Just heard from the Marquette poll that Joe is 5% points behind Desatan & tRump.

[a kennedy]

https://www.tmj4.com/news/local-news/marquette-poll-shows-more-support-for-desantis-trump-over-biden

😳 😳 😳

[Meadowoak]

1. I call bullshit.

[a kennedy]

2. Sorry, the Marquette poll has always been damn close to the results......

[Demsrule86]

20. No it is not...and what is the point...Biden is the nominee. He has announced he is running...that

is it. These sorts of posts are not helpful...going to trash them.

[James48]

58. Biden is NOT yet the nominee.

We are still a year away from having a nominee.

[Polybius]

71. I'm still wondering why you trashed the Hilary thread where she mentioned Biden's age

I agree that she shouldn't have said it, but that's not what you're supposed to trash threads for.

[womanofthehills]

38. Sad - but another poll has similar results

The Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll has Trump up + 7. I don’t know much about these pollsters but the Hill & NPR are both covering this poll.

All the candidates have started campaigning- I think Biden has to start campaigning soon.

With everyone online now and candidates doing podcasts big time, I think this is going to be a very different election.

[anciano]

3. Not concerned at all at this point....

it's a year and a half until the 2024 election, and in politics that's an eternity.

[global1]

4. No Way - Bogus....nt

[mcar]

5. Nonsense

[triron]

6. If that is even close to being accurate then Americans

Deserve to lose their democracy. Totally fucked up electorate.

[Blaukraut]

37. This!

Even the most uninformed person in this country has at least gotten a little taste of what Trump and DeSantis, and by extension the GOP, are like. So anybody who thinks that's preferable to President Biden, even considering his age, is okay with the consequences of electing the crazies. The truth is that most people just don't think that any of the horrendous shit that would come down the pike will affect them. They think they can just go on with their lives as they are, as long as they have a job and a roof over their heads.

[walkingman]

7. I don't believe it. But I never discount who the GOP will support. I think it is a mental illness.

[ProfessorGAC]

8. Means Almost Nothing 17 Months Out

Too much could change & Joe's not campaigning, so there's no countermessage against the other 2 coming directly from a probable GE opponent.
I'm not even sure why Marquette is bothering with such a poll. They know it's not really predictive of much this far out.

[Shermann]

18. They also say it's going to be cloudy with a chance of rain then nt

[ProfessorGAC]

22. What % Chance?

I'm sure that's a meaningful number, too!

[TwilightZone]

9. Irrelevant

1) National polls mean nothing. The electoral college determines the presidency.

2) It's much too early to be freaking out about *any* polls, much less meaningless ones.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

29. National polls are highly correlated with the EC.

But I agree that polls 1.5 years out mean nothing.

[Demsrule86]

77. There were 803 people in this polls and more Republicans then Democrats too.

They also used landlines and cell phones...It is a bad poll from a right-leaning Jesuit college. Their Wisconsin polls have been accurate in the past but not the National polls.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/category/poll-release/

[rso]

10. Polls

The only polls that matter are those specific to the 8 or 9 battleground States.

[LiberalFighter]

11. Total bull. People are not interested in the upcoming election yet.

[elleng]

12. IGNORE

[everyonematters]

13. People think Biden is too old. There is nothing he can do about it.

[Marthe48]

17. They must believe what the news media says

and not what's occurring in front of their own eyes

[everyonematters]

26. They know his age. They watch him speak and move which shows he is slowing down.

They are not basing it on the clarity of his mind.

[Demsrule86]

21. You keep beating this dead horse don't you? Trump who will likely be the candidate is two

years younger. I think you are dangerously close to attacking a Democrat the the president no less. You don't speak for all people either.

[everyonematters]

23. I had the same dreaded feeling when Hillary was running for the Democratic nomination.

We have to face reality. They are fallible politicians not rock stars.

They are watching him speak and move which shows that he is slowing down. They are not basing it on the clarity of his mind.

[Demsrule86]

51. The difference is Biden is the president and has already won an election...and honestly, your

feelings don't mean anything. They really don't. We go with Biden because he is an incumbent and there is an advantage. He has also done a great job. Who do you think could win? I see no one this go-round who could take the rustbelt states except Biden which was also true in 20. And how many of the posts are enough...I have seen what five or six posts and one OP essentially bashing Biden and predicting that he will lose and based on what? It seems like a whole lot of nothing to me.

[everyonematters]

52. None of our feelings matter. The polls show the voters think Biden is too old.

His approval ratings show the low 40s. It's not my opinion, it's the voters.

[Demsrule86]

83. I would suggest that you not rely on polls and if you look at the Marquette poll which I don't like

Democrats overwhelmingly plan to vote for Biden...so if you don't like President Biden I get that, but he will be our nominee no matter how many polls which just like the bad polls of 22 do not take into account Roe, the attack on Medicare/Medicaid/Social Security and January 6th announcing that the sky is falling are posted. And he will win.

[everyonematters]

87. Up to 40% of the voters aren't Democrats. They are independents. Some of the Dems will stay home.

The polls are consistent.

[Demsrule86]

90. Democrats will not stay home. Posers might.

[everyonematters]

91. So the voters are looking at an election where one candidate is too old and the other one is a

rotten person. You say none of them will stay home or vote third party. It doesn't take much in a close election. That's what happened to Hillary.

[wnylib]

53. I don't see Biden slowing down.

But I know that MAGAs push that view and I think that some far left wing Dems also support that view. Bernie has said that he will not run against Biden in the primaries, but perhaps his supporters are looking for someone else from the far left who will take on Biden.

I think that some racists are concerned about Biden's age because IF Biden's health did fail in office, we'd have a Black/Asian female president.

I have faith in both Biden and Harris. And I hope that our own people don't sow divisions among Dems in this very critical election.

[DemocraticPatriot]

45. "People think"..... Isn't that like "people are saying...." ?

which is what you hear on Faux News and their ilk.


Well, I am "People" and I don't think Biden is too old....

I might have thought so when I was 20, but he's the only game in town for anyone who isn't a fascist racist traitor.

[ecstatic]

56. Actually there is

In my humble opinion, Biden should embrace a makeover. Even wear a toupee. Grow a beard. Spray tan (a natural tan, not orange). Optics matter. Get an acting coach to help avoid doing the things that people associate with being older.

Biden has done an AMAZING job but the feedback that I keep getting is that people think he's too old and they automatically assume the worst about his capabilities. It doesn't matter how many times I vouch for him, they see what they see, and they're judging him based on what they see. He wouldn't have to keep up the makeover for long, just enough to get past the election.

[treestar]

74. Then Trump is too old.

He's not that much younger.

[Peacetrain]

14. Let me put on my hip waders here!!

nah... I would not worry

[WarGamer]

15. I don't like the results of this poll, thus it is bullshit.

The poll last week, that I liked the results... was believable.

[ProfessorGAC]

27. Hardly The Point

And you know it.
Polls about, for instance, approval ratings, are relevant to this very moment.
A poll 17 months out before 50%+ of the electorate isn't really paying attention is inherently specious.
It has nothing to do with whether I like or dislike the result. It's a weak use of statistics & Marquette knows better.

[WarGamer]

28. I was just joking... maybe should have used the sarcasm thingie.

I'm speaking more of the reactions of people.

[ProfessorGAC]

33. Fair

We do see knee-jerk reactions to polls here.

[womanofthehills]

39. Unfortunately, it's not just Marquette

From Real Clear Politics, 538, & Harvard Harris Polling:

You almost can’t believe this ???? Trump is pulling ahead after his CNN performance says Harris Poll.

Biden needs to start campaigning!!


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

Harvard Harris poll https://finance.yahoo.com/news/may-harvard-caps-harris-poll-190000773.html

[ProfessorGAC]

47. Hardly The Point!

Again. These polls are not useful predictors this far out.
Who does the poll is irrelevant. A useless poll is a useless poll no matter who conducts it.

[Demsrule86]

41. All polls are bullshit this far out.

[Quixote1818]

16. Outside of Florida, few people know much about him. So he's going to poll like a generic Republican

at this point. And the last poll that showed results like this turned out to be an outlier and was flawed.

[Scrivener7]

19. Marquette and Rasmussen are always way to the right.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

30. Marquette is not right-wing.

But it's so early that there's no point worrying about anything.

[Scrivener7]

31. Whenever I look at RCP or 538, I always note that they tend to over-favor the republican

compared to other polls

[womanofthehills]

40. I think the worry is that all are campaigning

And Biden needs to get out there soon.

[Demsrule86]

42. It is...the college tends to the right and is in Wisconsin...

[roamer65]

24. Too far away from November 2024 to worry about these polls.

[GenThePerservering]

25. Gosh. Another poll

they're so...relevant.

[BannonsLiver]

32. Meh. Ebb and flow.

[sarisataka]

34. Just a minute while I put these on

Yup that poll is definitely wrong

[barbaraann]

35. I think the outcome of the Debt Ceiling crisis will have a big impact.

I'm hoping that Joe has a plan that will work for the American people.
I just can't believe that the DC Dems will let the GOP use this crisis to obliterate government and our party.

[Demsrule86]

43. I don't. I have confidence Joe will handle this.

[a kennedy]

36. Ok, we'll let me just delete this topic right here.

[Demsrule86]

44. You have every right to post as you choose but I don't see the point this far out.

and Marquette tends to slant right IMHO-but it is too soon. A poll this early has two functions-either to promote certain candidates (parties perhaps in this case) or to establish a horse race.

[DemocraticPatriot]

46. And a different poll put Joe that much ahead of them both

about a week ago. Both are "outliers" or maybe "outliars".


Also, at about this same point in their re-election campaigns, both Clinton and Obama were losing--
and we know how THOSE elections turned out...

[iemanja]

48. No poll is accurate unless it has Biden ahead

Didn't you get the memo?

[Demsrule86]

50. When you have a nominee...there isn't going to be a primary...too much at stake. And every time

a sitting president is primaried in the Democrat primary, we lose. What is the point of writing negative stuff about your candidate...it only discourages voters and we are too far out anyway. And just like in 22, the polls are ignoring Roe...which will be a big issue...a defining issue. And I think Biden has done a great job...mark my words the GOP doesn't want to run against Biden in 24 anymore than they did in 20.

[Silent3]

54. Quoting a bad poll is not "writing negative stuff about your candidate", plus you have no proof...

...that "writing negative stuff about your candidate...it only discourages voters".

In fact, if that were demonstrably true, then every campaign organization that sends out donation solicitations screaming about how desperately in trouble the current election is (unless you send money!) is sabotaging their own candidates.

I despise this oh-so-predictable chorus of "fake news!" every time an unfavorable poll is presented on DU. Let's leave that conspiratorial mindset to the MAGAts, please.

[Demsrule86]

61. A certain poster has done this over and over. What is the point? We need to win in 24 and

I have Seen no other candidate who could win the rustbelt states we need for an electoral college win. And some who continue to report these polls which are worthless this early out wanted a different candidate in 20 and have shown support for Kennedy and Marianne. Is that her name? I forget.

Christ, Kennedy is a Bannon selected candidate, and anti-vaxer with a findness for taking photos with right-wing villains. The GOP would love to run against anyone instead of Biden who will
beat them like a drum. Biden ( A great president) is our candidate; there won't be a serious primary. Thank God! And we are damned lucky to have him.

[Silent3]

63. I don't think running someone other than Biden is a good idea either

But I don't care how often that poster has posted polls that look bad. The OP also didn't say anything one way or another about any Democratic challengers to Biden. It's a link to a poll, and nothing else.

I think Biden has been great too. But we've got a lot of stupid voters who can't see that, and we need to track the stupidity out there. That stupidity is real, not a manufactured fiction of pollsters.

[Demsrule86]

76. This poll is shitty...and it is too far out-anyway...it has more Republicans than Democrats

Also, it is a national poll which is meaningless when we have an electoral college... a small sample size too. Biden needs to run so we can hold the presidency. And most posting these things did not support Biden in 20. This poll was posted again today...but is now gone. Take a peek at the internals and you will see why I am outraged.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/category/poll-release/

[Silent3]

79. Why are you so certain that it's the polling that's shitty, and not American voters who are shitty?

Yes, the poll could be off a bit. Maybe 5%. Maybe 10% even. But if American voters weren't collectively brain dead, Biden would handily beat Trump by so much even the shittiest polling would show Biden ahead.

[Demsrule86]

80. There are only 803 participants...and there are more GOP than Democrats...they use both

landlines and cell phones but don't break it down at all...I lived in Wisconsin Marquette is a Catholic school...jesuit in fact and leans right...this is a national poll with 803 and more GOP than Democratic participants...you seriously think it could be good? And it is years out from the election. People who take this poll seriously want to believe it is true in most cases IMHO. They think another candidate would be better and many (not saying you) grudgingly supported Biden in 20. Bus as in 20, Biden is the only candidate who can win the rust-belt states which are essential in the EC.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/category/poll-release/

[Silent3]

86. Properly weighted, 803 people is a fine sample size

Yes, I do believe it could be good. That is different from saying it's predictive, however. People focus more, not just learn more, as actual elections draw nearer.

But I absolutely believe the average registered and/or likely voter, at this moment in time, could be that stupid. Yes, indeed, that's the sad state of our idiocy-riddled culture.

Further, there's nothing in the OP but a link and three emoji. And how do you know "People who take this poll seriously want to believe it is true"? Some people post things like this because they're are scared of the bad news, not because they like it.

Biden is the only candidate who can win the rust-belt states which are essential in the EC.

Who are you arguing with other than a mental model you've created out of thin air based on unsupported guesses about the OP's motivations?

[iemanja]

70. The Press and polling agencies don't have a nominee

Nor are they supposed to. Perhaps you should put the entire site on ignore? You are constantly being triggered.

[Midwestern Democrat]

78. There are posters who seem to believe that banning the reporting of bad news will somehow prevent

the bad news from actually happening.

[Demsrule86]

82. I never said the OP should be banned. But I would say an OP with this poll posted earlier is not

to be found. I would not take anything down. I simply will post WHY this poll is not a good one and it isn't.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/category/poll-release/

[iemanja]

85. Indeed. nt

[treestar]

73. none of them are valid for now

it's too soon.

[bigtree]

49. polls this far out are bunk

Monmouth University Poll - May 25, 2023 - Voters More Certain About Who They Won’t, Rather Than Will, Support in 2024
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_052523/

[BannonsLiver]

55. The GOP primary is pivotal.

Until we get some clarity as far as 1. Who the nominee is going to be and 2. What the post primary landscape looks like for them and the country, these polls are worthless for anything beyond conversation.

Trump and the party have moved more to the right since 2016. They don’t even bother to camouflage the embrace or hard right authoritarian politics. Will that be too much for America? In my mind that’s what it comes down to. My expectation is that it will work out but there are no 2 words in our language more terrifying these days than “America decides.”

[videohead5]

57. Here is a poll a little over a week old

That has Biden up by 7 points over Trump. Things don't change that quickly in a little over a week. The election is too far away polls will be all over the place. This is the only link I could find about the poll.

https://nypost.com/2023/05/17/biden-up-7-points-against-trump-in-2024-election-poll/

[DFW]

59. Biden does NOT need to get out there campaigning

He currently holds the office of President of the United States, and gets a LOT of national news coverage any time he wants it. When POTUS speaks, the nation listens, the world listens. That‘s one of the reasons Trump lost the last election. It‘s one of the reasons Biden will win the next one.

[Demsrule86]

62. + 10000

I agree! And as always, the worthless polls ignore the impact of Roe. Also I believe De Santis's behavior in Florida has disqualified him for the General election...not that 'booger' boy will win the primary Anyway.

[shrike3]

88. Thank you

[Buckeyeblue]

60. I'm not sure how to even think about national polls

My guess is that the Republican candidate cannot win the national vote. It's only happened once since 1988.

I think there is too much that can happen in the next 9-12 months that will most likely inform swing voters.

I get that people are concerned about Biden's age. And being president seems to age people even quicker. But at this point, Biden will be our nominee and we have to get behind him to stave off facism.

[pwb]

64. Right, women forgot all about their lost freedoms.

Was this a poll of all males? What crap.

[Demsrule86]

81. 803 people in this poll and 344 were Democrats and 377 Republicans so that would be what

would be slightly less than 7 Democratic voters in each state assuming they did every state and an equal number of people. The number of Republican voters would be slightly less than 10 voters in each state with the same parameters as above...clearly, a shitty poll and meaningless since we use the electoral college and not every state counts equally. The sample size is tiny also...and their claim of accuracy is laughable if you crunch the numbers.

[betsuni]

65. Saw news, Jake Tapper said Biden's polls are "horrible" and most Americans think another

Biden term would be a "disaster" and a "setback" for the country.

My brains do not know what to do with that and sort of shut down.

Keep telling audiences how unpopular, unlikeable, old Biden is, how everything's his fault -- why can't he work with the nice Republicans? -- and that's what more and more people believe.

[Demsrule86]

84. I don't think that will happen this time. And with CNN's ratings not many will even watch.

Roe Roe you vote.

[dawg]

66. If that poll is anywhere close to accurate ... even if for just that one moment in time ...

we do not deserve self-government. We have no discernment and are not capable of collectively making rational decisions.

[dawg]

67. It's weird to see anyone above 50% in a poll this far out, though.

Probably indicative that some sort of statistical fuckery has been employed.

[Demsrule86]

75. There were less Democrats than Pukes and the weighted the sample...scummy poll.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/category/poll-release/

This is such a shitty poll.

[niyad]

68. So what are we supposed to do with that information? Curl up in a corner,

weeping helplessly?

[andym]

69. Reagan was behind Mondale and other Dems I believe this far out in 1983.

Many of us were hopeful that Reagan would be out the next year. Look up the results of the election: landslide for Ronnie. Why? In 1983 the economy was soft after a recession, stagflation was just getting under control, and Reagan was considered too old. By 1984 the economy improved, and Reagan got the credit--suddenly being old was a virtue.

[Demsrule86]

72. It is a national polls...useless...less Democrats than pukes and a only 833 voters in a

national poll! I suggest you look at the internal of this poll...the Marquette poll was posted again earlier today but I think it is gone now. Do you seriously think we should take this poll seriously?

The latest Marquette Law School Poll’s national survey was conducted May 8-18, 2023. The survey interviewed 1,010 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points. The sample includes 833 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.1 percentage points. The sample size for registered Republican primary voters is 377, with a margin of error of +/-6.1 percentage points. The sample size for registered Democratic primary voters is 344, with a margin of error of +/-6.3 percentage points. In the May poll, primary voters are those who say they will vote in each party’s primary. In earlier surveys, registered voters who identified with a party or are independents who leaned to a party were asked the primary-vote questions. For simplicity hereafter, these are referred to simply as registered Republican or Democratic voters.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/category/poll-release/

[LAS14]

89. My reaction to polls like this is....

....total dismay that I live in a country that could possibly contain anywhere close to 50% of the population who would support Trump or DeSantis. The percentages should be less than 10% for Trump. It's just scary.