How much chance is there of Manchin switching parties

[tavernier]

since the Georgia run off was basically a deterrent of his anti-democratic votes?

[RockRaven]

1. Zero, if he wants another term. He would 100% lose a Repuke primary in WV and he knows it.

The only way for him to remain in office for yet another term, if it is possible at all, is to remain a "centrist" Dem.

[myohmy2]

2. I don't know...

...what could the turtle offer him that we couldn't meet or beat?

...I wouldn't put it past him if we didn't his kiss ass properly...

...

[Retrograde]

3. I'd expect Sinema to switch first

although what McConnell can offer her as #50 I don't know

[bottomofthehill]

4. They are only of value if they jump together

Thus handing the majority to the Republicans

[UTUSN]

5. My gut muscles can't take more thoughts.

[Takket]

6. he wields no power as a rethug.

[Kennah]

13. This. If he jumps, he's powerless unless he threatens to jump back.

[Fiendish Thingy]

7. Zero. Nt

[Murphyb849]

8. None

[48656c6c6f20]

9. Well.

Fírst I think he's already been asked.
Understand in WV he has to be a center/right Democrat.
Considering it would be political suicide he won't switch.
Keeping in mind that Mr Joe is a coal guy it
just makes sense he'll refuse any offer to switch.
Other than that I can't think of a good reason he'd risk
everything just to stay in power.

That's just my opinion.

[onenote]

10. He has key committee assignments as a Democrat

Chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, and also serves on the Senate Committee on Appropriations, the Senate Committee on Armed Services, and the Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs.

[FakeNoose]

11. Never happen - Manchin is a proud lifelong Democrat

Got nothing to do with Georgia or any other state.

[brooklynite]

12. Please stop with this foolishness...

Nothing personal, but this nonsense idea gets brought up every month or so. As much as some people here don't accept it, Joe Manchin is a DEMOCRAT. He was a Democratic Governor before he became a Democratic Senator. And he became a Democratic Senator (along with Joe Donnelly, Heidi Heitkamp, Mary Landrieu and Claire McCaskill) before the Senate Democrats became as Blue State liberal as they are now. He supports a substantial amount of Democratic policy and all of Biden's nominees. And the only likely alternative is that he gets replaced by a far more conservative Republican.

[Demsrule86]

15. +10000

[DemocraticPatriot]

17. All so noted, and I mostly agree...

but he has been the "Democrat" most responsible for thwarting party initiatives in the past 2 years, yes ??

but I agree that he will not switch parties, his ONLY HOPE for the next 2 years is to KISS the ASS of the Democratic base in his state!!


Regardless, I have not much hope for his re-election in 2024, should he choose to seek it...

Party voting "percentages" matter less, than what happened on the 'big issues'--

and he has given the BIG FINGER to the Democratic base in his state,
and in the entire country, for the past 2 years....

In a state where Trump won by a GOD-AWFUL percentage,
when you fuck your party base, you fuck yourself.

If the Republicans run a "very nice" election denier, who has not been caught having sex with "a dead girl, or a live boy",
they may very well win the next senate election for that seat... (no matter what the GOP House does)

(and even my cited notes are no longer 'disqualifiers', as things seem now... Republicans will vote for any candidate who beat his wife, pointed a gun to her head, and performed abortions on his kitchen table--- as long as they has that "R" by their name)

[Demsrule86]

14. 0 chance.

[DemocraticPatriot]

16. He voted to Impeach Trump

(once? or twice?? not sure. both times I think, without doing the research right now)


If he wants to run for re-election in 2024, there is NO CHANCE for him to win the Republican nomination for Senate in that state....


On the other hand, if he wanted to switch parties, he would no longer be able to deny control to the Democratic party--
such as it has been for the previous 2 years...


I consider it very unlikely, with the results of the 2022 midterms.



Manchin does not seem like a tadpole with the courage to 'swim against the tide', does he ??