Despite his #OHSEN loss, Tim Ryan overperformed Biden by enough to help Dems win 3 key House races

[In It to Win It]

Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict

Despite his #OHSEN loss, Tim Ryan (D) overperformed Biden by enough to help Dems win three key House races. Still, losing Trumbull *and* Mahoning counties to J.D. Vance (R) has got to hurt.

Link to tweet

[cilla4progress]

1. Hard not to diss voters there.

But Ryan will be back. Maybe Joe can pick him up for an admin position.

Painful loss.

[True Blue American]

6. That is a perfect idea.

Tim is a hard worker. They hired Jones when he lost!

[Ninga]

2. Strange analysis. I do not think Tim Ryan had one thing

to do with those wins.
They won on their own merits.
Tm ran away from Biden and ran as a quiet D.

[True Blue American]

4. Ryan had not one drop of help from prominent Politicians and no money from the DNC.

I am disappointed that Obama never came, considering Ohio put him over the electoral count in his first run.

[Ninga]

8. He specifically did not want Biden and did not talk about

him in his stump speeches.
As it was explained to me “you can’t run as a
outsider and expect the party to give you money.
He did however, out raise Vance.

[True Blue American]

23. I never mentioned Biden. I knew

He did not ask for him. Obama is another story. The whole party let Tim down

I can only hope JD cares as much an
Bout Ohio as he says he does. Then he will help get things done as Portman did.

[W_HAMILTON]

9. If true, then rightfully so.

Ryan lost by close to seven points (for reference, Biden lost by around eight points in 2020). You can't overcome that big a statewide loss by throwing money at it. It would have just been money wasted that could have been -- and was -- used in much more competitive and winnable races that we did end up winning (e.g., AZ, PA, etc.).

"Prominent politicians" and the DNC absolutely made the right call on this one.

If you feel the need to criticize them, you can complain about how we should invest more in NC (which does look like a gettable state, in line with how VA used to be before it became bluer and how GA and AZ are now). OH is far too gone at this point. Before investing heavily in that state, Democrats there need to simply build from the ground up and show that it is worth investing there, because right now, it is not, at least not when you realize that funds are limited and there are many, many, many more states more deserving of those funds than OH at this point.

[Wuddles440]

20. Agree!

As reflected by the turnout in the metropolitan areas, his messaging did absolutely nothing to motive our base. He seemed obsessed with trying to appeal to moderate republicans and independents (rare and almost nonexistent in Ohio) by praising Traitor Don while criticizing Biden, Pelosi, and the Democratic Party. If I didn't know he was the Democratic candidate, I would swear that he was running as the republican.

[Raven123]

3. Ohio Democratic party needs to reassess their strategy. Maybe Ryan can play a role

He has his pulse on the issues. Need to reach more voters. Not sure of the final numbers, but reports last week said turnout in Dem dominated areas was low in early voting.

[Ninga]

5. Ohio State Dem Party is a no show. I really do not

know what exactly is their function.
Tim did not run a good race, he lost.

[Deminpenn]

7. The number 1 rule for Dems to remember

is that Rs will always vote for an actual R rather than a D who tries to run away from his party and Ds will be disappointed and stay home.

[Ninga]

10. Your answer.

[LisaL]

11. Yes, given the chance, republicans will vote for a real deal,

no matter how slimy that real deal is.

[bottomofthehill]

13. Well that is a big problem in a state like Ohio

There are a lot more registered republicans than democrats in ohio so if you can’t appeal to a few of them, by your logic, you can’t win.

[LisaL]

14. I don't think there are more registered republicans in OH.

It's just that they turnout to vote.

[bottomofthehill]

16. Two years ago, they had close to a 400,000 edge.

The democrats worked to register voters but I don’t think they overcame 400,000 in college voter drives.

[LisaL]

17. There are actually more registered democrats than republicans in OH.

"Number of Registered Democrats: 947,027
Number of Registered Republicans: 836,080"


https://www.ohiosos.gov/media-center/press-releases/2021/2021-10-01-a/

[bottomofthehill]

24. I will take your numbers as the source is the Secretary of State.

When I was working with the Cordry campaign they said there was a strong Republican voter edge

Also from this AP article

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Nearly 8.1 million Ohioans are signed up to vote in the November election, a near record, the latest figures from the state elections chief show.

The presidential battleground state has never seen more registered voters, other than in 2008, when Democrat Barack Obama faced Republican John McCain.

Figures released by Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose showed 8,080,050 Ohioans were registered as of Tuesday.

Democratic registrations have risen by over a quarter of a million since 2016, to nearly 1.6 million. The number of registered Republicans fell by 120,000 over the same period, with GOP President Donald Trump in the White House — but the party remains the larger of the two, at 1.9 million people.

[bottomofthehill]

25. That said, Your SOS source cited it the source thus I was wrong

[Deminpenn]

19. Doesn't matter, Rs aren't going to vote for a faux-R Dem

over an actual R.

[LisaL]

21. He was between a rock and a hard place.

OH is a very red state now.
It's very hard for a democrat to win statewide elections.

[bottomofthehill]

26. The Dem Nominee for Governor lost by over a million votes.

The party is in a bad place. There was a lot of ticket splitting in Ohio.

[bottomofthehill]

27. And most of the ticket splitting was on the democratic side

[Maeve]

22. This has crossed my mind as well

The first time I saw his ads, I wondered which party he was. He ran as a sensible R to a great extent which might have worked in a less insane Ohio. Unfortunately we are in a bat-shit crazy Ohio.

[LisaL]

12. Ryan run on appealing to republicans.

Could have contributed to lower turnout in Dem dominated areas.

[Raven123]

15. Definitely a good thought and one worth investigating

Although he was unapologetic in being pro choice, he anti wall, pro jobs. I didn’t see him as running away from the Dems. He was trying to point to issues on which he felt Dem. and Rep. voters in Ohio could agree on if they could see beyond the divisive issues presented by the GOP and JD Vance. Must my take.