Anyone watching Berlin elections and have any insights?

[Kennah]

I realize the German CDU (Christian Democratic Union) Party is center-right and not the far-right of Germany or America.

Angela Merkel was CDU. Merkel's cabinets were a broad coalition of parties--with the far-right Alternative for Germany party noticeably absent.

Are we likely to see another broad coalition government formed in Berlin?

Who is the frontrunner to lead Germany?

[Elessar Zappa]

1. DFW, calling DFW!

He knows all about German politics.

[IbogaProject]

2. Couple of hours b4 he gets up

He is usually in Europe.

[brooklynite]

3. Clarification: this is NOT a national election

Berlin is one of the German States in addition to being the national capital. This is essentially the equivalent of a State Election in the US.

Berlin votes for Christian Democrats in re-run election

Berlin voted for a government for the city state on Sunday, in a re-run of a September 2021 vote that was so disastrously executed that the outcome was annulled by the courts. Early results show victory for the Christian Democrats.

That suggests that an era of 22 years of uninterrupted Social Democrat rule in Germany’s capital may come to an end.

According to results from exit polls reported by public broadcaster ARD, the Christian Democrats were leading with 27.5 percent of the vote, followed by the Social Democrats and the Greens, both with 18.5 percent.

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-election-city-state-berlin-votes-for-christian-democrats-in-re-run-elections/

[Elessar Zappa]

4. The Christian Democrats are centrists, right?

[Kennah]

6. Center Right, but her cabinets have had a lot of SPD folks

Olaf Scholz was her Vice Chancellor in her fourth term

[brooklynite]

7. From Wikipedia...

The CDU applies the principles of Christian democracy and emphasizes the "Christian understanding of humans and their responsibility toward God". However, CDU membership consists of people adhering to a variety of religions as well as non-religious individuals. The CDU's policies derive from political Catholicism, Catholic social teaching and political Protestantism as well as economic liberalism and national conservatism. The party has adopted more liberal economic policies since Helmut Kohl's term in office as the Chancellor of Germany (1982–1998).

As a conservative party, the CDU supports stronger punishments of crimes and involvement on the part of the Bundeswehr in cases of domestic anti-terrorism offensives. In terms of immigrants, the CDU supports initiatives to integrate immigrants through language courses and aims to further control immigration. Dual citizenship should only be allowed in exceptional cases.

In terms of foreign policy, the CDU commits itself to European integration and a strong relation with the United States. In the European Union, the party opposes the entry of Turkey, preferring instead a privileged partnership. In addition to citing various human rights violations, the CDU also believes that Turkey's unwillingness to recognise Cyprus as an independent sovereign state contradicts the European Union policy that its members must recognise the existence of one another.

[Kennah]

5. Thank you for that clarification. I was struggling to understand what the vote was about.

[moondust]

8. Conservatives projected to win

https://www.dw.com/en/berlin-conservatives-projected-to-win-repeated-vote/a-64680065

[DFW]

9. OK, I'm up!

Last edited Tue Feb 14, 2023, 02:04 AM - Edit history (1)

Most, though not all, of what I could have added, has already been mentioned. Berlin has statehood, like many wish for Washington, D.C., with its own state parliament. The election was for this, not a national election.

The CDU got more than any other party, but in Germany's "we're not the Weimarer Republik but we're getting there" salad of parties, Berlin is headed, like so many other States, as well as the Federal Government (Bundesregierung), for a do-nothing unwieldy coalition of partners, at least one of whom will be "unwanted-but-necessary."

The CDU got 28.2% (and that's a victory!?!). And they "won!" The Social Democrats, which has sunk to the status of "the party of bureaucrats," got 18.4%, as did the Greens. The extremist right, the AfD, got 9.1%, and the extremist left, die Linken, got 12.2%. The so-called "liberals (they're not)," the FDP, appears not to have made the 5% hurdle (4.6% at latest count), and so will not be in the government this time.

The reality suggests an unwanted coalition of the CDU, the SPD and the Greens. Since Berlin still harbors some sentiment for the old East Germany, the extreme left often does better there than it does in other parts of Germany. A possible coalition of the SPD, the Greens and the extreme left is theoretically possible, but unlikely. The extreme left talks like a Fox "News" interview. Once they open their mouths, no one else is allowed to say anything. The SPD can't stand the Linken, and the CDU can't stand the AfD. So, the CDU will probably be forced into a coalition with the SPD and the Greens. Ironically, ever since Merkel, the Greens have often found it easier to work with the CDU than with the SPD. The left-only coalition would be, if at all feasible, barely at 50% and hard to keep together (think 50 Democrats including Manchin and Sinema). A coalition of CDU, SPD and Greens would have a solid majority of over 60%, but would have to include a lot of compromising. In Europe, this usually means nothing happens.

Again, it is necessary to keep in mind that this is just a state election, though the state of Berlin encompasses way more land and people than Washington, DC. The population is around 3.7 million, where DC isn't even 1 million.

The CDU is not unified on all issues listed in Brooklynite's Wikipedia citation. The general trend is there, but it needs to be put in German context. Where Wikipedia says, "the CDU supports stronger punishments of crimes," it needs to be noted that robbery committed without a firearm, acts of domestic (or even public) violence, vandalism, and embezzlement or fraud are almost never punished by incarceration in Germany. Smash someone over the head and grab their car, purse, or life savings, and you will be out on the street the same day you were arrested. I once participated in the catching of a theft ring of infiltrated Croatians using phony German passports as ID. The police came to cart them off. My German colleagues, including those in law enforcement, were enraged when the judge said, "it is a mere passport violation. You are free to go." Can you imagine what would happen if a ring of foreign thieves with phony US passports were caught by the FBI in the USA? The CDU has lost a lot of voters to the AfD because of this.

Due to Merkel, their emphasis on integration of immigrants has met with much success. When the million Syrians were on the way, she wisely saw that that they were coming one way or the other, and allocated massive government resources to give them language training and job training. There were many educated people among them, as well as many who were not ethnic Arabs (Kurds, Turks, Assyrians, etc.). It was a huge issue ten years ago. Today, you never even hear a peep about it, which means that Merkel got it exactly right. The SPD, the junior coalition partner, saw she was right, and wisely went along.

As far as the dual-national issue goes, I haven't followed anyone's position on that recently. My concern was big in 1983 and in 1985, when my daughters were both born here in Germany. But this was pre-internet. I just called down to the US Embassy, got someone from the consular division on the phone (you could do that in those days), and asked what I needed to get US nationality for my newborn daughter. They told me, and I went down there--Bonn, before the move to Berlin. I walked into the Embassy and walked out with their US birth certificates, their first US passports and their Social Security numbers on the same day. These days, both my daughters had to go through dozens of online appointments, reams of documents, and the procedure took the better part of a year--for the one in Germany to get US citizenship for her children, and for the one in New York to get German citizenship for hers.

The CDU still opposes EU membership for Turkey, something I fully understand. Turkey speaks a language that is not European**, has an economy not compatible with the EU, is 99% Islamic where the EU is about 3.8%, and, except for a tiny sliver on the western end of the Bosphorus, is not even in Europe. Turkey is in Asia. It is currently ruled with an iron fist by a corrupt dictator who is just as likely to cozy up to Putin as he is to NATO. They may have nice lokum and Dürüm, but they are just not European.

I'm getting a bit far from the theme of the election, but there are many Turks in Berlin, and after generations of immigrants, there are strong connections, just as there are strong connections between many Chinese families in the USA and China. It doesn't mean any Chinese-Americans are clamoring for Taiwan or the PRC to become the 51st State.

As for Germany, nationally, Olaf Scholz is doing what he can, given his coalition restrictions, his personal experience as Merkel's vice-chancellor and his background as a bureaucrat (at this point, I'd prefer a former gas-station attendant--at least someone who knows what it's like to earn a living out there). The next scheduled federal elections are for September 2025, and I don't expect Scholz's coalition to fold before then. The FDP, who stupidly scuttled a planned coalition with Merkel's CDU and the Greens in 2017, got smart and didn't stick their nose in the air this last time. They are the junior partner in the ruling coalition, but they are not forcing Scholz to go back to the CDU for another "grand coalition."

**editing: I should have noted that Finland and Hungary also speak languages thst are not European. However, their geography, cultures, and current racial make-up are thoroughly European, which has been the main factor in their European integration. Romania, now an EU member, and speaking a Latin language, feels far more foreign to most Europeans than Finland.

[Kennah]

10. Thank you for this. Your analysis is every bit the equal of any on television news.

[DFW]

13. Plus, I don't have to leave time for McCsrthy's newest stupidity. n/t

[crickets]

11. Fascinating. Thanks for explaining all of this.

It helps a great deal in understanding the situation in Germany a bit better. I do wish more news outlets were able to explain so well.

[DFW]

12. I have two advantages

Not only do I live in Germany, speak the language, and am married for over forty years to a German social worker, but I am not limited to 90 seconds so as to make room for the Republicans’ newest fantasy about Hunter Biden’s laptop.