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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums11/23 article on recent poll: Warnock has slight edge over Walker in AARP runoff poll
ATLANTA, Ga. (Atlanta News First) - One of the first major public opinion polls in Georgias U.S. Senate runoff has been released, with Raphael Warnock opening up a narrow lead over Republican Herschel Walker.
The Nov. 11-17 poll, commissioned by the AARP and conducted by Fabrizio Ward & Impact Research, interviewed 1,183 likely Georgia voters, including a statewide representative sample of 500 likely voters, with an oversample of 550 likely voters age 50 and older and an additional oversample of 133 Black likely voters age 50 and older.
Warnock leads voters 18-49 by a 24-point margin, while Walker keeps it close due to his nine-point lead with voters 50+, who make up 62% of likely runoff voters.
Both candidates are winning their own partys voters by huge margins, with Warnock up 15 points with Independents.
There is a gender gap, with Warnock leading by 11 points among women voters and Walker up five points with men. Within the 50+ electorate, voters 65+ are backing Walker by 13 points, with the race closer among those 50-64.
Walker leads narrowly among voters without college degrees, with Warnock up 12% among those with four-year degrees or more. Warnock leads among Black voters by 81 points and Black voters 50+ by 83%, while Walkers edge with white voters is 36% and white voters 50+ is 56%.
Ninety-six percent of likely voters say they voted in the general election, and their recalled vote is extremely similar to their planned vote in the runoff across all demographics. Warnocks image is in positive territory at 51% favorable 45% unfavorable. Walkers image is slightly underwater at 45/49.
https://www.wrdw.com/2022/11/23/warnock-has-slight-edge-over-walker-aarp-runoff-poll/
The Nov. 11-17 poll, commissioned by the AARP and conducted by Fabrizio Ward & Impact Research, interviewed 1,183 likely Georgia voters, including a statewide representative sample of 500 likely voters, with an oversample of 550 likely voters age 50 and older and an additional oversample of 133 Black likely voters age 50 and older.
Warnock leads voters 18-49 by a 24-point margin, while Walker keeps it close due to his nine-point lead with voters 50+, who make up 62% of likely runoff voters.
Both candidates are winning their own partys voters by huge margins, with Warnock up 15 points with Independents.
There is a gender gap, with Warnock leading by 11 points among women voters and Walker up five points with men. Within the 50+ electorate, voters 65+ are backing Walker by 13 points, with the race closer among those 50-64.
Walker leads narrowly among voters without college degrees, with Warnock up 12% among those with four-year degrees or more. Warnock leads among Black voters by 81 points and Black voters 50+ by 83%, while Walkers edge with white voters is 36% and white voters 50+ is 56%.
Ninety-six percent of likely voters say they voted in the general election, and their recalled vote is extremely similar to their planned vote in the runoff across all demographics. Warnocks image is in positive territory at 51% favorable 45% unfavorable. Walkers image is slightly underwater at 45/49.
https://www.wrdw.com/2022/11/23/warnock-has-slight-edge-over-walker-aarp-runoff-poll/
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11/23 article on recent poll: Warnock has slight edge over Walker in AARP runoff poll (Original Post)
Fla Dem
Nov 2022
OP
Farmer-Rick
(10,170 posts)1. They admit to over sampling some subgroups of people
Their margin of error can be as high as 4.9%.
They are relying heavily on cell phone and landline phone calls.
Hmmm, not a poll I would bet my life on.
brer cat
(24,565 posts)2. Both sides are firmly entrenched.
This race is 100% about GOTV. I hope Obama helps with enthusiasm.