We are ahead in North Carolina based on all polls excluding automated landline-only robopolls

[Texas Lawyer]

There has been some discussion about the effect of polling that includes cell phone users and polling that systematically excludes cell phone users:

Cell phones: why we think Obama will win the popular vote, too

In the last half of 2011, 32 percent of adults were cell-phone only according the Center for Disease Control that is the official source on these issues; 16 percent were cell phone mostly. But the proportion cell-phone only has jumped about 2.5 points every six months since 2008 – and is probably near 37 percent now. And pay attention to these numbers for the 2011 adult population:

· More than 40 percent of Hispanic adults are cell phone only (43 percent).

· A disproportionate 37 percent of African Americans are cell only.

· Not surprisingly, almost half of those 18 to 24 years are cell only (49 percent), but an astonishing 60 percent of those 25 to 29 years old only use cell phones.

· But it does not stop there: of those 30 to 34 years, 51 percent are cell only.

You have to ask, what America are the current polls sampling if they are overwhelmingly dependent on conventional samples or automated calling with no cell phones?

http://www.democracycorps.com/In-the-News/cell-phones-why-we-think-obama-will-win-the-popular-vote-too/

North Carolina is the best illustration of this phenomenon.

If you look at all phone and mixed-media polling in North Carolina (including both left-leaning and right-leaning pollsters), we are 1.1% AHEAD. See http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-north-carolina-president-romney-vs-obama#!estimate=custom&hiddenpollsters=rasmussen,ppp-d,gravis-marketing,civitas-r-surveyusa,yougov This is important because these polls are based on the most accurate methodologies (some include cell phone users and some do not, but they are all more representative in their sampling than landline-only robopolls).

But if you look at just the automated robocall pollsters who do not include any cell phone users (which is a nonpartisan polling weakness that taints both Democratic leaning PPP and Repub leaning Rasmussen), we are 6.3% BEHIND. See http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-north-carolina-president-romney-vs-obama#!smoothing=less&estimate=custom&hiddenpollsters=elon,grove-insight-dproject-new-america,civitas-r-national-research-r,tel-opinion-research-rnorth-carolina-republican-party,high-point-universityunc,arg,nbcwsjmarist,high-point-universityfox-8,cnntimeorc,project-new-americamyers-d,nbcmarist,yougov,surveyusa,purple-strategies,high-point-universitysurveyusa

The polling that gets most coverage in the news media is the aggregate numbers which blend the more accurate polls (where we lead) with the antiquated landline robopolls (where the race looks gloomy for Democrats). Aggregating the good data with the least reliable data results in an average where we are slightly behind, and the news media include the bad data in with the good to appear journalisticly neutral (rather than selecting reliable data over all data).

Keep this in mind when you look at the polling numbers and you hear some talking head suggest that North Carolina "leans Romney." The only part of North Carolina that "leans Romney" is those folks who receive landline phone calls and who are willing to sit through an automated poll. AMONG ALL OTHER POLLSTERS, WE LEAD IN NORTH CAROLINA.

[Texas Lawyer]

1. edited title to make it more accurate