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NRaleighLiberal

(60,014 posts)
Tue Oct 30, 2012, 05:54 PM Oct 2012

The numbers are improving and look very nice at the Princeton site

Princeton Election Consortium
A first draft of electoral history

As of October 30, 4:59PM EDT

Obama: 303

Romney: 235

Meta-margin: Obama +2.30%
Probability of Obama re-election:

Random Drift 93%

Bayesian Prediction 98%

Hoping the 538 numbers show a similar upturn, but this is just fine for a Tuesday afternoon, one week from the big day!

http://election.princeton.edu/electoral-college-map/

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The numbers are improving and look very nice at the Princeton site (Original Post) NRaleighLiberal Oct 2012 OP
538 probably won't... regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #1
. NRaleighLiberal Oct 2012 #2
Another good site to watch 2roos Oct 2012 #3

regnaD kciN

(26,044 posts)
1. 538 probably won't...
Tue Oct 30, 2012, 06:06 PM
Oct 2012

...because PEC uses only state polling, while Nate factors in national ones, which were mediocre at best for the President today. I'd expect 538 to remain about where it is, plus or minus a couple of points.

NRaleighLiberal

(60,014 posts)
2. .
Tue Oct 30, 2012, 06:08 PM
Oct 2012
thanks for the comments....figure we should see the 538 numbers by 10 PM or so. I can't wait for this to be over!
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