The polls in Kansas were off by a million miles.

[onecaliberal]

Voter registration is exploding with women. Do not allow the fascist loving media to distract. Let’s keep working. Talk to all of your friends and family. Make sure they understand all of the rules and regulations. Make a plan to vote. Register voters, phone bank. Write post cards. Text voters. Donate all you can.

VOTE.

Edit to add: See #14 for a treasure trove of resources.

[Meadowoak]

1. Polls cannot be trusted anymore.

[TheBlackAdder]

21. Yep. You really don't know who is calling/talking to you or what they will do with your information.

[Meadowoak]

36. Also, people lie to posters, in addition to many posters put

Their thumb on the scale for one party or the other.

[OMGWTF]

42. Exactly! It's called a "Push-Poll" and the questions are skewed.

[NCjack]

72. I lie to RW pollsters.

[Butterflylady]

71. Heck, thato what I have been saying here

Like forever. Too many variables.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

2. Yep,

Last edited Sun Aug 21, 2022, 12:51 PM - Edit history (1)

the repukes grabbed a she tiger by the tail and now they don't know how to let go.

In the alleged words of Adm. Yamamoto after the Pearl Harbor attack:

I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve

Substitute her for him and it's a very accurate statement.

[MLAA]

7. Right on.

[ColinC]

9. All you have to do is look at the chasm between recent election polls and recent elections

...to know that not only are polls still likely off by millions of miles, but the direction is favoring us. Of course things can still change -and they will be indicated by whatever special elections come our way, but for now it is still looking pretty good.

[sheshe2]

18. +1000 👍

[TheBlackAdder]

22. THIS! 👍

[ProfessorGAC]

47. One Problem MCE!

Although the producers of Tora Tora Tora acknowledged it's unlikely he said that, they claimed the quote came from his diary.
But, Japanese historians could find no such evidence in Yamamoto's writings.
It is a great saying, though.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isoroku_Yamamoto%27s_sleeping_giant_quote

[MarineCombatEngineer]

55. Yep,

and that's why I wrote alleged.

It is a great saying, especially in this instance.

[ProfessorGAC]

59. People Were Prone To Believe It...

...because his command of English makes it plausible. He was fluent in English having spent 2 years at Harvard.
The movie producers may have taken liberties, but that's what movie people do!

[MarineCombatEngineer]

60. +100. nt

[calimary]

53. Yep.

DO NOT mess with a righteously angry woman.

We remember. We keep score. And we get stuff done.

[Sky Jewels]

3. Here's a grassroots activism effort that almost anyone can do.

Please share this idea if you're so inclined:

Write messages on sticky notes or removable mailing labels urging people to vote for their rights in November. Personally I like to put them in public restrooms because you've got a captive audience and can reach people who might not otherwise follow politics or vote in elections.

?1660573040

[SheltieLover]

11. Excellent idea!

[KS Toronado]

13. Like the idea

Happen to have a new stack of post-it notes.

[Justice matters.]

31. OP-deserving for a permanent (recurrent) Greatest Page appearance!

Also tell em to register and vote D all down ballots!

[PatrickforB]

34. This is really good. n/t

[duhneece]

43. I love this

I did it on cereal aisles when Kellogg was on strike.
I never thought of it for anything else.
Brilliant

[JudyM]

45. Easy grassroots activism. Love this one: "Abort the GOP!"

[calimary]

49. Holy Cannoli, JudyM! I think I'm in love!

"Abort the GOP!"

Oh MAN! Now THERE's a phrase worth being said, read, and spread!

[JudyM]

50. Me too, that sticky in Sky Jewels' post was an instant winner.

[calimary]

52. Yeah, I saw that, too. GENIUS stuff!

I think I'll start taking a pack of Post-it notes with me when I go out somewhere...

Shrewd Stickies!

Strategic Stickies!

[Hermit-The-Prog]

57. I want that to go 'viral' -- grocery stores, Wal-Mart, everywhere!

Roe, Roe, Roe your vote
against theocracy!
Republicans revoke your rights
and kill democracy!

[Sky Jewels]

58. Thanks for all the nice comments!

Maybe I'll make a separate post with this in GD tomorrow.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

4. A big, fat K&R! n/t

[Demsrule86]

5. This is why I think we will win the House.

[sarcasmo]

6. The polls aren't factoring in new, pissed off voters.

[Indykatie]

8. Polls Will Always Be Way Off When You Have Massive New Voter Registration Numbers

I expect pollsters to miss the huge number of women voting for the first time in the mid-term election this year. They will also miss the anger driving women to the polls.

[PatrickforB]

35. I think you're right. When I contemplate my three daughters,

one is a big Mormon, so no idea where she'll be or whether she'll even vote.

But the other two, and my wife (and me, for that matter), will crawl over broken glass to vote for ANY Democrat on the ballot and against ANY Republican. Doesn't matter - if there is an R behind their name, vote for the other person. If there is neither an R or a D (stupid local regulations designed to keep people from knowing what the party affiliation is, then I reasearch each candidates positions, even call them up and find out, then I let my family know who the liberal candidate is.

[Midnight Writer]

10. Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't a past voting record used to determine "likely voters"?

Lots of new, motivated voters would undermine that supposition.

[onecaliberal]

12. Yes. That's why I've been saying for months that I don't buy the polls.

We’re in uncharted territory on so many levels. As far as women go. We’re not going back. We’re never going to allow men to dictate our lives. Sorry but that boat has sailed and sunk.

[Demsrule86]

44. Yes, this is why 538 will be way off IMHO and even he is showing Democrats leading in

the Generic House polls by a half percent. I expect it is higher than that.

[Tommymac]

14. Get Your wet suits ready...

An absolute treasure trove of information re GOTV is here thanks to DU'er usonian:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217021748



#GOTV2022
#VOTEBLUE2022
#VOTEBLUEPA

[SheltieLover]

17. Great graphic!

Ty for the link. I've bookmarked & kicked for visibility.

[Tommymac]

26. Very welcome!

[SheltieLover]

30. Love the above post-it idea!

[Tommymac]

33. Yes. Me too. We have a ton of those pads lying around...

On my days off later this week (I work weekends) I plan on hunting down some good maxims/sayings/memes and creating a ton to keep in the car and in my pack when walking.

The Keystone State is a target rich environment this fall - gonna have some fun.

[SheltieLover]

38. I have a bunch, too & plan on doing the same thing!

Then just drive around, run into busy places (Wal Mart, bowling alleys, etc.) & stick them on the back of the door so those using the facilities can easily see them.

Maybe put ActBlue website on them?

[CaptainTruth]

15. Also, volunteer to put out signs for your candidates!

I've been putting up signs for my preferred candidates alll over the area. I donated what I could & let them know I'd be happy to put out signs & they were thrilled to have the help, I got 20-30 signed dropped off, no charge. Now they're in prominent spots (with a bunch of other candidate's signs) all around the area.

[dlk]

16. Polls can say anything

It all depends on the statistical significance of the sample; better to take them with a grain of salt.

[SheltieLover]

19. Kicking for visibility

[Buckeyeblue]

20. I don't think people realized what would happen when Roe was overturned

We knew, of course. But people on here don't represent the average person. We watch and read the news and think critically about what is going on. We've known for years that overturning Roe would cause some states to initiate complete bans. Most people didn't understand or pay attention to this threat.

I also think many on the anti-choice side were very naive about what the response would be to the curtailing of reproductive rights.

The Kansas model shocked the anti-choice crowd. They have been lying to themselves about being in the majority for years. The currently dead Rush Limbaugh used to push this idea. I would say that I wish he was around to see this but I prefer him dead. Just saying...

But they are about to learn that they are very much the minority. It'll be interesting to see how the narrative changes after the midterms.

[Justice matters.]

32. Also, the young generation's women never had to fight for their rights.

They had it already and never thought about the risks of losing it, so the "ear-to-mouth" disdain about everything "politics" (they're all the same, so why would we have to bother registering and vote?) made them, perhaps millions of them, ridicule voting among themselves.

Not anymore!

The pigs on the supremely corrupt court didn't see that one coming!!

[Buckeyeblue]

46. I think you're right

The five justices that overturned Roe are so deeply in bedded in extreme conservatism that they are out of touch with mainstream America. Look at Alito's opinion. It's an intellectual mess. And yet he is supposed to be a top legal mind.

I think Roberts understood that they were going to far. But the 3 Trump appointees, along with Alito and Thomas, carried out this opinion like it was a mob hit. They were following orders. And it wasn't their place to consider consequences. And I don't mean political consequences. I mean consequences to women. That opinion demonstrated that they don't give a fuck about the real world consequences of women being harmed by their decision.

[Justice matters.]

48. 100%

Let's. Make. Them. Pay.

Register the million teens & young adult women and guide them to the voting booths!

[Rebl2]

62. Yes

I think of women who are in their early forty’s and younger. They never had to fight for their right to an abortion. I am sure in more recent years they have have seen that this right may go away, but thought no they wouldn’t dare. We’ve known it particularly in red states over the last ten or more years. What you will rarely hear are republican voters speaking out in favor of abortion rights even though they favor them. They keep it to themselves.

[Johnny2X2X]

23. The polls had it even

Last edited Mon Aug 22, 2022, 08:56 AM - Edit history (1)

It was a pick ‘em race. Maybe even anti choice by a couple points. Pro choice won by 18.

Abortion access is in the ballot in all 50 states. Vote blue to keep your rights.

[calimary]

24. Just finished a hundred "don't forget to vote!" postcards for Arizona

They’re supposed to go out in early October.

Got another 100 to go - for local Congressional candidate Jamie McLeod-Skinner (for whom we canvassed just yesterday)!

One of the women in our group says she’s done about 3,000 postcards singlehandedly!

We’re fired up, by Jove!

[onecaliberal]

25. That is fantastic! Thank you.

[Sky Jewels]

56. I'm working on 100 postcards to Nevada voters

through the Progressive Turnout Project. I received 200 and farmed out 20 each to five friends, leaving me with the 100. I hope to finish my pile soon so I can get another batch going.

[calimary]

66. Hmm... I think that's where one of our group leaders gets her loads of cards.

She's really on top of it - and Thank God! We couldn't have a better or more conscientious person on that part of it. I kinda "lead" the writers' group. The Writers' group! Holy Cannoli Stromboli!!!

I think I may have posted about them before. They're older women, who have life-stories, family-building experience, work/job/business experience, mostly retired, grandmother-age, and a point of view. And the proverbial itch or two that they've wanted to scratch. Most of them have never done anything like this before. Some just got self-activated by trump. But you'd never know it. With some of 'em, you'd swear they'd been front-row activists since Nixon! I've never been in a group of non-pros like these - and I've been in activism in one way or other since - well, yeah, Nixon. It's hard to express how impressed I am with each of 'em and what they're motivated to do!

And the writing - well, first, it just keeps getting better and more creative. So's the research that they do, to back up everything they've written. And the point-of-view choices - they're REALLY firing on all cylinders! We just had TWO different asks that focused on the importance of voting. From two COMPLETELY different angles and viewpoints. But it seemed to me that, now that summer's winding down and campaign activities are ramping up, voting becomes IT. All there is. The be-all and end-all, and alpha and omega. And two women in the group each came up with their own take on making the point. Just a joy to read! I usually help with the editing or polishing, but I Could. Not. Touch. Either of These! They were just too good!

And yeah, every one of them is writing a stack of postcards.

And we know we're not gonna change the world tomorrow.

But we can still be a trim-tab that eventually steers the boat more toward the direction we want it to go!

[Sky Jewels]

68. That's fabulous!

When you consider a small action one person takes, it seems insignificant. But each each postcard, each $15 donation, each conversation with a potential voter, each door knock, each phone call, etc., is like a raindrop in a storm that produces a flood that can sweep out the corrupt and entrenched GOP.

[calimary]

69. Yep! EVERY little bit!

The old saying about “the straw that breaks the camel’s back” comes to mind.

[enigmania]

27. stand up

[link:

|

[Trailrider1951]

41. Thank you! And welcome to DU!

[GreenWave]

28. And just absolutely annihiliate the deniers of women's rights to self determine.

[Samrob]

29. And please, for democracy's sake, let them know there is much more than CHOICE at stake. nt

[Warpy]

37. Well, not only that, but pollers rely on teltphones

and no woman is going to tell the truth when her right wing blowhard of a husband is within hearing distance.

Polling companies are working in the dark right now. Lying keeps a lot of us safe.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

39. Where did you get the news about voter registration?

Voter registration is exploding with women. Do not allow the fascist loving media to distract.

[Justice matters.]

63. 70% of Kansans who registered to vote after 6/24 (Dobbs decision) were women.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100216998624

They preferred the GOP candidate by 1 point in May and now go for the Democrat by 6.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217032834

[Joinfortmill]

40. 👍

[Quixote1818]

51. Did that translate to other races or just Kansas and where abortion was on the ballot?

Also, did Dems win other races in Kansas that day?

[Wednesdays]

54. It was a primary in Kansas that day

So, very few, if any, races were decided Dems versus Repugs.

[chuluma]

61. How many polls were conducted there?

And how many were Republican owned outfits.

[Mr.Bill]

64. Never forget that the news media has

a huge interest in making us think every race is very close. Otherwise, why would we watch election coverage leading up to the election. There were actually serious discussions on MSNBC wondering if Liz Cheney could pull off an upset.

[CousinIT]

65. Family are all repigs. Except a couple cousins.

I'm not encouraging the repigs to vote.

[Demovictory9]

67. K&R

[Slammer]

70. Single state polling

Single state polling is notoriously bad. And is much worse than that in off-year elections.

There's typically very few polls and they don't happen frequently.

You're much more likely to see outlier results published (because there's nothing to compare them with to be able to see that one particular poll is an aberration so bad poll results see the light of day rather than being buried by the pollster).

And the polls rarely detect trends as they break. So you're often seeing a poll being quoted in the media that's a snapshot of how things looked a few months ago rather than seeing what's happening now.