The impact of Kavanaugh's confirmation on the 2018 elections...

[Suburban Warrior]

...may reveal how the reversal of Roe v. Wade could impact this year's midterms

As political analysts seek to understand the possible impact of Roe v. Wade being overturned on this year's midterm elections, some suggest that data from 2018 may reveal possible trends.

In 2018, following the contentious confirmation hearings of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh — who was accused of sexual assault by Christine Ford — 40 Republican US House seats flipped to Democratic candidates. GOP candidates led in polls taken prior to the hearings and went on to lose in November in 27 of those races, indicating increased mobilization among partisan voters following the hearings.

"This is when the midterms were decided. Everything leading up to it was, for many Americans, a gradual erosion of political and societal norms. But nonetheless, it was gradual. Often politically imperceptible. A general state of unease favoring the status quo over an electoral revolution," B.J. Rudell, a political strategist, wrote in an opinion article for The Hill.


https://www.businessinsider.com/electoral-impact-kavanaugh-confirmation-reveal-roe-v-wade-effect-midterms-2022-6?utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=referral&utm_content=topbar

[dweller]

1. Ok now show the repugs who lost that voted for repeal of ACA

with a little ❌




✌🏻

[Effete Snob]

4. That's impressive

[jimfields33]

2. Sounds good. That was Trumps first midterm too.

Shut down his agenda! Great times!!!!

[MerryHolidays]

6. First and ONLY mid-term for Trump! nt

[In It to Win It]

8. ...and even that was too long.

[emulatorloo]

3. Thanks for the history lesson, it is pretty encouraging.

[Wounded Bear]

5. A glimmer of hope for the future...but GOTV! nt

[summer_in_TX]

7. Gotta get 'em registered first.

Since 2020, Texas has 4.3 million fewer registered voters as of the March 2022 primary.

I looked at the state's data from 2014 for primary and general elections to look for patterns. That drop surprised me. However at the end of every even-numbered year in our state new voter registration cards are mailed out. By law they can't be forwarded and are returned to Elections Offices where they go into a state of Suspension. If they show up and vote in the same county, they return to active status. But many move, and the pandemic may have caused more mobility than usual. Students withdrawing from college or studying online from home. Job losses causing moves, etc. Plus, a whole lot of young apartment dwellers never collect their mail from the mail box centers in their apartment complex (my husband is a retired letter carrier and would complain about having to clean out the boxes at apartment complexes, especially at the end of a semester or month).

That tells me that if we do a huge voter registration push in Texas, especially on college campuses, AND we motivate and turn them out for our candidates that there's hope for Beto and maybe other surprises in store for the GOP. But we don't have a lot of time, voter registration in Texas ends 30 days before Election Day.

I'm a volunteer deputy registrar but do little of it since I have a lot of time committed to other volunteering. But I'm planning to step up. My goal is to carry the forms with me in a side pocket of my handbag so I remember to ask and also to sign up for locations where I can register lots of people (colleges and junior colleges especially).