NV: Republicans have most robust day yet in Clark, still trail by 48,000 voters

[RandySF]

I'm sure some Democrats are nervous after Monday's early voting numbers came in, showing they had only eked out a 1,600-voted victory in a county where they had regularly been piling up daily margins two and three times that number.

What does it mean?

Hard to tell with one day's data. But it could mean the GOP ground game is going to produce record turnout for the base. It could mean the Republicans are so emphasizing early voting that the GOP's Election Day advantage will not be as large. And it could mean that it was just one day, and the pattern will reassert itself today.

What's clear is that the Democrats will not get close to the 83,000-voter margin they held at the end of early voting in the wave election of 2008 -- nor do I think they expected to. The Democrats continue to hang tough in Washoe -- the Republicans won Monday by about 150 votes, breaking a four-day streak by the Democrats. But it's very close in Washoe, with no sign of a big win either way for the presidential candidates.

So the Clark firewall is holding, but it's not, as I have said throughout, impregnable. And the Republicans are showing signs of increasing their turnout enough to make this interesting up and down the ticket.

Remember: The second week of early voting is always bigger than the first -- Monday was almost as big as the first day 10 days ago. If the GOP continues to expand its turnout edge, my guess is Democrats will get even more skittish.

On the other hand, that's where that registration edge becomes so important. And, finally, the real question is whether we are seeing foreshadowing of an expanded overall turnout or the GOP putting such an emphasis on early voting this cycle that it will peter out by Nov. 6.


http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/day-10-republicans-have-most-robust-day-yet-clark-still-trail-48000-voters#.UI_7tH15S10

[flowomo]

1. This analysis doesn't address an important point,

which is also absent in the analysis of many other "early turnout" stats. The dropoff in Dem participation, and the rise in GOP participation is troublesome, and not unexpected. But a key question is what percentage of each party's voters are voting the party line -- and what are those 61,254 "others" doing (18 percent of the total!)? Sure, you can make a pretty good guess based on party ID, but crossovers, and especially those "others," could make a big difference in a close count.