Biden is at 45/54 in exits, not great. TFG at 37/60 - OOFF

[DemocratSinceBirth]

...

[Claustrum]

1. That's actually not bad.

Does the exit include early voters? If not, that's quite a good number.

[DarthDem]

3. Actually, That's Good

Good news.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. It's okay news for 22, great news for 24.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

14. Except there was another question about Biden running again that was badly upside down

66/30 NOT to run again.

[Beautiful Disaster]

35. Eh. In 1982, only 36% of Americans said Reagan should run for reelection.

It's not uncommon for presidents to be underwater here this far out. Only 44% of Americans wanted Bill Clinton to run for reelection in 1994. Oddly, both Carter and Bush, two incumbents who lost, had a majority who said they should run. I don't ever read into that poll.

[viva la]

38. Obama looked like a loser at this stage in his first term-

Won a hearty majority two years later.

The incumbent is always unpopular halfway through (and your point about Carter and Bush suggests that popularity at that point isn't a good thing).

[AZSkiffyGeek]

4. The ones that stood out to me were...

70/27 Democracy is threatened
and 63/34 Biden legit won the election.

Those seem pretty positive.

[Mike_in_LA]

9. These are the big tells

Bigger than the rest.

Inflation is higher than abortion, BUT abortion was higher for much longer and for the duration of the early voter period. I think we win the timing effect on that one.

[Claustrum]

12. I saw AZ number that abortion is 6x/3x, Biden won 6x/3x.

But strangely, 50% strongly disapprove of Biden.

[Jskudris55]

37. You presume those are all democrats

Who think democracy is threatened. The republicans think democrats stole the 2020 election so they think democracy is threatened too…

[viva la]

39. The Repubs think democracy is threatened....

They're all for it.

[snowybirdie]

5. These guys

Aren't running.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. TFG is announcing next week

[Mike_in_LA]

7. Yeah, but....

The "legitimately elected" question is +63% for Biden. That carries more weight than the approve/disapprove you cite, imo.

[MerryHolidays]

10. Joe's number is very good for Presidents in the middle of their term. nt

[Beautiful Disaster]

31. They're identical to Obama's numbers in 2010.

Like exactly.

Let's hope for a better night.

[uponit7771]

11. 45 is good

[krawhitham]

13. Would you like to see Joe Biden run for president again in 2024? No 66% Yes 30%

Link to tweet

[AZSkiffyGeek]

16. I'm not sure what that means for tonight

But I've seen chatter here about not wanting him to run again - so there could be some straight-blue voters who don't want him.

[AkFemDem]

25. I know a lot of dems that don't want him to run again

Who are presumably voting straight blue tonight anyway. I don’t think one relates to the other.

[Azathoth]

15. Not horrible given he's an incumbent presiding over horrendous inflation

But the exit polls have given overly rosy impressions before.

[VMA131Marine]

18. There is reason to think exit polls should be pessimistic about Biden

Early and mail voters lean significantly Democratic so day-of in-person voting should have a Republican bias.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

20. I thought exits accounted for early voting... nt

[VMA131Marine]

21. How?

Exits can’t poll early voters or people who vote by mail.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. They most definitely include early voters or exits would be profoundly skewed.

45,000,000 + people voted early.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. They do but these are preliminary numbers.

That being said i expect the changes to be small

[maryellen99]

19. Inflation was way worse under Reagan

He then was re-elected in a landslide.

[Azathoth]

23. Not really

The inflation was under Carter. "Stagflation" was a huge campaign issue in '80 (which also happened to be the peak year for the inflation).

By 1983-84, Volker had crushed it by forcing the economy into a recession.

Reagan ran for reelection on the heels of a recession, not inflation.

[Beautiful Disaster]

29. Not fully true. In 1982, inflation was still 6.16%. So, it was definitely high and it hurt Reagan.

In the terms of 1982 midterms, the Democrats gained 27 seats.

I actually feel 2022 is going to be very similar to 1982. The Democrats only gained one seat in the senate that year, but that wasn't enough to actually win the Senate.

They did hold their majority in the House, tho. So, Republicans won the Senate, Dems the House.

[viva la]

40. I got my first mortgage in 84.... 11 7/8ths %

Inflation lasted a long time. Didn't help that Reagan kept trying those damned tax cuts for the rich.

[Beautiful Disaster]

41. Yup. My aunt bought a house in the 80s and it was something like 14%.

[WarGamer]

17. In general... the exit polls are bad for Dems...

Inflation, economy and crime seem to be heavily represented this time around.

We will see.

Just a few more hours until real votes are being counted.

[Ace Rothstein]

33. If the age makeup of the electorate matches the exit polls them we are fucked.

From CNN:

Only about a tenth of voters in this election were under age 30, while roughly one-third were age 65 or older. In 2018, about 13% were under 30, and about 26% were 65 or older.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

36. I'm seeing a slow buildup of lines at college campuses

So the kids may just be procrastinating…

[W_HAMILTON]

34. Absolutely wrong.

Inflation is just a few points higher than abortion, which is a big win for our side.

Crime is well behind the two of them, coming in around 10%, which is right around where gun violence and immigration is polling.

Don't know where you are getting your information from. Maybe a particular state exit poll rather than national. Feel free to cite your source.

[WarGamer]

42. absolutely State exit polls... GA and PA

[W_HAMILTON]

43. Then specify that, because your original post was wrong.

This was when national exit poll results were coming out and completely contradicted what you were claiming. If you were referring to a specific state, you should have specified so.

[WarGamer]

44. ok bud...

no need to argue, in a few hours we'll both know a lot more.

Frankly using California or Texas exit polls to make national implications is stupid.

[Murphyb849]

26. Actually that's good.

[Beautiful Disaster]

27. Biden's approval is identical to Obama's in the 2010 midterm exit polls - FWIW...

[mcar]

28. That's not bad

[skylucy]

30. A lot of things can change in the next year. Biden can beat Trump.

[W_HAMILTON]

32. 45% is actually pretty good, all things considered.

He had been polling the low 40s. I think probably the best we could hope for would be around 45%. Just with how fickle the electorate is, there's zero chance in today's hyper-partisan atmosphere that you would see a sitting president over 50%, so, all things considered, 45% is pretty good. I'll definitely take that, but I know they adjust exit polls as actual vote totals come in, so we will have to see how it ends up...