Hosnon Oct 2012 #6

I Must Not Be Getting The Right Shades Of Blue... SingleSeatBiggerMeat Oct 2012 #8

That map looks about right to me marions ghost Oct 2012 #12

I'd say he wins Virginia. Florida will be close. nyquil_man Oct 2012 #15

Electoral-vote.com has it at 280-235-23 today Angleae Oct 2012 #13

Take the average of the Kerry '04/Obama '08 and Bush '04/McCain '08 votes nyquil_man Oct 2012 #14

Nate is giving us a 61,8% chance of taking VA Hamlette Oct 2012 #16

snooper2

(30,151 posts)

1. I think my daughter can draw the outline of the country better than that

Reply to pscot (Original post)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 10:36 AM

Oct 2012

And she's not even three yet

Motown_Johnny

(22,308 posts)

4. Is that sarcasm?

Reply to snooper2 (Reply #1)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 10:38 AM

Oct 2012

Sometimes it is hard to tell without the emote.

Obviously the states are drawn in proportion to their electoral votes.

snooper2

(30,151 posts)

11. yes, it was

Reply to Motown_Johnny (Reply #4)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 10:54 AM

Oct 2012

I start slow in the morning and it gets better as the day wears on

Nancy Waterman

(6,407 posts)

2. I so appreciate the distortion based on population

Reply to pscot (Original post)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 10:37 AM

Oct 2012

Otherwise, the red is overwhelming. thanks.

pscot

(21,024 posts)

7. Note that Wyoming

Reply to Nancy Waterman (Reply #2)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 10:46 AM

Oct 2012

Is slightly smaller than Washington D.C., yet they have 2 (two) senators and D.C. has none.

democrat_patriot

(2,774 posts)

3. So Obama needs NC and VA to win?

Reply to pscot (Original post)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 10:38 AM

Oct 2012

And Romney needs like the entire Northeast?

Motown_Johnny

(22,308 posts)

5. I think that map, as shown, is 290 Obama 220 Romney 28 unassigned

Reply to democrat_patriot (Reply #3)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 10:43 AM

Oct 2012

The safe states are only the dark blue/red

Hosnon

(7,800 posts)

9. As colored, Obama wins.

Reply to democrat_patriot (Reply #3)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 10:47 AM

Oct 2012

The light blue is apparently not considered "safe".

demwing

(16,916 posts)

10. Nope! That's the best part

Reply to democrat_patriot (Reply #3)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 10:52 AM

Oct 2012

This map shows Obama with 290 EV, if all the currently Dem leaning (light blue) states hold fast. In this scenario, Obama can lose VA and NC and still win.

If Obama adds VA, its 303 EV for the win. If he also ads FL, it's 332 EV. Toss in NC, and you're looking at 347 EV.

I'd call that a blow out, but I'll still take our current 290 and go home happy

Hosnon

(7,800 posts)

6. What does he consider a "safe" EV?

Reply to pscot (Original post)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 10:46 AM

Oct 2012

Cause the blue states on this map add up to 290.

I guess anything above 80%?

SingleSeatBiggerMeat

(220 posts)

8. I Must Not Be Getting The Right Shades Of Blue...

Reply to pscot (Original post)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 10:46 AM

Oct 2012

Because this map appears to have Obama with 275 without IA, CO, VA, or NC

marions ghost

(19,841 posts)

12. That map looks about right to me

Reply to pscot (Original post)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 10:55 AM

Oct 2012

Only I might put FL in the tossup category with NC and VA--those are the three (??????????) states

Those states aren't necessary for Obama to win, fortunately--but sure would be nice to get at least one.

nyquil_man

(1,443 posts)

15. I'd say he wins Virginia. Florida will be close.

Reply to marions ghost (Reply #12)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 01:52 AM

Oct 2012

North Carolina looks like a longshot right now.

Angleae

(4,482 posts)

13. Electoral-vote.com has it at 280-235-23 today

Reply to pscot (Original post)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 01:44 AM

Oct 2012

303-220-15 if you ignore rasmussen

www.electoral-vote.com

nyquil_man

(1,443 posts)

14. Take the average of the Kerry '04/Obama '08 and Bush '04/McCain '08 votes

Reply to pscot (Original post)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 01:50 AM

Oct 2012

and you get a map similar to this. Dem 290-Rep 248.

Hamlette

(15,412 posts)

16. Nate is giving us a 61,8% chance of taking VA

Reply to pscot (Original post)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 01:53 AM

Oct 2012

he's not had it a toss up for a week or more...

He gives Mitt NC and FL

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