General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsLast A rated Biden approval poll, pre-Dobbs.
Last edited Mon Jun 27, 2022, 10:18 AM - Edit history (2)
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/biden-approval-0624/
EDIT: The first A rated poll after Dobbs reports 40% approval, 53% disapproval.
Marist has a 1% Republican bias, per 538.
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/npr-pbs-newshour-marist-national-poll-the-overturning-of-roe-v-wade-june-2022/
emulatorloo
(44,124 posts)Raven123
(4,844 posts)bucolic_frolic
(43,166 posts)How is Joe doing now?
When is the shoe on the other foot? They force us to give birth, they meddle in our bodies and lives ... when do we return the pleasure?
JohnSJ
(92,190 posts)for Republican Party candidates
They pride themselves because they predicted the trump win in 2016, saying they were able to extract that from the so-called "shy-trump voter"
538 rates them as C-
and their subsequent polling has demonstrated that.
In 2018 they predicated Kemp would win by at least 12 points. The actually resuts were winning by less than two points.
They predicted that trump would win the 2020 election easily, winning Arizona, FLorida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
They also missed the 2021 Georgia Senate runoff elections
"Trafalgar Group adjusts its polls for a "social desirability bias" effect, the hypothesized tendency of some voters to calibrate their responses to polls towards what they believe the survey taker would like to hear.[4][5][6] It does this by not only asking respondents how they plan to vote, but also how they think their neighbors might vote.[6] Former Democratic Party strategist Ed Kilgore, in New York Magazine in July 2020, criticized Trafalgar's approach, writing, "The Shy Trump Voter may not be entirely a myth, but they're not numerous enough to fill a Trump rally, much less change an election result or rebut a poll."[7] Responding to criticism of Trafalgar's polling methods and its lack of transparency about its methods, Cahaly said in November 2020, "I think weve developed something thats very different from what other people do, and I really am not interested in telling people how we do it. Just judge us by whether we get it right."[8]"
They are about as accurate as Zogby, which isn't very accurate.
The reason he got 2016 right wasn't because of his "remarkable" polling methodology, by Comey
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trafalgar_Group
speak easy
(9,249 posts)The previous A rated poll before that, Quinnipiac turned in similar numbers - 33% approval, 57% dissaproval.
JohnSJ
(92,190 posts)in 2018 and 2020
Take it anyway you want, but I will trust Quinnipiac over Trafalgar because of their methodology, and republican background:
"Trafalgar Group adjusts its polls for a "social desirability bias" effect, the hypothesized tendency of some voters to calibrate their responses to polls towards what they believe the survey taker would like to hear.[4][5][6] It does this by not only asking respondents how they plan to vote, but also how they think their neighbors might vote.[6] Former Democratic Party strategist Ed Kilgore, in New York Magazine in July 2020, criticized Trafalgar's approach, writing, "The Shy Trump Voter may not be entirely a myth, but they're not numerous enough to fill a Trump rally, much less change an election result or rebut a poll."[7] Responding to criticism of Trafalgar's polling methods and its lack of transparency about its methods, Cahaly said in November 2020, "I think weve developed something thats very different from what other people do, and I really am not interested in telling people how we do it. Just judge us by whether we get it right."[8]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trafalgar_Group
speak easy
(9,249 posts)JohnSJ
(92,190 posts)Bidens low polling
What will be interesting is using this as a baseline to see if there will be any effect from the SC decisions on the poll numbers for both the midterms and Biden
What is also interesting is Fox polls historically have been very accurate
Thanks
speak easy
(9,249 posts)ie - disapproval at how the President is perceived to be faring politically. cf Trumpers, who could not give a rats.
JohnSJ
(92,190 posts)trumpers, and most republicans dont give a rats