Even THE gold standard poll (Des Moines Register/Ann Selzer) was SHIT: They had Tom Miller up 16

[Celerity]

points (49 to 33) just two weeks out:

https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2022/10/25/iowa-poll-attorney-general-election-tom-miller-brenna-bird-2022/69563197007/

Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller leads challenger Brenna Bird by 16 percentage points among likely voters, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

Forty-nine percent of likely voters say they would vote for Miller, a Democrat, compared with 33% who choose Bird, a Republican. Another 5% say they would vote for someone else, 7% say they would not vote and 6% are not sure.

Miller is the longest-serving attorney general in the country and is seeking an 11th term this year. He is running on a message that he has used the law to serve ordinary Iowans through consumer protection efforts and lawsuits against opioid manufacturers.

he has very likely lost

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-iowa-attorney-general.html




Rob Sand, the only other statewide IA Dem left (and basically the main hope going forward for Governor or US Senator atm), is clinging on for dear life:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-iowa-auditor.html




Michael Fitzgerald, the incumbent Dem IA Treasurer, lost as well

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-iowa-treasurer.html

[ColinC]

1. Does Iowa have much mail to count?

That could definitely save every close Dem there!

[Celerity]

4. NBC has now called it for MAGAt Bird, ffs

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-elections/iowa-attorney-general-results?icid=election_statenav

[ColinC]

8. Oof

That sucks

[bullwinkle428]

2. This goddamn state is now completely MAGA-land. Like Michael Franken said,

no way in hell will I be buried here (or spend my "golden years" here).

Tom Miller was the embodiment of bipartisan support, over a ridiculous number of election cycles. That mediocrity Brenna Bird should not have come anywhere close to him in a sane world.

[muriel_volestrangler]

3. And 5 days out, they had Miller only leading by 2 points

Iowa Poll: Tom Miller holds narrow lead over Brenna Bird in attorney general race

Democratic Attorney General Tom Miller holds a narrow lead over Republican challenger Brenna Bird as Election Day approaches, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

Miller leads Bird 47% to 45% among likely Iowa voters. Another 2% say they would vote for someone else, 1% say they would not vote, 5% say they are not sure or do not remember who they voted for and 1% did not want to say.

The poll of 801 likely Iowa voters was conducted Oct. 31 through Nov. 3 by Selzer & Co. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
...
National Republicans see the race as a promising pickup opportunity and have poured money into Bird’s campaign. Her campaign has received $2 million this year from the Republican Attorneys General Association.

https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2022/11/06/iowa-poll-attorney-general-race-tom-miller-lead-brenna-bird/69616569007/

[Celerity]

5. What the hell happened in those 12 days?? A 14 point swing for that poll is madness.

[Bettie]

7. The real Iowa came out

I am now fully aware that I live among monsters dressed as humans.

[Bettie]

6. I hope Rob Sand holds on

he's a good guy and a great watchdog.