Latest Zogby Polls for OH, FL and VA

[RandySF]

Ohio:
Obama 50%
Romney 46%

"Even though Obama's job performance (48% Approve/49% Disapprove) and re-elect (45%-46%) are upside down, he has opened up a slightly bigger lead in Ohio by virtue of taking the lead among independents (8 points), widening his lead among women (11 points), and consolidating his support among African Americans and young voters to percentages closer to what he did in 2008. He also leads among Catholics by 9 points and scoring 39% (to Romney's 58%) among evangelicals."

Florida:
Romney 48%
Obama 47%

"Obama and Romney are in a dead heat among men and women. While Obama leads a few points among independents, Romney has an even stronger lead among Republicans than Obama has among Democrats. Romney is over performing the GOP's share from 2008 among young voters, but Obama is outperforming his own numbers among evangelicals. Romney has especially grown his lead among NASCAR fans, a group he had been lagging. The difference right now is the extremely important Creative Class where the two candidates are pretty much tied. Obama had a huge advantage among these voters in 2008, which was a critical part of his victory coalition in the battleground states."

Virginia:
Obama 48%
Romney 46%

"In Virginia, Obama has also pulled ahead by 9 points among independents, women 54%-42%, and is ahead 96% to 2% among African Americans. Obama is polling 42% (much higher than 2008) among evangelicals (to Romney's 55%). Is that the Mormon factor? With three minor candidates each polling 1%, Obama leads by a little more. Romney leads among Virginians who have already voted and among those who are definitely voting. Obama has a wide lead among those who say they are "very likely" to vote. Will they come out on Election Day?"

[win_in_06]

1. It's all about turnout now. VOTE! VOTE! VOTE! n/t

[Lex]

2. Looks good. Ohio is still solid, Virginia looks good, and even Florida

is do-able, perhaps.

[LisaL]

3. FL is do-able.

Several polls show it's even.
Which means it's all up to GOTV efforts.

[BlueStreak]

6. Romney hanging out in Ohio is a "Hail Mary" play

If Romney really thought he was within striking distance in Ohio, he'd be back down in Florida trying to nail down that state.

Instead he is pinning all of his hopes on being to get Ohio and he is just hoping that Florida goes Romney.

The move to early voting makes things much more interesting because in the old days, he could have worked Ohio for a few days and then gone back to do a final push in Florida. But with early voting, you give up something every day you can't get back to a hot spot.

[rso]

4. florida

Voted yesterday in Florida. By chatting with people on the long line, it's clear that Obama can win Florida.

[kansasobama]

5. Looking good

I know things have tightened in MN and PA and OH. But, tighten is not the same thing as leading. Obama still leads in VA and OH. That early vote in VA is going to be huge. Watch out.

FL - We have not been able to do as well in the I-4 Corridor. If we can somehow increase our advantage there, then we could get very close.

Keep fingers crossed. FL better see what is happening in NJ. They have seen this before and they want a President.