Like this: Charnin Election Model: Obama has 306 expected EV; 97% win probability

[questionseverything]

http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/10/17/update-daily-presidential-true-voteelection-fraud-forecast-model/


boy i hope this model is right..i am seriously scared of the romney/ryans of the world

[Logical]

1. Who is this person?

[slackmaster]

3. Richard Charnin is a mathematician who was banned from DU2 years ago

His handle was TruthIsAll.

[BlueCaliDem]

6. Why was TruthIsAll banned??

He was one of the best mathematician on DU.

[slackmaster]

10. He was banned for the way he dealt with a bad case of constipation IIRC

He worked it out with a pencil.

[BlueCaliDem]

15. ???

Oooo...keh.

[questionseverything]

17. just one example of an incorrect electronic result

http://www.bradblog.com/?p=9221

[Ellipsis]

21. Statistician. And his tenacity after many days in the hospital I don't doubt is what kept him alive

It's all good. He's still around.

Passion does not always equate to fact especially when math is not physical proof but theory, however logical.

In his disbelief that others would take objection to his cyphrin' he became shall we say argumentative to the point of personal attacks... he let words on the "light screen" counter to his opinion get to his ego.


It was a different time

[amuse bouche]

8. I used to read his posts

Why on Earth was he banned?

[LondonReign2]

9. I recall his posts

Why the heck was he banned?

Anyway, IIRC, TIA was heavily into mathematical models showing how the previous elections were stolen. Does his current forecast assume a fair election? Does it factor in voter suppression and vote-stealing machines?

[questionseverything]

11. he says the chances of a fair election are not good

3) In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, 226 of 274 exit polls red-shifted to the Republicans. Only about 137 would normally be expected to red-shift. The probability is zero.
4) 126 of the 274 exit polls exceeded the margin of error. Only 14 (5%) would normally be expected. The probability is ZERO.
5) 123 of the 126 exit polls that exceeded the margin of error red-shifted to the Republicans. The probability is ZERO.

[questionseverything]

14. greg palast has concerns too!

http://truth-out.org/news/item/11500-greg-palast-on-how-the-gop-is-planning-to-steal-the-2012-election

[regnaD kciN]

2. Sam Wang just updated...

Re-elect odds up to 93%/98% at PEC.

[pointsoflight]

4. Ah, that guy must be thin and effeminate.

[flamingdem]

16. +1 lol!

[slackmaster]

5. Typical Charninesque post-hoc analysis

If Obama wins, he'll say "See, I told you he would win!"

If something else happens, he'll say "See, I told you the election was rigged!"

[questionseverything]

18. 2004 and 2008 Election Models

The 2004 model matched the unadjusted exit polls. Kerry had 51.7% and 337 electoral votes. But the election was stolen. Kerry had 48.3% recorded. View the 2004 Electoral and popular vote trend
The 2008 model exactly matched Obama’s 365 EV. The National model exactly matched his official recorded 52.9% share; the State model projected 53.1%. His official margin was 9.5 million votes.
Obama had 58.0% in the unadjusted, weighted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) which exactly matched the post-election True Vote Model. Obama’s 23 million True Vote margin was too big to steal.

[RomneyLies]

7. I read a bit of your link

It makes me think I don't have enough tinfoil.

[questionseverything]

12. just trying to look at all possibilities

i became interested in vote counting after i watched hacking democracy years ago and more than disturbed when my small mid western town hired an out of state service to report our votes,then that out of state company was bought by a spanish company and it's like wow,how far from control of our elections can we get?

[questionseverything]

13. srry so slow finding links

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20120111005635/en/SCYTL-Acquires-SOE-Software-Leading-Election-Software

[tritsofme]

19. However there is a 99.9998874% chance

He is full of it.

[questionseverything]

20. so show us the math that refutes this

3) In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, 226 of 274 exit polls red-shifted to the Republicans. Only about 137 would normally be expected to red-shift. The probability is zero.
4) 126 of the 274 exit polls exceeded the margin of error. Only 14 (5%) would normally be expected. The probability is ZERO.
5) 123 of the 126 exit polls that exceeded the margin of error red-shifted to the Republicans. The probability is ZERO.

[Ellipsis]

23. Unfortunately probability is not fact.

[pa28]

22. That's with a totally clean election.

He seems to think if you factor in the usual "red shift" between exit polls and actual results it's effectively a tossup.

[questionseverything]

24. yes,he is warning us

and if you go to blackboxvoting.org there are several simple things the average person can do to help prevent the "red shift"...things as simple as being at your own precincts poll closing and documenting the numbers the machines report,making sure the number of partcipating voters is high enough to cover the reported votes and then checking your municipalites web site and making sure the results you received at the precinct match what is reported..so the numbers do not spin backwards as they did in monroe ark


http://www.bradblog.com/?p=7875