AZ-06: It looks like Decision Desk HQ projected Juan Ciscomani's (R) win on Nov-9th but

[In It to Win It]

it seems no other outlet has projected this race yet.

I just found out that DDHQ projected this race days ago.

ETA: Wasserman called it

Link to tweet

[AZSkiffyGeek]

1. Today was not good for Engel

She has a path, but it is REALLY narrow.

[In It to Win It]

2. I saw that she had gained on the Republican, narrowing his lead yesterday

but his lead widened a little bit but not by an insurmountable amount

[ColinC]

3. And this was from votes from the most conservative part of pima

We might be able to expect the remaining votes to be much better.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

4. She lost votes on a drop where Hobbs gained

That’s not going to get her a win. She needs to get 1500 votes out of 40k. And there are still outstanding votes in red Pinal. It’s a tough lift.

[In It to Win It]

5. I've used DDHQ since 2020 along with several other outlets

I haven't seen DDHQ get it wrong yet, and they generally beat the networks to a projection, projecting a lot sooner than the networks. Is it looking like this projection is gonna stick?

[AZSkiffyGeek]

7. I'm getting skeptical

Until today’s drops I thought she was in good shape, but it’s not looking good.

[iemanja]

6. What is Decision desk HQ anyway?

Besides a Twitter account?

[In It to Win It]

8. They provided projections for Vox and 538 in 2020. That's how I first heard of them

They were the first to project Joe Biden winning Arizona along with Fox News, and also the first to project Joe Biden winning the overall election. They are often slightly faster to projections than the networks (which is why I use them along with the networks and AP) and I haven't seen them get it wrong yet.

They do have a website with their projections map like NYT, AP and others, but I also follow them on Twitter.

ETA: They also beat the networks to the Pennsylvania projections in 2020, which put Joe Biden over the top in their election projection.

[iemanja]

9. Ok. Thanks.

[In It to Win It]

10. Wasserman finally called AZ-06 for the GOP

Link to tweet