Beto O'Rourke's risky quest for votes in deep-red Texas

[LetMyPeopleVote]

I attended a couple of Beto rallies in 2017 and tended to stay away from the larger rallies in 2018. Beto has become more aggressive compared to 2018. In 2018, Beto did not really attack Carnival Cruz and that has changed. In 2018, the state party had counted on one of the Castro brothers running for governor and the Castro brothers pissed off a ton of democrats by not running. The ticked in 2018 was weak at the top of the ticket with Lupe being a very reluctant candidate.

Texas is not a red state or a blue state but a non-voting state. Democrats do well in urban and now suburban counties. If Bet can just pick up some votes in the rural parts of Texas, Beto can win. The demographics of Texas has been changing to favor Democrats and this could be the year when Texas turn blue in part due to the weakness of the GOP ticket.

Link to tweet

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2022/08/20/beto-orourke-rural-texas-governor-race/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=wp_main

In these rural areas, Beto is essentially drilling for oil. “There are a lot of votes out there,” Beto says. “There are 7 million people who didn’t cast a ballot who were eligible in 2020.” There are the first-time voters and the Democrats who need an extra push to vote in the midterms and the people who don’t stick to party lines. “I would say they are persuadable,” he says.

And then there are the votes no political scientist could tell him how to find. In Dumas, a Panhandle city that’s 55 percent Hispanic, truck driver Pablo Campos tells Beto he woke up at 3:30 a.m. so he could complete half his work shift and have enough time to go to the town hall gathering during his break. There, Mary Jane Garcia, 47, a devout Catholic, stood up to talk about the “spontaneous abortion” that saved her life when she miscarried at 17, and how scared she is that her daughters might be denied that medical care.....

That frenzied scene eclipses anything from his Senate run, says Glenn Melancon, Democratic chair of Grayson County, who introduced Beto in Whitesboro. He was a sensation in 2018, but he was new and unproven — a relative nobody around the state, even as El Paso’s three-term congressman. Now people across Texas feel as if they have a relationship with him. “The first time around, there’s some excitement,” Melancon says, “but then he came back and he came back, and more and more people get to know it’s not a show. It’s real.”......

This is pretty much how they did it in 2018. Only this time, Beto says, they’re more organized. They’ve invested in data to better target voters. Over the past five years they’ve built an army of 80,000 volunteers who knocked on 100,000 doors in June.

He’s also gotten more aggressive. In the Senate race, Beto says, “I wish I’d done more to prosecute the case against Ted Cruz and help people realize how dangerous it was for him to stay in office.” Now, everything he says, he links back to Abbott. “People need to know why their electricity bills are going up, why their property taxes are going up, why the lights didn’t turn on last February,” he says. “It’s Greg Abbott, and just be really clear about that.”

Texas will turn blue. According to some of the demographic trends, Texas should be blue by 2024 Beto may speed up thje process.

[mopinko]

1. kicking ass and taking names.

never been to tx, but have people there. beto is the texas they talk about.

[Demsrule86]

2. My heart be still...a win in Texas! I love Beto. Thanks for this.

[NQAS]

3. Every article in the msm does the same thing

Every article and every headline highlights the riskiness of some strategy, this calling into question the success of the strategy.

You know, just changing a few words here and there would shift the tenor of the article. So instead of, hey, the Washington post doesn’t think Beto has a chance, turns into, hey, the washing post is impressed with Beto’s daring strategy. This also applies to reporting by the NYT as well on just about any dem candidate.

[reACTIONary]

24. The article isn't that bad...

.... If you can't access it, here is a paywall free link.

https://wapo.st/3PFDklm

[brooklynite]

27. Perhaps they're not that impressed with his strategy...

… e quad there’s no hard data the shakes it’s working. Every poll in the r past three months has been Abbott+5 to Abbott +10. Paxton seems vulnerable but Abbott doesn’t at this point.

[peggysue2]

4. Not sure why WAPO chose the word 'risky' for their headline

Reading the article, I immediately thought of John Fetterman's 'every county, every vote' strategy which was much like O'Rourke's strategy against Cruz in 2018. Fetterman has a better playing field than Beto; Pennsylvania is a purple state and the seat is open. Beto is attempting to bring down an incumbent and his 'go everywhere, talk to everyone approach' came very close to bringing Cruz down.

I give O'Rourke a lot of credit for putting himself out there again and working every small town he can. Maybe the 'risky' part comes from the armed morons trying to intimidate the man at these meet and greets. Whatever the case, I believe both Fetterman and O'Rourke are on the right approach--take your message to the people, have conversations, look individual voters in the eye and be honest about where you stand on the issues and why.

I've been donating to Fetterman's cause bc I live in PA. But I need to throw some love in Beto's direction, too. Good men, both of them.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

21. There are some GOP nutcases out there

I fear for Beto in some of these smaller towns.

[peggysue2]

26. Yeah, you definitely have to give the man credit

He's putting himself out there, life, limb and soul, to get his message out.

He deserves a

[Tommymac]

29. They are both going to be Game Changers when they take their seats in DC.

And yes, both Beto and Fetterman ARE GOING TO WIN this November. Mark my words.

[peggysue2]

31. Make it so, Tommymac

And I'll be doing a happy dance for the rest of the year!

[hatrack]

35. "Beto In Disarray!!"

As if running for governor as a Democrat in Texas didn't have, y'know, certain risks associated with it.

[SoCalDavidS]

5. I Disagree With The Premise That TX Is Not A Red State

Look at how they've voted for the past 3 Decades. They are ABSOLUTELY a Red State.

And so is FL, and now apparently, OH.

The only way the repubs can balance the fact that states like CA & NY are Blue, are with states like TX & FL, and now OH. This is why they will do EVERYTHING, including cheating (2000), to make sure that holds true.

Barack got FL to vote Democratic, but that was partially fatigue from "W," and the fact President Obama was a generational kind of candidate.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

20. I have been volunteering on voter protection efforts for a very long time

Texas is one of the most difficult states to vote in vote in and the latest voter suppression law is going to make it even more difficult to vote. The Texas GOP know that they can only win by gerrymandering and voter suppression.

Link to tweet

[SoCalDavidS]

28. I Take The Idea That TX Will Go Blue, The Same Way I Take The Idea That TFG Will Be Held Accountable

I'LL BELIEVE IT WHEN I SEE IT.

I've been hearing how THIS TIME will be different, for far too long, and yet the state votes Red by a comfortable margin EVERY SINGLE ELECTION.

The repubs cannot afford to lose the state, and as mentioned, will do whatever they have to, so that grip is maintained for many years to come.

[Joinfortmill]

6. He seems fearless. I hope he has protection.

[vlyons]

7. Bread and butter issues are where it's at

Price of groceries and gas, good jobs, affordable healthcare, free/cheap community college, affordable and available electric, Subsidies for solar and efficient appliances.

Abortion rights are important, just not so much in red rural Baptist counties.

[Hekate]

11. Counterintuitively for some, abortion rights are important everywhere there are women...

In the past, when states in the Deep South put harsh anti-abortion measures on the ballot, it was the voters who said no way. That is very likely because you stand there in the voting booth alone, without your pastor or neighbors looking over your shoulder, and you think about how people, including yourself, really live their lives.

It’s when the Legislature gets its hooks into the issue that you end up with this crap, because politicians who ran on being “pro life” can follow through. Also, the ideologues are cold-hearted creatures who are protected from the consequences of their own decisions.

The SCOTUS decision was a slap of cold reality to every woman in the country, no matter where she lives. But women are often married, and the men who love them don’t expect a baby a year any more — and there’s your bread and butter, economic, pocketbook issues. They also don’t expect the mother of their children to die in childbirth or complications of pregnancy gone wrong.

[vlyons]

14. I would be happy to be wrong on this point

Very true that we are supposed to vote on a SECRET ballot. Most of the women wanting an abortion are already mothers and don't want/can't afford another baby.

[Hekate]

15. Fingers crossed here as well. There's been a wave of women registering to vote, in the wake of Dobbs

I think voter reg drives and GOTV drives should emphasize women of all ages. Not just women, of course, but I’m sure you know what I mean.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

16. Exactly! Battle cry of this election: Roe your vote!

Roe, Roe, Roe your vote
against theocracy!
Republicans revoke your rights
and kill democracy!

The radicalized Republican party somehow thinks that women want to be property and want to be government-owned incubators. Kansas shocked them, but not enough.

[Tommymac]

30. Coming Soon to a State Near You

#GOTV2022
#VOTEBLUE2022
#VOTEBLUEPA

[LetMyPeopleVote]

22. Abortion is becoming a more important issue for Latinos

Link to tweet

[flying_wahini]

8. As a lifelong Texan I have seen BETO many times over the years.

The speeches he gives are tuned down from years ago but still very passionate and can stir old time Republicans to come around. (You have to remember that he was running against Ted Cruz last time, too. Beto won the Ft Worth vote by a hair.

I think that part of the difference this time is boiled down to 3 things.

Teachers - the lack of pay and respect given
Uvalde(gun control)
Hispanic voters in Texas and the immigration issues.

He drives home his policies on these 3 things when he speaks publicly.
He is a very inspirational speaker too. So that helps.

I think he is gonna win.

[Sky Jewels]

13. Also abortion rights.

That is a huge, huge topic EVERYWHERE.

[Cha]

9. Very Best of Good Luck to Beto

in Deep Red Texas!

DeProgram them, Beto!

[Dopers_Greed]

10. I hope he wins

But I'm questioning the strategy.

He spent a lot of time in red areas in 2018, but that statistically had zero impact. They voted just as Republican as ever. Most of Dems gains that year were from firing up Gen Y and Z non-voters in urban areas.

[Hekate]

12. 2018 was before SCOTUS overthrow of Roe. See my post #11 regarding the impact.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

33. This makes me smile

Link to tweet

[ananda]

17. Not risky at all. Just plain smart!

!!!

[JanMichael]

18. I hope that the horse votes!

[MagickMuffin]

19. I've been watching Beto Townhall meetings on the YouTube, very impressive crowds

He is campaigning for this Great State of Texas.

Beto received an invitation for a small group of African-Americans in Dallas. It was held in a small diner(?) the gentleman who introduced Beto mentioned how he contacted Beto to come and speak to the small group and he said Beto responded within minutes and agreed to attend. It's on YouTube.

Plus Beto is posting videos of republicans who said that they are voting for Beto.

The hecklers don't stand a chance against Beto, as Beto is quick on his feet and quick with a real zinger!


And to those who think it is "risky" all the counties in Texas have Texan voters in them and regardless of how they currently vote, Beto is campaigning for their votes. Greg Abbott doesn't believe he has to campaign for any votes. Abbott believes those votes belong to him therefore he doesn't have to campaign. Beto is sure to mention this at every townhall.

[OMGWTF]

23. Texas is a lot of electoral votes. It going Blue would be stellar!

[hamsterjill]

25. I will be dancing in the street naked if Beto wins!

But as a sixth generation Texan, I just don’t see it happening. Like before, I think he will come close and the enthusiasm will be there until the very last second, but ultimately, the same dumbass, redneck rural voters - and yes, that includes many Latinos - will vote for Abbott.

They’re all afraid he will take their guns even though that’s not what he’s saying, they don’t like that he’s pro choice, but many of them don’t think for themselves and will do exactly what their rich bosses tell them to do in the many memos that will go out about how much better Abbott will be for business and keeping jobs. “Do you want Texas to become another California?” There is also the border issue which Beto needs to confront head on and very publicly.

I will vote for Beto the first day of early voting and will be taking anyone with me that I can think of who will vote for him, as well.

Please, please, please, let me be wrong about the outcome!!!

[LetMyPeopleVote]

32. Where is Greg?

Link to tweet

[Deminpenn]

34. There are votes to be had in "red" areas

There are plenty of discouraged Dems who feel "why bother" because they think their vote doesn't matter. Maybe in local elections it doesn't, but in statewide elections, it's dumb for Dems to ignore those voters.

In 2016, Hillary concentrated her campaign in the big Dem vote rich areas. Had she done some small group campaign events in the reliably R counties, I think she'd have won over enough voters to have won the state.