Tue Nov 6, 2012, 02:49 PM
NRaleighLiberal (56,599 posts)
History of how 5 election poll aggregate or betting sites moved from Thurs Nov 1 to Today
Lots of the data below - made it easy with some summaries up top. My call, by the way- election will be called 11:15 tonight EST for Obama, with an eventual total of 347 EVs.
Summaries: Intrade - Thurs Nov 1 9 AM 67.8, today Nov 6 1:30 PM 70. In between range, 64.1-71. Obama 303 EVs, NC red, FL pink Princeton - Thurs 8:02 AM - - Obama 308 EVs, 98.7% chance to win , today Nov 6 final update 312, 100% - has NC pink, FL too close to call 538 blog - Thurs 12:53 AM - - 300 EVs, 79% chance to win (81.4% Now Cast), today final update 313 (90.9) - has NC pink, FL pale blue Polltracker (TPM) - Thurs 9 AM - 303 EVs, today final update 290 with VA, NC and FL too close to call Huffpost - Thurs Nov 1 7 AM - Obama 277 EVs, today final update 277 with CO, NH, VA, NC and FL too close to call _____________________________________________ Intrade http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474 Thurs Nov 1 9:48 EST - 67.8% 12:20 PM - 68.2% 3 PM - 66.8 5 PM - 65.9 (this seems typical - some Romney money must be coming in) 9 PM 64.9 10 PM 66.7 11:30 PM 67.4 Friday Nov 2 Fri 9:30 AM 68.3 1:20 PM 66 4:45 PM 66.8 10 PM 67.5 Sat Nov 3 9:30 AM 67.5 1 PM 66.8 3:30 PM 66.9 5 PM 67.5 10 PM 66.5 Sun Nov 4 9 AM 64.1 noon 65.5 2:30 PM 64.8 4:45 PM 65.5 6:45 PM 64.9 9:30 PM 64.0 Monday Nov 5 9 AM 66.7 noon 66.2 3 PM 67.1 7 PM 68.5 (was in the low 70s earlier) Tuesday Nov 6 - THE BIG DAY 8:30 71% (was in the mid 70s earlier) 1 PM 69.5 ________________________________________________________________________________ Princeton Election Consortium http://election.princeton.edu/ Thurs Nov 1 8:02 AM - - Obama 308 EVs, 98.7% chance to win noon 312 EVs, 99.1% 3 PM 316 EVs, 99.1% (Random Drift 96%) 8 PM 315 EVs, 99.0% (Random Drift 96%) 11 PM 315 EVs, 99.0% (Random Drift 96%) Fri Nov 2 8 AM update 318 EVs, 99.2% (96%) noon 318, 99.3 4:45 PM 319, 99.5 8 PM 319, 99.6 Sat Nov 3 9:30 am 323 EVs, 99.8% noon 323, 99.8 3:30 PM 323, 99.8 5 PM 323, 99.8 10 PM 323, 99.8 Sun Nov 4 9 AM 319, 99.9 noon 319, 99.9 4:45 PM 318, 99.8 9:30 PM 303, 99.9 Mon Nov 5 9 AM 305 99.8 10 AM 305 99.8 noon 303, 99.9 7 PM 310 99.9 Tues Nov 6 8:30 AM 312 100% !!!!!!! 1 PM 312 100% ________________________________________________________________________________________ 538 blog http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ Thurs Nov 1 12:53 AM - - 300 EVs, 79% chance to win (81.4% Now Cast) 9 PM update - 303 EVs, 80.8% (304/83 Nowcast) 11:40 PM update 303.4, 80.9 (303.9, 82.9 Nowcast) Fri Nov 2 7 PM update 303.3, 81.1; nowcast 302.8, 82.5 8:30 303.7 81.4 (nowcast 304.3 83.7) 11:30 PM 304.8, 82.7 (305, 83.9) Sat Nov 3 12:45 AM 305.3 83.7% Sun Nov 4 8 AM 306.9, 85.1 (now cast 307.2, 86.6) 7 PM 306.4 85.5 (307.7, 87.5) Mon Nov 5 9 AM 307.2 (86.3) (308.4, 88) Tues Nov 6 8:30 AM 314.6 (91.6%) 1 PM 313 (90.9) _________________________________________________________________________________ Polltracker (TPM site) http://core.talkingpointsmemo.com/election/scoreboard Thurs Nov 1 9 AM - 303 EVs 4 PM 285 EVs 10 PM 285 Fri Nov 2 9:30 AM 276 1:30 PM 285 4:45 PM 285 9:30 PM 285 Sat Nov 3 9:30 AM 303 EVs Sun Nov 4 9 AM 303 noon 303 2:30 PM 303 Mon Nov 5 9 AM 303 noon 281 (CO back to tossup, as well as NC, FL, VA) 3 PM 290 Tues Nov 6 8:30 AM 290 1 PM 290 ___________________________________________________________________________________ Huff post http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map?hw Thurs Nov 1 7 AM - Obama 277 EVs 5 PM Obama 277 EVs 11 PM - 277 Fri Nov 2 9:30 AM - 259 12:30 PM - 259 2 PM 277 4:45 PM 277 5:45 PM 281 9:30 PM 281 Sat No 3 9:30 AM 277 EV 1 PM 277 3:30 PM 281 10 PM 277 Sun Nov 4 9 AM 277 noon 277 2:30 PM 277 Mon Nov 5 9 AM 277 noon 277 3 PM 277 Tues Nov 6 8:30 AM 277 1 PM 277 _________________________________________________________________________________ Everyone Vote! My prediction - Obama victory called at 11:15 PM tonight - will end up with 347 EVs GOTV!
|
2 replies, 3892 views
Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
![]() |
Author | Time | Post |
![]() |
NRaleighLiberal | Nov 2012 | OP |
librechik | Nov 2012 | #1 | |
Nye Bevan | Nov 2012 | #2 |
Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
Tue Nov 6, 2012, 02:51 PM
librechik (30,322 posts)
1. thx for the great post n/t
Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
Wed Nov 7, 2012, 12:25 AM
Nye Bevan (25,406 posts)