Nevada Senate polls (Friday)

[Polybius]

Trafalgar Group (A- on FiveThirtyEight):

Laxalt 47, Cortez Masto 44

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/TRF-NV-General-0819-Poll-Report.pdf

Any other recent polling? I feel it could be an outlier.

[calguy]

1. I haven't been watching Nevada polling, but....

I do know that Trafalgar is about as right wing as it gets when it comes to polling.
538 has her up by 1.4%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/nevada/

[Demsrule86]

2. Thanks and in my opinion given 538 uses historical data which won't reflect Roe, she is likely ahead

quite a bit more. Not much recent polling.

[onenote]

6. The data relied on by 538, which shows Masto leading

includes several polls taken after Roe was struck down. And they show Masto leading.

[Demsrule86]

8. I know...but I do not believe the way polls are done within the parameters used by 538 will reflect

the true post-Roe numbers any more than polls in Kansas captured the true picture of the Roe vote in Kansas. And I have looked for polls...not many good ones for Nevada. 538 can only use what polls are available.

[Polybius]

3. Gotcha, I was worried they would be like Fox

Fox is right-wing, but their polling is honest for some reason.

[onenote]

4. 538 has Masto up 44.5 - 43.1 as of August 19

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/nevada/

[W_HAMILTON]

5. FYI, Trafalgar makes Rasmussen look liberal.

Just saying.

If Trafalgar is showing the Republican with only a three-point lead, that's probably a good sign for the Democrat's chances.

[former9thward]

9. If they are a bad poll why do they have a A- rating?

[Kaleva]

10. Don't know but they predicted TFG would easily win in 2020

[Demsrule86]

13. This is a B+ Poll

And has a much different result. Robert Cahaly is without a doubt a rightie and I absolutely don't trust his polls.

[rockfordfile]

17. Well who gave them that rating? 538?

538? That's the same pos 538 that had GSW losing the NBA playoffs?

[former9thward]

18. Interesting.

When a poll has results which are favorable to a poster's desires its rating is always touted. And no one complains. But if not then its rating is attacked as meaningless or worse.

[Music Man]

19. Your point is well-taken, though I wouldn't dismiss it outright.

Trafalgar raised some eyebrows when it correctly predicted Trump would win in 2016. It then whiffed on several races since then, including the 2020 presidential race.

This is the first poll in a while in which I've not seen Cortez Masto ahead, so maybe it's an outlier, but I would take everything seriously.

[Music Man]

19. Your point is well-taken, though I wouldn't dismiss it outright.

Trafalgar raised some eyebrows when it correctly predicted Trump would win in 2016. It then whiffed on several races since then, including the 2020 presidential race.

This is the first poll in a while in which I've not seen Cortez Masto ahead, so maybe it's an outlier, but I would take everything seriously.

[ConstanceCee]

7. Postcards

I'm writing postcards for Cortez Masto right now!

[Mad_Machine76]

11. Any particular reason

This is a close race for Cortez-Masto?

[kimbutgar]

12. I have a friend who lives in Nevada and is active politically

She sounded confident yesterday when I talked with her that Masto will hold the seat.

[peggysue2]

14. The Suffolk poll had Cortez Masto up 6 pts

during almost the same time frame and if you follow the tracking here:

https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/nevada

you'll see the only other poll with Laxalt ahead was the McLaughlin poll back in April.

This is going to be tight, as was Cortez Masto's last race. So it's definitely one to keep an eye on.

We need to hold on to Nevada.

Beat 'em there, beat 'em everywhere.

[herding cats]

15. Another poll has Masto 46 - Lexalt 38

New Suffolk Univ./Reno Gazette-Journal poll of NEVADA:

NV-Sen
Cortez Masto (D-inc) 45
Laxalt (R) 38
Scott (L) 2
“None of these candidates” 3

NV-Gov
Sisolak (D-inc) 43
Lombardo (R) 40
Bridges (IAP) 3
Davis (L) 2
“None of these” 2

Link to tweet

https://t.co/Vpu7ifBmS5

[Quixote1818]

16. Laxalt is a big name in Nevada. Him being up doesn't surprise me. nt