We are back to Obama's base isn't as motivated

[wilt the stilt]

even though all the polls are likely voters we are hearing it again. Likely voters means they are voting MSM

[flamingdem]

1. Even thought people are waiting in line for 6 hours in some places to vote!

That's such a lie and yes heard it plenty on cable tv today

[GoCubsGo]

9. No shit.

I just came here from a thread that was showing the biggest crowd on record in New Hampshire. There were there to see the President and Bill Clinton. The GD is replete with other such threads from Obama rallies across the country. "Lack of Democratic enthusiasm", my fat ass.

[savalez]

2. Even though we are Fired Up and moving Forward. n/t

[nobodyspecial]

3. Yes, ignore the huge crowds at rallies

and huge lines for early voting. I'm sure all of those minority group members are lining up early and waiting hours to vote for Romney.

[forthemiddle]

13. The crowd sizes (especially the one in NH today) are phenominal

But I am less enthusiastic with the early voting counts.
By all accounts the Dems are not performing with as big as margins as they did in 2008. What I mean is that they are winning, but the Republicans have narrowed that gap.
I also fear that the early voters are the voters that would NEVER miss an election to begin with. In other words, they may have voted early, but there is no way in Hell they would have missed this election even if they would have had to wait until Tuesday.
I live in Wisconsin, and for two weeks before recall election day the news reports were all about the huge increase in early voting. Everyone here, and in the media assumed that was good news for the Democrats, yet election day came, and Walker still won by more than 5%. It turned out that early voters were just that, early voters, and not extra voters.

[Robyn66]

15. Thats not what I heard on Meet the Press today

They were saying Joe Biden had 900 people tops and our people are incredibly unmotivated and btw Romney has a SUPERIOR ground game and polls show people trust him more with the economy!!! GOD I CANT WAIT FOR THIS TO BE OVER!!!!

[msrizzo]

4. It's patently false and they know it....

That they keep repeating it worries me though because it tells me they won't investigate election fraud or voter suppression even if it happens in front of their noses.

[CakeGrrl]

5. They have to lie so the RWers will go to the polls Tuesday. -nt

[krawhitham]

6. The base stayed home in 2010 so no one is sure if the LV criteria is right or not this time

[wilt the stilt]

8. polls were right in 2010

polling is very sophisticated name the last time everyone was wrong.

[krawhitham]

10. The polls off by 8.3 for Harry Reid in 2010

[wilt the stilt]

11. you are wrong

PPP- +1
Rasmussen-+3
Mason Dixon- +4

Rasmussen and Mason Dixon are terrible.
PPP is within the margin of error.

check it out.

[krawhitham]

14. No I'm not

1st PPP leans 3 points Dem http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/

2nd PPP had Angle by 1 but Reid won by 5.6, so they we off by 6.6 points, If you want to go down the MoE road, Obama could be currently losing all swings states as they are all within the MoE

3nd in the last 8 polls for NV Reid was behind in them all for an average of 2.75

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/nv/nevada_senate_angle_vs_reid-1517.html

PPP (D) - Angle +1
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen - Angle +3
LVRJ/Mason-Dixon - Angle +4
Rasmussen Reports - Angle +4
CNN/Time - Angle +4
Rasmussen Reports - Angle +3
LVRJ/Mason-Dixon - Angle +2
Rasmussen Reports - Angle +1

4th Rasmussen has less bias than PPP 3.1 D VS 1.3 R http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/


Reid won by +5.6

The averaged last 8 polls were off by 8.35

[wilt the stilt]

16. and they were finished by 10/31

and the election was 5 days later and real clear is an average and not a weighted average.

[WinkyDink]

7. Every LIE now (motivation, voter fraud, Romney EV lead) is to underpin the coming accusations of

"STOLEN!!"

[LisaL]

12. People are standing in line for hours just to vote.

That doesn't sound unmotivated to me.