New poll: Democrat Charlie Crist holds lead over Ron DeSantis in Florida Governor Race, 51-49!!

[NewsCenter28]

Last edited Wed Jun 8, 2022, 03:23 AM - Edit history (1)

http://thelistenergroup.com/charlie-crist-leading-ron-desantis-in-very-close-race/

This is huge. Could both Abbott and DeSantis be going down to November defeats?!

[dchill]

1. I have (guarded) hope.

[BootinUp]

104. Me too. :)

[Celerity]

2. Methodology

The persons sampled were Florida likely voters with a voting score of 100% for the primary and general election cycles. The voters called were those only with landlines and were called using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system and were called during the hours of 4PM to 8PM on May 27-June 4, 2022. The Margin of Error for this study is +/- 3.67% with a confidence level of 95%.

[Novara]

15. I haven't trusted polls since before 2016

All polls are biased. There can be unintended bias or it can be blatant. It's all in how questions are asked and who they ask.

It appears this was not representative. Not everybody has landlines and even people who do, don't answer them when it's an unknown caller.

This is well within the margin of error. Way too close to crow about, IMO.

[Alexander Of Assyria]

51. The methodology of this poll is sound. Actual landlines and people, not guesstimates.

Not all polls are purposely biased…pollsters make a ton of money for a reason.

[reACTIONary]

54. +10 nt

[Novara]

65. As I said, sometimes the bias is unintentional

Here you're only polling people with landlines who will pick up a call from an unknown caller. That isn't representative of people who don't have landlines, who aren't available from 4 to 8 pm, and who never pick up unknown numbers.

I didn't say that methodology wasn't sound; but it is imperfect. That's why there exists a margin or error. Polls ALWAYS have bias, whether it is intentional or not. It isn't possible to get a perfect poll.

And at any rate, the results are well within the margin of error, so we'd be wise to take this with a grain of salt. It would be fantastic if the tiny gap between them would widen past the margin of error. But it's good that they are so close and even a small lead is encouraging. We still have work to do. I'd love to see DeSatan go down in flames.

[Lucky Luciano]

71. The most obvious bias is that landlines...

…are probably either older people or wealthier people as most middle and lower income people only have cell phones. I would think that skews in desan$&$&’s favor.

[honest.abe]

18. One year ago this same outfit did the same poll and Crist was down nearly 10 points.

http://thelistenergroup.com/florida-governor-ron-desantis-hold-comfortable-lead-vs-democrat-party-challengers/

So if nothing else the trend is good.

[Celerity]

94. They have done 6 polls now, and that first one was the only one Crist was down in, he had a 10 to 14

point lead in all the rest since then (Crist was up 12 points in the last one before this one), until now, so the trend is not that good at all, BUT we need to see the next one they do in order to establish a more complete trendline for this polling firm's polls.

[HUAJIAO]

38. Landlines? Who has landlines. I'm guessing old folks, like me.

I never use mine.

[dameatball]

49. i have both, but I have no idea why.

[True Blue American]

84. Same here, except my landline has a block button, until you get to 100.

I have yet to figure out how to clear all of them at once to start over.

[dameatball]

90. Ha! Somewhere in a box I still have my instructions. Saw them when I moved in 2019.

[True Blue American]

98. :)

I have a drawer where I keep instructions.. Comes in handy when I have to change the clocks. Written in Chinese.

Yesterday I decided to blowout the storage room under my sun deck. I brought one from the garage, 2 flights of stairs, through 2 rooms. Down the stairs, back up to plug it in. Could not figure how to get the plug open. Light bulb, outlet inside door, down the steps, blower actually worked. Blow it one way, comes back the other. Finally blew it all out. Up the stairs, pulled plug, down the stairs. Placed on a table, shut the doors. Found 4 weeds the landscaper did not know were weeds.

Up the stairs. Took 2 allergy pills, sneezing. Back hurts.

You ever have a day like that?

[dameatball]

112. Next time let me know and you can borrow my grandson for that stuff.

[mahina]

99. I kept my landline for years to have communication in the event

Of a bad storm

Would like it now. But not enough to spend the money.

[Alexander Of Assyria]

52. Meaning older folks were polled mainly...older folk vote more Republican...so like that we ahead.

[SergeStorms]

70. I used to keep both...

up until 3 years ago. Then I noticed almost every call on the land line was a telemarketer or scam artist, so I got rid of it. A lot fewer scam calls and telemarketers on the cell phone.

[we can do it]

89. Older people generally vote R more than D.

[uberblonde]

91. It's a small sample.

I wouldn't get excited just yet.

[Celerity]

95. This newest poll from them is hardly reason to get excited, as in the last poll this same firm did,

Crist was up 12 points, and he was up 10, 10, and 14 points in the ones before that (same polling firm). Other than one other single poll (a St Pete poll in the beginning of August, 2021, that had Crist up by 1 point) this polling firm's polls are the only polls who have shown a Crist with a lead the entire time (going all the way back to February 2021, long before Crist even declared). This polling firm faces up as a large outlier.


see

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100216773171#post94

[wnylib]

106. "Only with landlines" skews the results.

I want to believe the poll and do not want to put a damper on our hopes, but we also need to recognize the variability of poll accuracy.

[Celerity]

110. the poll itself is a damper (as Crist has dropped 10 points from the last poll by the same firm)

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100216773171#post95

[blm]

4. 🤞🏽

[JustAnotherGen]

5. I don't trust polls - I'm that person

But this made my day!

[honest.abe]

6. I know polls are fickle but this is big.

I have always thought Crist would be our best contender. I know others here dont like him but if he wins, this really changes things in Florida.

[FBaggins]

7. Takes the lead?

He was up by 13 in their last poll that I saw (Feb).

Falling from a 13 point lead to a 1 point lead can't be described as "taking the lead"... particularly when no other poll matches.

[honest.abe]

8. Crist has never been in the lead in any major poll vs Desantis

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_crist-7324.html

[PortTack]

22. RCP leans right..has for sometime

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/real-clear-politics/

[honest.abe]

26. Are you saying there is a poll that has Crist up by double digits in Feb that RCP is hiding?

[PortTack]

33. No ..read the link it's from the most trusted name in fact checking

IT LEANS RIGHT!

[brooklynite]

32. They have a bias in their editorial content; their poll reporting doesn't

They report all polls and average the most recent ones.

[FBaggins]

36. He still hasn't

This isn't a major poll.

[NewsCenter28]

78. Good news for the Democrats seems to make you sad-also you are nitpicking

If I changed the OP title to "has" lead, would you get off my fucking back? Only other thing I can think of is that your preferred narrative is that the Dems are doomed in November and this upsets that little narrative.

[NewsCenter28]

79. Why the fuck would 538 post an illegitimate poll then?

And don't you dare play your little game of intellectual superiority with me. I have you figured out and I could go fact for fact item by item in a contest to see who knows more about American political history and current American politics with you.

Anyway, get the fuck off my back. Also, why are you so ENRAGED with me about being excited about a poll that shows a Democrat leading in a marquee November governorship race?

[Lochloosa]

9. He may have been up 13 for the primary, but never for the GE.

[Demsrule86]

17. I think this is good news.

[FBaggins]

37. A poll between DeSantis/Crist couldn't be "for the primary"

http://thelistenergroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Florida-Governor-Ron-DeSantis-Losing-to-Crist-and-Tied-with-Fried-According-to-Latest-Poll-1.pdf

[honest.abe]

45. My apologies. I had not seen that poll.

[Polybius]

74. It's from the same company, The Listener Group

So Crist has been ahead in two polls, both from the same polling company that no one's ever heard of and RCP and 538 doesn't even list.

[Polybius]

73. Same polling company, The Listener Group

So Crist has been ahead in two polls, and both were from the same polling obscure polling company that Real Clear Politics doesn't even list? Yeah I'm not encouraged at all.

[NewsCenter28]

77. You seem disappointed DeSantis is losing at all-n/t

[NewsCenter28]

80. MY GOD, your attack on me is even more uncalled for now

I JUST FOUND THIS in another reply to the OP:

One year ago this same outfit did the same poll and Crist was down nearly 10 points.

http://thelistenergroup.com/florida-governor-ron-desantis-hold-comfortable-lead-vs-democrat-party-challengers/

So if nothing else the trend is good.

So, your assertion that this group never had Crist leading by less than 13 until now has just fallen flat on it's face.

Also, you've hijacked my thread into a discussion about poll methodology. It's not a welcome hijack.

[NewsCenter28]

27. Ah, I see that you are the proverbial wet blanket

Truly, you cannot look at what is about to occur with Jan 6, Roe and Gun Control, and think the Dems have no chance in November. Not to mention the fact that the generic congressional ballot is truly all over the place right now and DeSantis has gone insane with truly fascist policies in FL in the last few months that could have dented his popularity.

I am not yet ready to concede that 2022 is 1994, and the Democrats are going to suffer the worst midterm in all presidential history.

[ShazzieB]

48. I'm nowhere nearing giving up on the Dems in 2022.

I'm not terribly excited about this particular poll, just because the margins are razor thin. But i think it'll be very interesting to see what the polls are saying after Thursday night, and as the hearings progress.

In the meantime, I remain hopeful. Imo, what usually tends to happen with midterm elections is almost beside the point this time. The current situation, with the insurrection, the congressional hearings, etc., is literally unique in the annals of history.

[sprinkleeninow]

81. "...after Thursday night...."

Hoo boy.

I have a tad of nervousness coupled with anticipation.

[Celerity]

58. yes, this is the only poll Crist ever led in, other than a 1 point lead in a St Pete 08/2021 poll

and Crist is down from a 12 point lead in last The Political Matrix/The Listener Group poll (the OP's poll)

Good news however, is that in the other 'recent' one (Phillips Academy poll in May) DeathSentence was only up by one point

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Florida_gubernatorial_election#Polling_2

[FBaggins]

59. Untrue. See #37

Same polling firm had him up by 13 in their Feb poll

Actually… just see your own table

[Celerity]

61. I said nothing untrue, no clue what you are on about, show me what I said that was untrue

I will break it down

first I said

yes, this is the only poll Crist ever led in, other than a 1 point lead in a St Pete 08/2021 poll

meaning this poll (The Political Matrix/The Listener Group polling firm) is the only firm's polling he has led in

(look at the chart I posted Crist has now led in their last 5 polls, dating all the way back to August 2021 (see below), when he led by 14 points, but this new poll of theirs is a big drop for Crist from their last 4 before it)




I also said other than a one point lead he had in the St Pete poll (the only other polling firm that has had a poll that had him leading at one point, and that was ages ago), here it is:



so that is all true


next I said

and Crist is down from a 12 point lead in last The Political Matrix/The Listener Group poll (the OP's poll)

here it is




so that is also true


finally I said

Good news however, is that in the other 'recent' one (Phillips Academy poll in May) DeathSentence was only up by one point

here that poll is:



so that is also true


bottom line:


I said nothing untrue in that reply of mine

[FBaggins]

67. Sorry... I think I see the confusion

Note the obvious overlap between "this poll" (i.e., the individual results reported in the OP) vs. "this poll" (i.e., a series of results in the same race reported by the same firm - presumably with consistent methodology)

Now follow the chain of the conversation:

OP - "Crist takes Lead" (note - this has since been corrected on the LG site)

Me - "Takes the lead?" (questioning how that could be true when it's actually worse than their previous result and does not reflect him taking the lead)

You - "Yes - this is the only poll Crist ever led in"

Taking "this poll" in the first sense, that's pretty clearly you agreeing with the OP and claiming that it is in fact the first time he has been in the lead.

Taking "this poll" in the second sense... your post makes perfect sense.

[Celerity]

68. yes, I was agreeing with you (that this latest poll from them is actually not good news, as it

is a very substantial narrowing from their earlier polls)

That is why I was confused when you said what I said was untrue.

I do blame myself for not being clearer about what I meant by 'the poll' (I meant the poll as a running, continuous entity, ie the polling firm, I did not mean this one, newest singular poll from them)

I apologise for not being clearer, I was trying to ram a lot of info into the subject line, lolol

cheers

Cel

[FBaggins]

102. I'll have to disagree there

It definitely wasn't your fault.

While the first reading above is reasonable with just the parts I mentioned... I also read your 'and Crist is down from a 12 point lead in last... poll' comment and just assumed that you misread it as a DeSantis lead (despite clearly typing Crist). You had to have made a mistake because that conflicted with what I thought you were saying.

I can't see how it didn't cause me to re-read the post before replying. Unlike many here, your posts are always internally consistent and you almost always seem to have the right analysis of political news (by which I of course mean that you usually agree with me).

I usually read the posts I reply to (and my replies) a couple of times through before posting. I don't have a good excuse for why I didn't that time.

[Celerity]

109. all good and thanks for the kind words, I also enjoy your posts

[NewsCenter28]

76. Why are you shitting all over a poll

that has good news for the Democrats? Question, did you think President Biden was going to defeat Dotard in 2020?

[OrlandoDem2]

10. Polls in Florida are a mess. I'm going to simply work my hardest to get DeSantis out!

Gillum was in a comfortable position in 2018 according to the polls. Trump wasn’t expected to make gains in Dade County among Hispanics.

[Demsrule86]

11. That is awesome...God I hope both DeathSantis and Abbot the terrible both go down.

[FoxNewsSucks]

12. Close enough to easily steal.

Floriduh is know for such dirty trickery.

[rubbersole]

63. Count on it.

Charlie Crist is familiar with the political ropes in Florida. But desantis is seriously evil. I wouldn't put anything past him.

[bucolic_frolic]

13. Not yet. It's 5 months out, and it's close, and polls aren't ballots. /nt

[JohnSJ]

19. The fact that it is close is significant. Also, Crist has won a statewide office in Florida before,

and he is a familiar presence among Floridians

[JohnSJ]

14. I really hope so

[JustAnotherGen]

16. In my dream world

We find out that DeSantis is hiding all of Trumps foreign gifts that went missing.

[FakeNoose]

20. Grain of salt - if Repukes are participating in this they're probably lying

No reflection on the Repukes of Florida, and I have no way to know whether they're doing this today. However we all know how they get their jollies by lying to pollsters, especially when the questions are about D vs R candidates.

It's in their nature to lie every chance they get. Remember when all the polls in 2016 said Hillary was going to win by a landslide? That's what I'm talking about. Repukes lie to pollsters.

[honest.abe]

24. The polls in 2016 did not show Hillary winning by a landslide.

The final polling average had her up 3.2%. She actually won by 2.1%. The EC gave Trump the win.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

[FakeNoose]

28. In the early polls she was way ahead

Nobody even took Chump seriously as a candidate until the summer of 2016. Even then he was behind Hillary, that's why he was talking about it being "rigged." Even Chump thought he was going to lose.

[NutmegYankee]

31. Not really. She had leads like 13 points, but she was at 42% with 16% undecided.

I consider a large undecided group to be MAGAts just lying.

[Demsrule86]

34. She almost did win...and I think Comey announcing the investigation that last week did her in.

I think she was ahead, but the constant attacks from the right and the left took a toll in the General.

[sprinkleeninow]

82. Comey put the kabosh on HRC's win.

I will never forget.

His action was palpable beyond a doubt.

[StevieM]

107. It amazes me that people downplay how significant Comey was.

He dominated that election from start to finish. The last minute intervention was enormous, and undoubtedly changed that result of the election. But his July press conference did even more damage, leading people to believe that she somehow got away with something. Then again, there never should have been a public investigation that focused on HRC to begin with.

[StevieM]

108. There is no maybe about it.

It makes no sense to doubt that Comey altered the election result from what it otherwise would have been. And that is just based on what he did at the very end. Let's not forget how devastating his July press conference was. Comey dominated that election from start to finish.

[oldsoftie]

87. But early polls are near useless. Bill Clinton was WAY down in early polls

Carter was beating Reagan in early polling. etc etc. MOST voters just don't pay much attention this early. DUers do.

[oldsoftie]

88. People forget the final polling was within the "margin of error"

[PortTack]

21. OMG let it be so... knocking deathsatan out would be a bigger blow to the cult gqp and their future

Than the orange mass not running. If he loses the governorship, he no doubt will have no platform come ‘24.

www.Removeron.org

Give if you can

[TeamProg]

23. god let's hope so.. n/t

[empedocles]

25. C'mon trump. Stomp on your competitor desatan

[Baitball Blogger]

29. Would be interesting to hear who Crist comes out to appeal to.

Would love to hear a more broad appeal.

[pfitz59]

30. Let's hope so

DeathSantis has to go

[imanamerican63]

35. This is good, but.....

I don’t think DeSantis really cares? He is eyeing the big bigger prize, the White House and that is even a bigger problem!

[wryter2000]

40. Woot!

Now if Beto were to take t he lead, too, that would be something.

[Mad_Machine76]

41. Gosh I hope so

Good news and reason for (cautious) optimism

[AllyCat]

43. Yaaassss!

DeSatan will figure out how to cheat. It’s what he does.

[awesomerwb1]

44. Polls are always right!!! nt

[BunnyMcGee]

46. This is huge. Could both Abbott and DeSantis be going down to November defeats?!

Please, make it so.

[Lunabell]

47. Hell yes!

I'm doing my part! Crist has the best chance to defeat little trump wannabe. Corporations, moderate Democrats and independents like him a lot. I'm willing to let go of my lefty progressive agenda to defeat fascism and defend democracy!!

[tavernier]

50. I was polled two days ago!!

I wonder if that’s the poll? There were several De Satan questions. Can you guess how I answered?

[Evolve Dammit]

53. Here's hoping

[TigressDem]

55. K&R K& R K&R K&R K& R K&R K&R K& R K&R

[Cha]

56. OMG! Wouldn't that be Grand..

Hope it's a Fair Election and Not a Fascist POS takeover.

💙💛

[Chainfire]

57. If things get too tight for DeSantis' comfort, he will probably put his private army on Crist.

'Cause that is the kind of guy he is...

[Bev54]

75. Yeah, he'll try pulling a Putin and throw him in jail, he probably thinks he is

powerful enough to do it.

[LuvLoogie]

60. Until Floridians and Texans change enough that the mainstream

notices, they will continue to elect fascists, dumbasses, and fascist dumbasses.

[Warpy]

62. Charlie wasn't awful

My dad didn't like him because he couldn't get the repeal of the hated intangibles tax through the lege, something Jeb Bush managed to do because the lege didn't fight him on it. It was what Charlie Crist ran ond he was out when he couldn't deliver, being labeled a RINO along the way by the bible beater part of the GOP. Crist left the GOP in 2012 and is running as a Democrat.

I imagine this razor thin lead is because De Satan has picked a fight with Disney, the biggest cash cow in Florida, because De Satan hates their LGBT policies.

I wish Republicans in general would realize this country has a government, not a pope.

[Funtatlaguy]

64. Oh please please please make it be so.

[CaptainTruth]

66. DeathSentence only won by 0.4%, about 32,500 votes.

I believe he is beatable.

[murielm99]

93. They'll cheat.

[spanone]

69. Great News

[Skittles]

72. if enough people recognize actual fascism when they see it

YES

go Charlie and Beto!!!

[pressbox69]

83. DeathSantis

has all the charisma of a dead Huey Long backer. Hillary did defeat Tr-lump in the GE but lost the EC.

[Jose Garcia]

85. The company who conducted the poll is a client of the Crist campaign

[RedSpartan]

92. DeSantis will win in a landslide. It's Florida. Focus on other races.

[IngridsLittleAngel]

96. Oh please oh please oh please oh please.. Please DeFeat DeSatan

I'm 3000 miles from Florida and that ugly, fascist, bigoted, bloodthirsty toad is ruining my mental health.... I can't imagine how awful it'd be to be LGBTQ in Florida right now.

Please, voters of Florida.. Contribute to the Rot DeSatan "Retirement Fund."

[BannonsLiver]

100. The know it all cut and paste pissing contest exchange up thread aside

It’s Florida. DeSantis remains the favorite in that race.

[Torchlight]

101. Solid news.

Another reason I tend to discount the armchair prophets who instruct us who can and can't win and where we should send out money instead.

A heady campaign season is coming down on us and no one can predict with any degree of certainty what will happen in the coming months, so I think we're all obligated to separate the editorial chaff from the wheat.

[AnnetteChaffee]

103. YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

[station agent]

105. No shot this ends in utter disappointment /s

[SWBTATTReg]

111. God, what fantastic news. I'm getting my wallet out, I have too many friends in FL that

have lived in fear of this monster and ignorant a&&, who thinks nothing but trampling on the rights of others because simply he doesn't like them (notice the cases he's losing in the Courts)...

[LiberalArkie]

113. DeSantis will get 80% of the tabulated votes