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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsEzra Klein: The Nate Silver Backlash
Which brings me to the backlash against Nate Silver.
. . .
So before we deal with anything Silver has specifically said, its worth taking in the surrounding landscape: Every major political betting market and every major forecasting tool is predicting an Obama victory right now, and for the same reason: Obama remains ahead in enough states that, unless the polls are systematically wrong, or they undergo a change unlike any weve yet seen in the race, Obama will win the election.
Its important to be clear about this: If Silvers model is hugely wrong if all the models are hugely wrong, and the betting markets are hugely wrong its because the polls are wrong. Silvers model is, at this point, little more than a sophisticated form of poll aggregation.
But its just as important to be clear about this: If Mitt Romney wins on election day, it doesnt mean Silvers model was wrong. After all, the model has been fluctuating between giving Romney a 25 percent and 40 percent chance of winning the election. Thats a pretty good chance! If you told me I had a 35 percent chance of winning a million dollars tomorrow, Id be excited. And if I won the money, I wouldnt turn around and tell you your information was wrong. Id still have no evidence Id ever had anything more than a 35 percent chance.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/30/the-nate-silver-backlash/
cthulu2016
(10,960 posts)If that were doable the lines for lottery tickets and slot machines would be considerably shorter.
And Ezra's point is missed by both sides. I suspect that most DUers don't really grok how bad a 75% chance is in a life or death matter like avoiding a Romney Presidency.
SubgeniusHasSlack
(276 posts)blatantly steal this election.
We will not take it like the sheep we were in 2000.
Burn, baby, burn.
Jackpine Radical
(45,274 posts)I don't see it that way--more like a rational interpretation of what a statement about the odds actually means.