Kyrsten Sinema has an 18% favorable rating in Arizona right now. Democrats: 5% fav, 82% unfav

[Celerity]

Drew Linzer
@DrewLinzer
Pollster, statistician, political scientist. Director at
@Civiqs
. Daily polling updates: http://civiqs.com

Kyrsten Sinema has an 18% favorable rating in Arizona right now.

Democrats: 5% fav, 82% unfav

Independents: 25% fav, 56% unfav

Republicans: 25% fav, 45% unfav

(Normally this is paywalled here so just screenshots)

Link to tweet

[Emile]

1. Looks like she running as independent will hurt the republican party.

[Celerity]

4. A Rethug like Ducey would destroy her in a one-on-one, there is no chance she will get

enough draw off from Rethugs and indies (there are only around 10% independents in reality, most listed indies actually reliably vote Dem or Rethug) to make up for the loss of Dem voters.

Even a full stop MAGAt stands a far better chance versus Sinema than a normie Dem like Gallego in a one-on-one.

Also, if she runs as a independent in a 3-way race (say Gallego, Sinema, and Ducey), that Rethug will win by even larger margins.

Her gambit is disastrous for us, not for the Rethugs.

[Tommymac]

16. And it is also good for Big Pharm. nt

[qazplm135]

32. Again I don't think

It's a given it's a disaster for us.

I think she's going to very quickly slide into irrelevance.

No one likes her. No one is rushing to the polling booth to vote for her.

I wouldn't be surprised if she takes as much from both sides and if her final numbers aren't closer to five percent than ten.

[Celerity]

35. I think she'll pull more from us (Dems/left to centre indies) than she will from the Rethugs/right

lean to RW indies in a 3 way race, especially if the Rethug is a Ducey or another non MAGAt type.

If it is a one-on-one, she also has little chance.

If we posit that we do stand down, we hold no Dem primary, offer up no alternative like Gallego or someone else, and then Ducey does run and gets the Rethug nomination, Sinema is likely toast in a one-on-one.

Only 10% max of the actual electorate are actually truly indie. Most independents have strong partisan voting records. Furthermore, IF the opponent is Ducey (or another non MAGAt type), Sinema will only draw off a TINY amount of Rethugs (Ducey won 95% of them in 2018, and also won 14% of Dems), and many indies will gladly vote for Ducey. He easily won by 14 points overall despite running into the buzzsaw of the Blue Wave 2028 midterms, and won indies as well.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/arizona



In a 2-way race, Sinema will never pull off enough voters from the Rethugs and indies, and she will also suffer a serious drop off in support from Dem voters, I truly fear.

[qazplm135]

45. I fervently disagree she gets anyone

From the left.
She's at single digit approval among Dems.

The only people who will vote for her are:

1. Folks who don't want to vote for a Kari Lake but also don't want to vote for a Dem, which is a null result really.

2. Anyone fooled by the whole both parties equally suck I'm a maverick nonsense, and it's quite likely those include a lot of voters who wouldn't really vote for either party anyways.

I agree it's a small slice of independents that aren't truly tied to one of the parties and none of the ones tied to us are voting for Sinema.

[Celerity]

47. I think we should run a Dem against her regardless

[lees1975]

48. This polling data doesn't show that at all.

And with Democrats now in a much better position in Arizona, especially in Maricopa County, I'd bet on Gallego's chances way above Ducey, who is not popular enough to win, or Loon Lake, the extremist.

[Celerity]

50. Gallego would certainly have a chance in a one-on-one against Ducey or any Rethug

Sinema, nope, not against Ducey

[W_HAMILTON]

21. No, it won't.

I don't know why people on our side continue to think that third-party candidacies benefit us. They do not. Rarely, if ever.

Republicans like her because she is a thorn in our side, but you know who would be an even bigger thorn in our side? An actual Republican. So, given the choice between Sinema and a Republican candidate, Republicans most certainly will be voting for the Republican.

[karynnj]

41. I would not take the Republican approval number to mean they would support her

They may simply like her being a thorn in our back.

If she runs, it is really hard to see where her support comes from. Her logic may be if both parties pick someone very extreme, she might get all of the I can't vote for someone that extreme.

[Emile]

42. Would you vote for an Independent who behaves like Sinema over a real Democrat?

I trust Arizona democrats wouldn't either. Yes she has a higher approval rating with republicans than democrats. My thoughts are she has a better chance of siphoning a few more republican voters than democrats, but not enough to even be close to winning. Her political career will soon be over.

[karynnj]

44. No and I doubt a real Republican would vote for her either.

What seems clear is there is no way she wins a three way race AND no way she gets a 2 way race vs just a Republican meaning no Democrat.

[brush]

2. Dems just won the gov. race, the senate race and sec'y of state race...

It doesn't follow that Dems would have just a 5% favorable rating.

Something's off. Maybe very mall sample size?

[Celerity]

5. It isn't Dems as a whole, it's only Sinema. Even if she is at 30% fav with Dems, that's still horrid

Kelly and Biden are over 80% fav with Dems, per MSNBC.

[brush]

6. Ok. Got it.

[Celerity]

7. all good m8!

[Hortensis]

46. Phew! Because as posted it obviously had to be waaay off.

[Dorian Gray]

3. She's killing it. lol

This woman really screwed the pooch for herself.

[brush]

8. Yes. Even with this switch, she's still widely unpopular and will lose...

if she runs in '24. I'm thinking she's a bit off. She's made some bad decisions in her voting.

Or maybe she's just trying to get rich and the hedge fund and pharmacy industries are filling offshore accounts for her or something, and then a move to K Street and lobbying...more bucks coming in?

If that's it, just trying to get rich, well, people do what they wanna do...

Being a respected US Senator is not small potatoes. And she's thrown it away as she won't be in the Senate in '24 after this laughing stock of a debacle she's made.

Rich maybe, but silly IMO.

[ananda]

9. For her it's $

$$$

[brush]

11. US senators aren't going begging. The salary is good and most end up wealthy from speaking fees etc.

Last edited Sat Dec 10, 2022, 08:34 PM - Edit history (4)

Guess she's impatient and wants to speed up the process.

Just silly IMO, what with the mini dresses, tank tops (she's no longer a spring chicken), and thumbs down displays in the well of the Senate. I'm thinking she's a bit koo-koo.

[ananda]

28. She's only interested in herself.

So many politicians are like that now, and
it's ugly.

[calimary]

51. I keep wondering why she favors so many sleeveless tops.

She doesn’t have the upper arms for it. And for Pete’s sake, this is the United States Senate! I would ordinarily expect a bit less on the bare skin, in her position and for her age. Credibility counts girlfriend. You’re in the United States Senate, NOT on your way to the next garage sale.

Arrested development maybe? She dresses like she thinks she’s still in high school.

[Botany]

10. I don't see her having to do any work ever after leaving the Senate she is going to be on the ...

... board of directors of big pharma, insurance, and for profit medical providers along
with spots on the board of trustees for right wing colleges such as Hillsdale & Pepperdine
so once a year she will have to go to Hawaii for some meetings @ which she will really do
nothing.

[Irish_Dem]

14. She knew she was very unpopular, her political career was over.

It has to be the money.

[Botany]

20. When I saw some of the votes she was casting and her "look @ me" act it became clear to me that she

... was bought and paid for because she was turning her back on the very same people who had worked so hard and
gave their hard earned money to get her into the US Senate but those little people's $50 checks are nothing compared to
the trillions of dollars to be made off our current for profit medical/pharma/health insurance industries. And those
industries just like the fossil fuel industry will fight and pay off who they have to in order to keep the gravy trains rolling
and I also think she is more than a little bi-polar too.

sorry to

[Irish_Dem]

23. Yes the senate was just a stepping stone for power and wealth.

She flat out lied to her voters to get elected.

When she got to Washington DC she quickly learned where the money was.
And who could help her the most in return for political favors.

Yes her mental illness is readily apparent.

Her statements about her childhood are so bizarre.

She claims she was raised in an abandoned gas station with no indoor plumbing or electricity.
Her parents failed her, etc.

Her parents were so upset about this they took her to court and showed receipts for utilities.

The people who live in the town say they have no memory of a family living in an abandoned gas station.
And that the city would not have allowed children to live there in those kind of conditions.

So we can see her narcissism and sociopathy.
Yes there is also a manic quality to her behavior like so many of the other celebrities/politicians.

[Botany]

29. Yes her mental illness is readily apparent. She is a grown ass person/US Senator not some 19 year

year old coed "finding herself." She posted the pictures of herself with her look @ me outfit, glasses, earrings, and fuck
off ring after she stopped a minimum wage hike. She is a very damaged person.

[Irish_Dem]

30. Yes she is very immature, self-centered, loves attention.

Everything is about her.

She wants to be rich and powerful.

And will do anything to obtain those goals.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

52. Robert Reich comment ...

Robert Reich about Sinema

Kyrsten Sinema single-handedly stopped Democrats from ending a tax break for hedge-fund managers and private equity executives.

Meanwhile, she received ~$1 million in donations from Wall Street.

Don’t be fooled: Sinema isn't “independent.” She's beholden to her donors.

[Tommymac]

17. Actually, she personally will probably get $$$$$$$. She is screwing the Dems most of all. nt

[Roisin Ni Fiachra]

12. Traitors are almost universally viewed with contempt.

Not only by those they betray, but by those who benefit from their betrayal as well.

Most folks of sound mind don't respect, or trust, a two faced, forked tongued, self-absorbed backstabber.

[brush]

15. Thank you. Your last sentence says it all.

She pulled a bait and switch act in getting elected to the Senate.

[Irish_Dem]

24. Exactly. She flat out lied to her voters.

For money and power.

[JI7]

18. Her numbers were low even before the party switch .

Which is why she did switch. To avoid losing the Primary.

[Irish_Dem]

13. No political payoff for her stunt. So it was about $$$$.

How much did she get for doing this?

[Tommymac]

19. Enough to buy many many schoolgirl outfits.

https://mediaproxy.salon.com/width/1200/

[TheBlackAdder]

38. Here's a close-up.

.



.

[TheBlackAdder]

39. Here's the thought bubble version.

.



.

[Renew Deal]

22. If that's the case, it's in our best interest to replace her.

Just for perspective, Trump and Bush had higher favorables with Democrats than Synema does according to this poll.

She will be a drag on democrats in the election. Pick someone really good and hope for the best in a 3 way race. We probably lose but at least we don’t stand with someone that is so disliked. One more thing to consider is that if she only has 5% favorability with Democrats, she might not take that many votes. I doubt she’ll hold most of the independents.

[Celerity]

33. If we posit that we do stand down, we hold no Dem primary, offer up no alternative like Gallego or

someone else, and then Ducey does run and gets the Rethug nomination, Sinema is likely toast in a one-on-one.

Only 10% max of the actual electorate are actually truly indie. Most independents have strong partisan voting records. Furthermore, IF the opponent is Ducey (or another non MAGAt type), Sinema will only draw off a TINY amount of Rethugs (Ducey won 95% of them in 2018, and also won 14% of Dems), and many indies will gladly vote for Ducey. He easily won by 14 points overall despite running into the buzzsaw of the Blue Wave 2028 midterms, and won indies as well.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/arizona



Sinema will never pull off enough voters from the Rethugs and indies, and she will also suffer a serious drop off in support from Dem voters, I truly fear.

[NQAS]

25. The large unfavorability ratings across the board r

Suggests that the well has been seriously been poisoned. It tells me that there is no confidence in political leadership and little civic trust. If this were a country, not a state, it would be ripe for being overthrown.

[rubbersole]

26. She's always been one sandwich short of a picnic.

This love for Mitch certainly has the look of a corporate money grab. I'd be very surprised if she ran for reelection.

[area51]

36. +1 n/t

[progree]

27. Arizonans have an 18% fav rating of Sinema but only a 5% fav rating of Democrats, 82% unfav, OMG!

Kyrsten Sinema has an 18% favorable rating in Arizona right now. Democrats: 5% fav, 82% unfav

Anyway, that's how I first read the headline .

Now I see that it's Democrats who have a 5%/82% opinion of Sinema.

[Emile]

34. More people than you at first read it wrong too!

[Tribetime]

31. If there was a far right nut job running as an independent

Maybe we could win if there was 4 in the race

[Celerity]

40. I agree

Dem War Hero - Gallego
Corporate Shill Indie - Curtsey Thee Sinema
Normie Rethug - Ducey
Batshit Cray Trumper Vermin Party- Toxic Lake

Gallego wins

[TheBlackAdder]

37. She is trying to unseat Ted Cruz as the Senate's most detested person. (Oh, did I say TRYING?)

[rubbersole]

43. Nah, teddy will always keep that title.

He's had such a big head start.

[Calista241]

49. She knew she was going to get primaried, and would most likely lose.

If she lost, and then ran as an independent, it would look like sour grapes and she'd probably handily lose.

Since she's going to have a 2 year history as an independent, nobody will be surprised when she runs, and she's gambling that Dems won't run against her because they fear she'd split the Dem vote. Mark Kelly won by less than 130k votes, it's not like it would take that many votes to hand it to the Repubs. It's a shrewd move, and if was played against the Repubs, I'd be super happy.

It's the same reason we don't contest Angus King or Bernie, it's because we'd split the Dem vote and the Republican would win.

[former9thward]

53. And we are supposed to believe this poll because?

These are all internet polls.