A Study Finally Shows Just How Much Deadlier COVID Has Been for Republicans

[marmar]

This essay was adapted from Donald Moynihan’s newsletter, Can We Still Govern?


For at least a year now, there has been strong but largely circumstantial evidence that right-wing anti-vaccine rhetoric was having deadly consequences in the United States.

Despite early wide-scale access to COVID-19 vaccines, the U.S. has outstripped its peer countries when it comes to the all-important measure of mortality known as “excess deaths.” Meanwhile, U.S. life expectancy has continued to drop dramatically due to the coronavirus even as longevity measures have begun rebounding elsewhere.

One seemingly obvious explanation for this grim piece of American exceptionalism is that Republicans, egged on by right-wing political and media elites, have been avoiding simple public health measures to protect themselves like getting vaccinated, and dying at elevated rates as a result.

This problem wasn’t exactly hard to pick up on just by paying attention to social media or reading the news. But the story appeared to be borne out by more careful data analyses, too. Some of the key clues:

• When it comes to the public’s beliefs about the pandemic, such as whether there should be more or fewer COVID restrictions, the gap between left- and right-leaning voters has been much higher in the U.S. than elsewhere.

• COVID cases and deaths are higher in more Republican counties.

• Republicans are more likely to believe misinformation about vaccines.

• Republicans are substantially less likely to get vaccinated.

• Researchers have found that exposure to conservative media, particularly Fox News, made people more vaccine hesitant.

This body of evidence had some limitations, though. For instance, the fact that red counties tended to have higher death rates than blue ones might not mean that conservatives were more likely to die from COVID if lots of Democrats who happened to live in right-wing parts of the country were perishing too. Or, if more Republicans were dying, it might also be because they were different from Democrats in ways that affect COVID outcomes but were not directly driven by ideology. They might just be older, in worse health, or in a community with poorer health resources, for example. ...........(more)

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/10/covid-deadlier-republicans-study.html

[Fullduplexxx]

1. Oh hey that's too bad womp womp thoughts n prayers

Actions meet consequences and so what

[Ray Bruns]

9. I know. The article reads like this is a bad thing.

[COL Mustard]

18. Every now and then you have to clean out the septic tank

Gotta cleanse the gene pool too. Mother Nature started it and The Fat Goon spread it.

[William769]

37. There may be more of them dying but at the ballot box

They double vote & triple vote plus will stuff a ballot box. counting deaths compared to voting this year will be hard to do.

[Kaleva]

2. In Michigan, about 52% of COVID-19 deaths were in counties Biden won

As 75% of the vote TFG got in MI in 2020 came from counties classified as urban or mostly urban, it's possible a high percentage of the COVID-19 deaths in counties Biden won were TFG voters.

[SergeStorms]

3. Republicans tend to live in more rural areas...

where the population is more widely dispersed.

Democrats are more likely to inhabit urban areas where the population is far more dense.

While I'm certain there were more proportionally more republican deaths from COVID, the fact that Democrats are more likely to come in contact with the virus in urban areas would tend to skew any results measured by political metrics.

My opinion only, but it would seem to be exceedingly difficult to measure the results. Wouldn't that stand to reason?

[Bernardo de La Paz]

15. Your thesis would skew it the other way, in which case the point is even stronger

It is debatable whether there was greater contact in urban than rural areas.
It is debatable whether greater contact had/has a significant effect on mortality.

Regardless, if there were greater contact and greater infection-generating contact in urban areas, that would elevate D deaths and depress R deaths, proportionately, going against the forcing trend of the vaccinations. Note that contact is only one factor; the most obvious factors being vaccination and susceptibility to disinformation. Thus it would have only some effect; not be the only effect.

All the same if that contact effect happened it would happen counter the trend the study found, so then the excessive deaths discovered would be even more strikingly due to RepubliCON disinformation, misinformation, and their generally less reasoned approach to life.

[Kaleva]

28. A slight majority of deaths in MI occured in counties Biden won

There has to date been a little over 40 deaths in my rural, TFG loving county while there has been over 8000 deaths in Wayne county (Detroit) which Biden won by a large margin.

[Elessar Zappa]

30. But I bet the large majority of that 8,000 are Trumpers.

[Kaleva]

33. Unless they put party affiliation on the death certificates, there's no way to know

There's also the fact that 30% of adults didn't vote.

[Botany]

4. Fine let 'em die

[COL Mustard]

19. I don't know if I would want to see the next frame

On that video or roll of film. But then again there's this guy:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2022/08/29/emotional-support-alligator-wally-henney/

[Hortensis]

5. "Overall, the excess death rate for Republicans was 5.4 percentage points, or 76 percent,

higher than the excess death rate for Democrats.”

Entirely believable, and I do believe results like this would be replicated and verified.

This is measured only in FL and OH, and I hope it's expanded. There is big political pressure against funding studies like this of course.

One thing I didn't notice mention is that at 20% FL is tied with ME for the highest population of over-65s. In addition to that number are the retired snowbirds who flood in every winter. Nationwide, over-65s are 16% of the population, and 75% of Covid ("excess" ) deaths were among that 16%. The "Republican" effect on death rates would still be real, but it could affect the actual numbers.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

27. Here is the key graph from the paper

[Hortensis]

32. The difference in that last graph is adjusted by age.

Of course we all know that those who refused vaccination, and also other protections, died at higher rates.

Republicans retirees in FL knew it too. Snowbirders who come south to the center and west coast from the inland/midwest states average conservative, and my husband and I were recalling how restaurants normally filled with crowds of winter visitors started emptying out at the end of February and into March, while tRump, Fox, etc, were still insisting it wasn't real, a Democratic hoax. The projected death rates for that age group were horrendous before vaccines, and the marked change in their behaviors revealed who they really believed, regardless of what they said.

[llashram]

6. tough sh** repthugs

your orange orangutan posing as a human has led you down a very dangerous path. Now either you jump off the cliff at the end of the path or turn around and get vaccinated. Either choice means fewer stupid ignorant dangerous virus spreaders to deal with on the right.

[PortTack]

7. Suppose they will figure it out that fux news is not the fux science channel?

[Sky Jewels]

8. I guess the best thing for Republicans to do now is to double down.

Come on, Rs, you can't let the snooty science-believing libtards win! Show them your courage and how you're fighting for freedom by not getting the China-Fauci-Soros-Gates jab! And be sure to deeply French kiss every unjabbed person you know to show your solidarity.

[Traildogbob]

10. Let's go Darwin.

[Initech]

24. Let's go Herman!

[IronLionZion]

11. It could have some electoral implications in swing districts and states

where every vote is important. There may be fewer GOP voters this November.

[OMGWTF]

16. Astrophysist Neil DeGrasse Tyson said it could be enough to swing elections to the Dems.

This was at least a year ago.

[Initech]

12. Republicans have become the "I won't do what you tell me" crowd.

[gopiscrap]

13. good let the fuckers die

less repuke votes the Democrats have to overcome

[Midnight Writer]

14. My district voted 75% for Trump, and last I saw we have a 40% vaccination rate.

I don't know if our death rate is higher, but I see why it could be.

Another factor may be the lack of healthcare facilities, or poorly staffed and equipped hospitals in rural areas. In the town I worked in, the nearest hospital is 30 miles away and the ambulance service is volunteer (which means if you are having a heart attack at night, someone needs to roust Frank and Duffy, who need to get out of bed, get dressed, go to the city garage and start up the ambulance, and then head out to your place, then drive 30 miles on country roads to get you to an emergency room).

[Sky Jewels]

34. And rural people tend to have high rates of

comorbidities like obesity, diabetes, etc.

[peppertree]

17. Most developed countries had a 10% jump (or less) in total mortality in 2020; we had a 19% jump.

That was Cheeto's doing - and his (maskless) mouth-breathers'.

[calimary]

20. And that old quote is relevant yet again... "is it wrong that I'm smiling?"

This was years ago, by some female Republican bureaucrat after either a bridge collapse or a major road closure that screwed up traffic in a blue area - like New York or Pennsylvania or other blue-state area. Can't remember the details and I did try to google it. Nothing comes up yet. But I do remember whoever she was, she was gleeful at how the public was being screwed over.

That said, I truly do feel sorry for anybody who's had to deal with COVID in its most extreme manifestation, regardless of party affiliation.

[JustAnotherGen]

35. NJ - Bridgegate

Bridget Forget Her Last Name.

[calimary]

38. Bridget Anne Kelly.

Thanks, JustAnotherGen! Looked her up.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bridget_Anne_Kelly

[Hermit-The-Prog]

21. The anti-maskers, anti-isolaters, anti-vacc'ers increased the mutations for the rest of us.

Those of us who followed recommendations, pre-vaccine, caught COVID at a higher rate than we should have, simply because of the RWNJ's failure to heed science. Post-vaccine, the difference between parties really showed up because the vaccines have been so effective, but RWNJ refused to get the jab.

Science -- it's like magic for the real world.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

22. These studies are very telling

Link to tweet

[rustbeltvoice]

23. sometimes the penalty for being stupid

is self imposed

[dembotoz]

25. so i go to this small business network breakfast and this older codger says he can travel again most

places without having his covid shots.....Mask restrictions on flights and such

people in the room cheered. This group skews maybe 90% gop,
Might be higher than that. At times i feel i am the only dem in the room.
I know some are openly and loudly anti vax.

This clown said he was in his mid 70s

He is quite proud of his covid stance.

These meeting should be super spreader events...with my luck i would get it and they won't.

[IronLionZion]

26. Plenty of MAGA freedom fighters on sorry antivaxxer site

https://www.sorryantivaxxer.com/

They did their own research and paid the ultimate price

[SammyWinstonJack]

29. Their choice.

[former9thward]

31. The study is in conflict with NIH studies.

Covid Death rates per 100,000 by race: (adjusted for age as of August 3, 2022)

White 269
Black 442
Hispanic 466
Asian 197

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/covid-19-cases-and-deaths-by-race-ethnicity-current-data-and-changes-over-time/

Death rates for the two groups most likely to support Democrats are substantially higher than whites.

[marmar]

39. How does that conflict with the overall finding?

[former9thward]

40. The rate of cases and deaths are much higher among those groups.

I think you know that.

From the CDC:

Risk for COVID-19 Infection, Hospitalization, and Death By Race/Ethnicity

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html

Unfortunately this paper is under a paywall so I can't see how they are determining who is a R or a D. It is a draft and not peer reviewed.

[marmar]

41. So what? That still wouldn't mean that overall the rate is higher among Republicans. .....

.... I think you know that.

[former9thward]

42. How does the paper in the OP determine who is a R and who is a D?

That info is not on death certificates. I think you know that.

[marmar]

43. .....

"Much prior work on this topic relied either on surveys of beliefs or evidence about vaccination rates and deaths at the county level. The new paper, in contrast, uses information from voter registration files in Florida and Ohio to connect individual-level data on the political affiliation and age of people who died during the coronavirus crisis. Using this information, it calculates and compares excess death rates of Republicans and Democrats in 2020 and 2021—meaning it looks at how many more people in each party died during the pandemic above what you would ordinarily expect based on their demographics and historical trends. Because they’re using a measure that takes the age of population into account, the researchers’ results shouldn’t be affected by the fact that Republicans tend to be a little older than Democrats."

Reading is fundamental.

[former9thward]

44. Maybe you should read what you post?

How did they determine who was a R and who was a D? In OH you do not declare party registration when you register. In FL until 2021 Democrats outnumbered Republicans. Yet R are winning state wide elections. So what does party registration mean in that case?

What you posted is a summary by a third party. Not the paper or what the authors say about their methodology.

You seem to want to ignore CDC data and instead rely on a paper which is not peer reviewed.

[wishstar]

36. State data is very clear that Dem Governor states NC and VA had much lower death rates

per population than neighboring Repub led states of SC and Tennessee and rest of South. The Democratic Governors of NC and VA took the pandemic seriously and swiftly put in place mask ordinances and Covid restrictions statewide that saved many lives compared to states like TN and SC. I recall how the mayor of Myrtle Beach SC had to fight hard to institute mask ordinance and other Covid measures because the Repub Governor tried to block the entire state of SC from putting any restriction in place.

[Blue Owl]

45. So, there are fewer Republican voters thanks to COVID?