Survey USA has Obama up 48-45 in Ohio.

[RandySF]

It's Barack Obama 48%, Mitt Romney 45% in SurveyUSA's penultimate tracking poll of the state of Ohio, unchanged from last week, and barely changed over the past month. 4 times in October SurveyUSA has polled Ohio for WCMH-TV in Columbus, and 4 times Barack Obama has led, though always inside of any survey's margin of possible error. Obama has never polled below 45%, Romney has never polled above 45%.

As evidence of how important each Buckeye vote is, half of Ohio voters tell SurveyUSA they have been contacted by both campaigns for President. Another 18% have been contacted by just the Romney campaign, and another 15% have been contacted by just the Obama campaign. That leaves just 1 out of 6 Ohio voters who say they have not been contacted by either campaign for President.

Voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot vote 56% to 40% for Obama. Voters who tell SurveyUSA they will vote on Election day vote 50% to 41% for Romney. Independents today break 48% to 37% for Romney. Romney leads today, as he has in each of the 4 polls, on which candidate would do a better job balancing the federal budget. Obama leads today, as he has in each of the 4 polls, on which candidate is more in touch with the average voter.

In an election for United States Senator from Ohio today, Democrat Sherrod Brown edges Republican Josh Mandel 46% to 41%. Week-on-week, Brown is up 3 points, Mandel is down 1 point. Week-on-week, Brown has gained ground among both men and women, young and old.



http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=11cca51d-06ab-40f5-8ba1-0c8ddc33d855

[Drunken Irishman]

1. I'll take it.

[blue-kite]

6. I will second that!

[jezebel]

2. Why is Romney up with independents in most polls? This is what worries me.

[Jennicut]

7. The number of independents has become larger and include more conservatives.

Per Pew:

As the number of independents has grown, the ranks of the independents include more moderates and conservatives. Currently, 18% are moderate independents, 11% are conservatives and 8% are liberals. Six years ago, 15% of the public was made up moderate independents, 8% conservative independents and 7% liberals.

http://www.people-press.org/2012/06/04/section-9-trends-in-party-affiliation/

[orpupilofnature57]

3. What's the difference between a poll and a survey ?

[Jennicut]

4. I like Brown's numbers in this poll.

How many Romney voters show up on election day is the question.

Some polls have him closer then other ones but Brown has always led in this race, at least since September.

Not surprised by Obama ahead by 3. It fits most of the other polls out there...except Ramussen! A tie or Obama ahead in all the Ohio polls in the last three weeks by all the polls.

[SCliberal091294]

5. ..

Many Republicans and Tea baggers will call themselves independents.

[Liberal_in_LA]

8. good poll numbers

[20895DEM]

9. Couple observations ...

This is the 4th SurveyUSA poll that Obama has led in Ohio and the second where he is been +3

While I recognize that these are two completely separate data sets, I think that they under sampled people who have already voted.

SurveyUSA poll from 10/20 - 10/22

Already voted = 26%
Obama: 58%, Romney: 39%
Obama +19%

SurveyUSA poll from 10/26 - 10/29

Already voted = 25%
Obama: 56%, Romney: 40%
Obama +16%

So after about a week 1% fewer people have already voted.