Friday Talking Points -- Election Fears

[ChrisWeigant]

We have to admit, we're more than a little worried about the upcoming midterm elections. Not about who will win (that's a different subject), but about the elections themselves. Because for the first time in a very long period in American history, one of the major political parties is openly attacking the election system itself. This is a dry run for the 2024 presidential election, and at this point it is impossible to say that Election Day (and the counting of the votes thereafter) won't be marred by intimidation, internal sabotage, and/or outright political violence. And that's a pretty sad state of affairs for American democracy.

The signs are all there. Few are paying enough attention to them, but nobody will be able to express shock and surprise afterwards by saying: "Who could have seen something like this coming?" Because people already are.

The Washington Post ran an editorial this week which began:

This year's midterms are not shaping up to be normal elections. In an environment in which one party is gripped by skepticism and denialism about foundational democratic processes, new avenues are opening for voter intimidation and election interference -- a stress test that could be a small taste of what is ahead in the 2024 presidential election.

Early signs of danger are popping up across the map at multiple levels in the election system.

They then provided a list which included: "undermining local election officials," "conspiracy-minded partisans watching -- and staffing -- the polls," and "threats against voters."

In some places, proactive steps are being taken to introduce as much confusion and doubt into the system as is possible. Nye County, Nevada decided to ban the use of machines to count votes and instead has instituted a hand-count policy. Let's check in and see how that's going, as they begin to count the absentee ballots already sent in:

After a full day in the Nye County office building in Pahrump, 60 miles (96 kilometers) west of Las Vegas, some 60 volunteers had counted about 900 of the 1,950 mail-in ballots that the county has received so far.

It took 60 people an entire day to count 900 ballots. That is 15 ballots per person for an entire day. Here are some further details on how it went:

Two groups of five that The Associated Press observed Wednesday spent about three hours each counting 50 ballots. Mismatched tallies led to recounts, and occasionally more recounts. Several noted how arduous the process was, with one volunteer lamenting: "I can't believe it's two hours to get through 25" ballots.

. . .

One group observed by AP found during their first 30 minutes that they had mismatched numbers for eight candidates. A recount took nearly 40 minutes, and two of the recounts still had different outcomes.

"That's going to be my new name. Mismatch," said one of the talliers.

They took two hours to accurately count only 25 ballots. They counted for 30 minutes, got a total, and it was wrong for eight voters. They recounted for 40 minutes, and they still got "different outcomes."

What could possibly go wrong, when they gather to count the Election Day votes? Nye County is now the most-populated county in the continental U.S. to use hand-counting. In Nevada, a different tiny county (Esmeralda) hand-counted votes and it took them seven hours to count 317 ballots.

But Nevada Republicans want to institute this system for the whole state, including the heavily-populated Clark County, where Las Vegas is. Which would mean they'd get done counting maybe sometime around Valentine's Day.

This is systematic sabotage of the previously-working-just-fine election system from within. And it's not the only type of sabotage either. Republicans try to sneakily access voting machines, intimidate voters at the polls, and openly advocate violence even after the election. Here's what Steve Bannon had to say about what a newly-elected Republican House majority would do: "[W]e're going to do it by bayonet... that's going to be reality."

The White House has reportedly issued a national security warning about threats to the upcoming election -- both foreign and domestic.

We are entering uncharted waters.

This week, three people were convicted in Michigan of aiding the plot by a right-wing conspiracy to kidnap the state's Democratic governor. And just today we got the news that a nutjob wielding a hammer broke into Nancy Pelosi's California home and beat Pelosi's husband so badly with it that he's undergoing brain surgery. The attacker reportedly demanded: "Where is Nancy?" which should sound familiar since we heard that on January 6th, 2021 -- from the mob who stormed the United States Capitol in a failed insurrection attempt.

The Pelosi home invasion at least caused the Republican leaders in Congress to finally condemn violence against their political opponents, but they didn't say a word about how their entire party has been nodding and winking at calls for political violence by the current leader of the party. They're all probably practicing their: "What a shocking surprise -- who could have seen this coming?" lines, just in case they'll need them on Election Day or soon after.

America is in a very dark and deluded place right now, and no one can predict how the upcoming election will turn out. It could be smooth and normal. But it might not be, at least not everywhere. Trump's Big Lie is now believed by a huge swath of the Republican base. Despite absolutely no evidence whatsoever having been found in the two years since the 2020 election, they still believe what their party's leader tells them (ad infinitum) while all the other Republicans either echo this delusion or quietly look the other way.

So no matter which party does well on November 8th, we're still downright worried about the midterm election. The election itself, not the outcome. And that's scarier than any Hallowe'en horror story, really.

Speaking of horror stories, let's check in with Trump's legal woes. This week saw the start of a fraud trial in New York against the Trump Organization (one of multiple investigations there). Trump's former chief of staff Mark Meadows was ordered to testify to a Georgia grand jury, but if he may appeal this up to the Supreme Court (and who knows what they'll do?).

Trump lost at the appellate level in a very old case, so a House committee may finally get to access his tax returns. And Trump's lawyers apparently have been desperately trying (using the strongest language possible) to talk him out of actually making an appearance under oath in front of the House January 6th Select Committee, so here's hoping they fail and he does show up.

All these investigations and cases are tightening the circle on Trump, in case you've lost track of them all. And the Washington Post helpfully added up all the jail sentences Trump cronies have already gotten and came close to a whopping 30 years' worth. And in many ways, this is likely just the beginning.

Out on the campaign trail, there were a passel of debates this week, but only one garnered any real media attention (which we'll be talking about a little later). The media has shifted back to "big red wave coming" mode, but the reality is that there are fewer actual polls being conducted, more and more of them are done by partisan organizations (who often skew the numbers favorably), and anything could happen on Election Day. So get out and vote! Prove the punditocracy wrong!

Attorney General Merrick Garland reversed a Trump-era policy this week and announced new Justice Department guidelines which will bar subpoenas, search warrants and seizures of reporters' records, in all but the most extreme cases. Which is a big win for the First Amendment.

Liz Cheney is openly endorsing Democrats in both Michigan and Arizona, now that she's been freed of any reason to show loyalty to a political party that has completely ostracized and shunned her.

A group of protesters gathered at the Russian Embassy in Washington this week to openly smoke lots of marijuana and display a gigantic (inflatable) joint with the message on it (in Russian): "Free Griner and Russians from Putin." This is in support of Brittney Griner, who lost her appeal and will now be headed to a Russian labor camp to serve out her Draconian sentence.

And finally, something to make everyone smile, mostly because it is not about our politics but instead Britain's. After their last prime minister lasted (we counted) only four Scaramuccis in office, we learned that the Chief Mouser of 10 Downing Street, otherwise known as Larry The Cat, will soon be welcoming his fifth prime minister to what is more his house than theirs. Which prompted a bit of amusement online (we're almost certain the cat-sized podium was Photoshopped in, but it's still a hilarious photo) of Larry gravely accepting some new duties. Cheers!





While a few Democrats had some impressive moments in this week's debates, none of them really made a splash in the political media. Barack Obama is finally entering the fray of the midterm cycle, which to us seems rather woefully late. What's he been doing up until now that he couldn't have made a few appearances?

We do have an Honorable Mention for Joe Biden this week, for making an announcement banning two specific (and insidious) kinds of "junk fees" from banks. Biden spoke of his broader initiative to fight such hidden fees not just in banking but also in airline pricing and plenty of other places. But the bank fees ban was the one which made it through the extensive federal rule-making process this week, all the others are still working their way through the system.

But we do have to say it smacks perhaps of "too little, too late." If Biden had announced it a month or two earlier, it might have had a small impact on the midterm campaign. If Biden had been touting this effort loudly and frequently, it'd just be another milestone on a continuing story of protecting middle-class consumers. But neither one of those is really true, so it just became the most recent thing (the last one was allowing over-the-counter hearing aid sales) that Biden has managed to accomplish to help average people that both he and the Democrats at large have dropped the ball on selling to the American people as a partisan victory. Which is why he wasn't even really considered for the main award this week.

Instead, the Most Impressive Democrat Of The Week was Representative Mary Peltola from Alaska. Since Alaska doesn't have all that many people, she had to win a statewide race to get to the House -- the first Democrat to do so in 50 years. But it was a special election, so she's now running all over again, to beat Sarah Palin and another strong Republican candidate.

This week, Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski actually endorsed Peltola rather than either of the Republicans running. Speaking at a meeting of Alaska Natives last week, Murkowski had some kind words for Peltola: "Mary is a woman whose heart is as grounded in Alaska as anybody you're going to find." Peltola is the first Alaska Native in history to be elected to Congress, it bears mentioning. So after the meeting, a reporter asked Murkowski if she was voting for Peltola. Here's what happened:

Asked if she would rank [Representative Mary] Peltola first on her ballot next month in Alaska's new ranked-choice voting system, [Senator Lisa] Murkowski paused. After a full 18 seconds, she said, "Yeah, I am." She then mumbled, "I'm going to get in so much trouble."

Asked to respond to Murkowski's de facto endorsement, Peltola said, "I'm voting for her, so we're even-steven."

That is pretty classy, we've got to admit. There is a Democrat in the Senate race but they don't have a prayer of winning, even with the ranked-choice ballot. The real race is between Murkowski and a Trump-endorsed MAGA candidate. So what Peltola was really doing here was putting country above party -- which was exactly what Murkowski was doing in the first place too (we wrote about a few similar cases on Monday).

For doing so, and for doing so without hesitation, Mary Peltola is easily our Most Impressive Democrat Of The Week.

[Congratulate Representative Mary Peltola on her House contact page, to let her know you appreciate her efforts.]





We have two candidates for Most Disappointing Democrat Of The Week this week, so our decision was based on the sheer volume of the disappointed.

Which means we only have a (Dis-)Honorable Mention to give to Pramila Jayapal, the leader of the House Progressive Caucus. This week, a letter from House Progressives to President Biden was released, and then within a day was retracted, because of the outcry among other Democrats.

With two weeks to go before an election, Jayapal apparently decided that it was a good time to release a somewhat-critical letter on Biden's Ukraine war policy. This letter (you can read the whole thing, if interested) several times urged Biden to explore "direct talks with Russia," which would leave the Ukrainians out in the cold. The letter was actually written (and signed, by most of the signatories) months ago, when the situation on the ground was quite different. Which makes it all the more confusing why it was released now.

Jayapal, rather unconvincingly, blamed it all on an unnamed overeager staffer who just sent the letter to the White House without permission. The blowback was pretty immediate, with even some of the members who had signed the letter saying they wouldn't do so now.

Our advice to both Jayapal and the whole Progressive Caucus: stick to your core concerns about domestic economic issues.

The timing couldn't have been worse -- right after Kevin McCarthy threatened that if Republicans take control of the House the Ukraine military aid might just stop -- and the politics of challenging your own party's president right before an election were horrible. So in terms of the level of disappointment, this one was actually worse.

But as we said, in terms of the numbers of Democrats who were disappointed, we sadly have to award John Fetterman the Most Disappointing Democrat Of The Week award.

We do so reluctantly. Fetterman suffered a stroke, just before the primary election happened. We can't remember this ever happening in the past (although some candidates have actually died before an election and still won). And we have personally known stroke survivors. We understand that not being able to get the words out don't mean that the words aren't there in the person's head. Verbal and auditory processing powers are not the same as cognitive abilities. And he's got a good comeback for all the complaints: "By January I'll be much, much better. But Oz will still be a fraud."

Even so, Fetterman's debate performance was painful to watch. The only saving grace was his opponent Mehmet "Dr." Oz stepping on his own two feet on abortion, giving his position as:

There should not be involvement from the federal government in how states decide their abortion decisions. As a physician, I've been in the room when there's some difficult conversations happening. I don't want the federal government involved with that at all. I want women, doctors, local political leaders, letting the democracy that's always allowed our nation to thrive, putting the best ideas forward so states can decide for themselves.

The phrase "local political leaders" is already being heavily featured in new Fetterman ads, as well it should be.

Even so, we have to count ourselves among those who think that Fetterman refusing to debate wouldn't have been as damaging for him politically as the debate performance he turned in. And for that, sadly, we have to say John Fetterman was the winner of the Most Disappointing Democrat Of The Week this week. We hope Fetterman continues to improve, we hope he wins, and we hope to see him prove his critics wrong when he takes his seat in January. But that debate was still painful to watch.

[Contact Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman on his official contact page, to let him know what you think of his actions.]




Volume 683 (10/28/22)

Joe Biden did promise us "boring."

We have to keep reminding ourselves of that, because he just isn't anywhere near the party spokesman he seems to think he is. We have long suspected that Biden's attitudes towards what to do to win elections is frozen in time, somewhere back in the 1980s or 90s.

Just once in our life we'd like to get another Democratic president that is really good at politics. Someone who knows how to sell their own accomplishments. Someone who can explain complicated things in a very easy-to-relate-to way and not manage to sound 30 or 40 years out of date.

Someone like Bill Clinton, in other words. Clinton had plenty of flaws, but selling his agenda and "explainin' stuff" was his true genius. Barack Obama would occasionally do an adequate job of it, but overall never even came close to the standard Clinton truly set. Joe Biden should be able to do this -- as we all know, he's from humble beginnings in Scranton -- but when he attempts it these days it never sounds to the listener as convincing as you can tell Biden thinks it is.

Case in point: the new "closing argument" from the White House. Are you ready for the talking point that's going to win the Democrats the midterm elections? Here you go:

Administration officials repeatedly described the Republican agenda as "mega MAGA trickle-down economics" during a conference call, echoing a phrase Biden used last week at a Democratic National Committee event.

"Republicans are doubling down on their mega MAGA trickle-down economics that benefits the very wealthy," Biden said Monday. "It failed their country before and will fail it again if they win."

They started out this election cycle with the cringeworthy "ultra-MAGA," and they've now come up with a brilliant way to top this: "mega-MAGA trickle-down economics."

Sigh.

Why are so many Democrats so incredibly bad at this wordsmithing stuff? In 683 of these columns (and counting) we have sadly never once had the thought: "Democrats have improved so greatly in formulating talking points and sticking with them that maybe it is time to retire the idea of a 'Friday Talking Points' column."

In other words, here we go again -- time for our weekly attempt to solve this seemingly-intractable problem. Here are our closing arguments we would urge campaigning Democrats to consider using.



Recession avoided

Tout today's good growth number!

"After two quarters where the economy slid back, we are now moving forward again. Growth was a healthy 2.6 percent last quarter, and that entire time Republicans were out there trying to convince everyone we were in a recession. But the jobless rate remains at a 50-year low and wages are still increasing. The recovery from all the effects of the COVID pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues. While Republicans are out there cheering for the economy to do worse than it is."



Their "plan" would make things worse!

Hit this one hard.

"Inflation, of course, is still a problem. In fact, it is a worldwide problem, although America is weathering this storm better than a lot of other countries. Economic signs are looking up, and we're finally getting inflation under control again. Meanwhile, the Republicans love to bring up the subject of inflation, but they have no idea what to do about it. They really don't. The only ideas they have are stale retreads of hoary Republican ideology -- like more tax cuts for the wealthy. That would put more money in the economy and make inflation worse -- but they don't seem to care. It's like they say -- if the only tool you have is a hammer, soon every problem will look like a nail."



Local political leaders?

Thank you, Dr. Oz.

"This week, Dr. Oz said in his debate that he wanted, and I quote, women, doctors, local political leaders, unquote, to be the ones to make a decision on abortion for that woman. Local political leaders? This was jarring, but in fact it is exactly what every single Republican out there is advocating. Allowing local politicians to make medical decisions for women. Oz even actually knew exactly what he was talking about -- he also said, 'as a physician, I've been in the room when there's some difficult conversations happening.' And yet he still wants local political leaders to have the veto power over these decisions. This is the world Republicans want all women to live in. Most of them are better at obscuring their true goal, so I'd like to thank Dr. Oz for phrasing the official Republican position so memorably. Democrats, of course, believe that such decisions should be made by a woman and her doctor. Period."



Books about divorce next?

Use a very broad brush with this one. Why not?

"Apparently, banning all mentions of gay parents in schools isn't enough for some Republicans. Not content with dictating what children can and cannot hear -- like the fact that some families have two mommies -- they're also dictating what can be in the school library. And the Republican running for governor of Michigan would even ban books that mention divorced families. Because apparently her kid read one and was exposed to the idea that a child could have two homes. Which they undoubtedly had already been exposed to, just by talking to their fellow classmates. Where does this moral totalitarianism end? When will the book-banners and speech-censors be satisfied? That's what you have to wonder with all these Republicans who want to police morality and restrict freedoms -- where will it all end?"



Democrats fighting to help, Republicans fight against it

This is a broader point and can be used with all sorts of issues.

"Democrats have been fighting to help average middle-class American families. We've fought to lower prescription drug prices for the first time. We fought to limit the cost of insulin, so evil corporations can't just hike the price a few hundred percent when they feel like padding their bottom line. We fought to make most hearing aids available over the counter, saving seniors thousands of dollars each. We are fighting to forgive student debt to give the COVID Generation a chance at buying a new house or starting a family. Every step of the way, we've fought for the little guy. And every step of the way, Republicans have fought hard against it. They would reverse a lot of what we've been able to accomplish, because Republicans care a lot more about big business making obscene profits than they do about family budgets. Democrats are fighting to help families while Republicans fight tooth and nail to stop it from happening."



Social Security and Medicare

To his credit, Biden has been leaning into this one, but it needs to be a lot more widely used by Democrats.

"Republicans are even openly admitting something they used to try to hide until after an election was over -- that they are coming with big axe for Social Security and Medicare. They're admitting that they're going to hold the full faith and credit of the United States to the rest of the world hostage in their quest to cut both Social Security and Medicare. Who in their right mind would even think of such a plan? As I said, Republicans used to deny this to the voters and then turn right around and do it anyway, but now they don't even care any more -- they'll tell you right to your face they're coming for Social Security and Medicare. And they'll threaten a global financial meltdown to get it, too."



Democrats fight for democracy

This is sort of a sleeper issue in most campaign coverage, but the voters care about it more than you might think.

"Democrats will fight for democracy. We will fight to keep American elections free and fair. We will fight any attempts to intimidate voters. We will fight for the right of all American citizens to cast their ballot, and we will fight to make the process as easy and accessible as possible. Republicans are openly admitting they are fighting against all of that. According to them, any election they didn't win was somehow rigged and should be overturned. According to them, the only legitimate election is where the Republican wins. This is so un-American it should frighten everyone. I don't know what they call that, but it is not democracy. They are openly telling you they will overturn the will of the people at the drop of a hat in order to seize or hold onto power. Democrats are not just fighting for Americans, they are now fighting for American democracy itself."





Chris Weigant blogs at: ChrisWeigant.com
Follow Chris on Twitter: ChrisWeigant
Full archives of FTP columns: FridayTalkingPoints.com

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