TS Ian, folks really need to be paying attention
especially along the west coast of FL. I am not normally an alarmist when it comes to these storms but this one really has my, and many other weather nerds, ears perked. There have been many comparisons to Hurricane Charley because of the the current forecast path. That is understandable but also foolish. Don't count on a hard right like Charley.
Hopefully the intensity models forecasters use are smoking crack but they have been very consistent the last 48 hours spitting out intensity numbers I've rarely seen in my 30 years of nerd tracking for a storm just formed in the last 24 hours.
The Tampa Bay area needs to be on extra high alert over the next 48 hours. Pinellas county has one of the highest number of trailers per square mile in the entire country, self explanitory. Plus, if it comes quick, there's no way off of that peninsula in time. I lived there for 12 years, still have friends and family there, and if I still lived there my ass would be gone by tomorrow night if trends continue. The potential for a storm like Michael plowing right into the bay area from the SSW is definitely on the table. If you live in the area have a plan in place now not to stay but to leave as early as possible. If it gets within 36 hours of a big one youre not going to be able to leave Pinellas county.
The Tampa Bay area has been at the top of list of vulnerability to a major hurricane for decades. John Hope (whose daughter Hurricane Camille was named after when he was at the NHC) used to say a strengthening major Cat 4 or 5 coming from the SSW into central Pinellas county could lead to the largest loss of life from a hurricane since the great Galveston storm, and he was a very smart man.
Once again I'm not trying to be an alarmist but please pay very close attention to this coming storm. The water, atmosphere and geography are almost perfectly aligned for this one. Be smart Be safe 
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And that's my point. Nobody is paying attention to this because of Fiona. Fiona was and still is a formidable storm currently playing havoc around Nova Scotia with 100 mph winds and 90 foot seas. Ian just formed as a depression then a named storm yesterday. I will post the current NHC chart. But thats what I'm afraid of, people don't even know this thing is coming and the forecasters are very concerned as this could as strong or stronger than Fiona but in the Gulf of Mexico.
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And then there are SOME of us ALSO paying attention to TS Gaston and TS Hermine. 
It's soothing as he describes all the dynamics of these systems. 
Link to tweet
@NHC_Atlantic
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Here are the 5 am EDT Saturday Key Messages for Tropical Storm #Ian. Get the latest storm information at http://hurricanes.gov
Key Messages: 1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall and instances of flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. 2. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Jamaica on Sunday. 3. Early next week, Ian is forecast to move near or over western Cuba as a strengthening hurricane and then approach the Florida peninsula at or near major hurricane strength, with the potential for significant impacts from storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall. While it is too soon to determine the exact magnitude and location of these impacts, residents in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and closely monitor forecast updates through the weekend.
5:10 AM · Sep 24, 2022
I'm watching Ian closely as we seem to have issues with "I" storms here in the Philly area (Irene, Isabel, Irma (remnants), Isaias, Ida).
But you are right, many up on the mainland get complacent. I have a grandson in college in Fort Meyers, a step sister in St. Pete, a daughter in Clearwater, a best friend in the panhandle. We will be forming plans with them all sometime later today. I’m still in Indiana on the family farm until October and we are equipped for evacuees, as we’ve done before, last time being Irma. That bitch took my house in Key Largo. So as I said, we pay attention. 
I had to drive down to Grand Isle LA during Ida last year to get my uncle out because he wouldn't leave. Got him out only a few hours before landfall. That was a harrowing experience. He lost everything but at least he lived, stubborn old man. Unfortunately we (He) relocated him up around Cedar Key about half a mile from the ocean so he can take his boat out and fish. I may be driving down there again in a few days if it heads his way and my mother can't get him to leave. And I will bring a straitjacket this time! 
That storm just off the coast of Africa snuck in ahead of Ian.
Ian is supposed to go west of me but the dirty side is going to travel right across Miami-Dade.
I'll be precharging my generator today.
What's going to be bad is the aftermath.
Many here are without hurricane insurance.
It's going to be a tough couple of days.
