Yikes! Supervolcano on verge of eruption....

[Sogo]

....could spark mass extinction and nuclear winter....


https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/supervolcano-on-verge-of-eruption-and-could-spark-mass-extinction-and-nuclear-winter/ar-AA1d3IIK?rc=1&ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=c187da81d33a4fe78cf84ad098e446ad&ei=13

[brooklynite]

1. What exactly is the daily express US?

And where is the actual scientific analysis?

[Snooper9]

11. just a clickbait crap website with a design from 2008

LOL

[muriel_volestrangler]

15. The Daily Express is a British tabloid much given to overhyping vaguely sciency things

and it puts the important words in CAPITALS, because it thinks its readers aren't that literate. Its competitor, Mail Online, has had great success with clickbait in the USA, so it's clearly following suit.

It also has an obsession with Campi Flegrei:

May 16, 2017: Campi Flegrei map: Where is the supervolcano and will it erupt?
Nov 15, 2018: Volcano warning: Campi Flegrei near Naples may be gearing up for eruption, warn experts
Nov 20, 2018: Italy volcano WARNING: Underground explosion in popular holiday spot could cause DISASTER
Dec 16, 2018: Yellowstone volcano: The supervolcano ‘REAWAKENING’ that could be as huge as YELLOWSTONE (this is also about Campi Flegrei)
Dec 17, 2018: Naples volcano eruption: Naples on ALERT - Could volcano DESTROY Naples?
May 13, 2021: Yellowstone NOT most dangerous volcano- Campi Flegrei eruption would force mass evacuation
Jun 16, 2023: Dormant supervolcano looming over bustling town 'moving closer to erupting' (that was prompted by the UCL paper, but they want more than one story from something like that)

[LudwigPastorius]

22. Daily Express seems obsessed with volcanoes.

...and sensational(ly wrong) headlines.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1082527/mount-st-helens-eruption-volcano-big-one-warning-geologist-spt

Correction
This article was originally headlined "Mount St Helens eruption FEARS: Volcano expert warns 'I have never seen anything like it'". Dr Donald Swanson witnessed the eruption of Mount St Helens on 18 May 1980. His quote 'I have never seen anything like it' was in reference to that eruption. The doctor went on to explain the efforts which the United States Geological Survey undertake to monitor Mount St Helens. The doctor did not claim the Mount St Helens was 'erupting'. The previous headline inadvertently obfuscated the Doctor's quote and we are happy to set the record straight.

[Hugh_Lebowski]

2. Clickbait, hyperbolic headline (I know you only copied it Sogo not blaming you)

Per the article, the danger is at a level of yellow on a scale that then proceeds to orange, and then red.

[honest.abe]

3. No sure where the "verge" term comes from.

The quote from the lead author is this:

"Our new study confirms that Campi Flegrei is moving closer to rupture."

I would not characterize that as on the "verge" of erupting.

[ITAL]

4. Looks like it's gearing up

But an eruption on the time scale they're talking is likely still decades away (given it's yellow on their rating system). Hopefully it's after I'm already gone, whenever it is!

[usonian]

5. UCL (London) originated the story and the local press took it up.

Link to tweet

As with all scientific papers, it only hints at what might happen.
It's up to the press to sensationalize it.

[brooklynite]

8. and UCL says nothing about a "supervolcano" or even an inevitable eruption.

[usonian]

10. Sensationalism doesn't bring in grant money, the lifeline of researchers.

But the tabloids love it.

[crickets]

6. Buried at the end of the article:

However, scientists are not saying a huge eruption of the scale capable of causing global winter is inevitable, with two conditions being necessary before that happens.

For volcanoes to blow, gases must build up faster than they can escape, and magma also needs to be able to move rapidly through the crust where a crack has formed. Scientists cannot know for certain these conditions have been met until an eruption takes place.

They added that if Campi Flegrei does erupt, it is more likely to be a small than a large explosion.

[Goonch]

7. Potential for rupture before eruption at Campi Flegrei caldera, Southern Italy

"Volcanoes reawakening after long repose must rupture the crust before magma can erupt. Rupture is preceded by repeatable variations in the rate of seismicity with ground movement, which trace the amount of applied stress that is released by local earthquakes. A rupturing sequence has been developing across four episodes of ground uplift at Italy’s Campi Flegrei caldera: in 1950-1952, 1969-1972, 1982-1984 and since 2004. We predicted in 2016 that the approach to rupture would continue after an additional uplift of 30-40 cm at the location of largest movement. We have updated our analysis with new data on changes in the numbers of local earthquakes with amounts of ground movement. Here we show that subsequent events have confirmed our prediction and that the unrest has been changing the structure of Campi Flegrei’s crust. The results provide new constraints for evaluating the volcano’s potential to erupt or to subside without eruption...."

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00842-1

[Ocelot II]

9. I'll add it to my growing list of horrible things to worry about.

But I can't worry about all of them at once.

[ananda]

12. CBS and The Jerusalem Post are also reporting this.

It sounds serious but not apocalyptic.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/campi-flegrei-volcano-closer-to-erution-last-erupted-1538-researchers/

https://www.jpost.com/science/article-745979

Campi Flegrei volcano is moving closer to rupture, not guaranteeing an eruption

Professor Christopher Kilburn, lead author and UCL Earth sciences expert, explained that while the study confirms the Campi Flegrei volcano is moving closer to rupture, it does not guarantee an eruption.

"The rupture may open a crack through the crust, but the magma still needs to be pushing up at the right location for an eruption to occur," he explained. "This is the first time we have applied our model, which is based on the physics of how rocks break, in real-time to any volcano.

[WarGamer]

13. Yup... Supervolcano is on my Bingo Card for 2023.

Along with thermonuclear war and a Trump nomination.

[EarthFirst]

16. Dang.

I hope my card fills first…

[uppityperson]

14. Here's a more balanced article from The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/24/one-day-it-will-just-go-off-are-naples-volcanic-craters-about-to-blow

[Xolodno]

17. Well that would fix global warming in a jiffy!

LOL! And the religious nuts will get their apocalypse! Its a WIN - WIN!

[Captain Stern]

18. Yikes! That article sucks. nt

[Iggo]

19. And still I'm not doing anything about it. That's so me.

[Hekate]

20. Don't look up

[hunter]

24. I don't worry about the natural stuff I can't do anything about.

There's no point. There's nothing the dinosaurs could have done to stop the Chicxulub impactor.

We humans have all the technology we need to quit fossil fuels now. We just have to do it.

Alas, maybe human avarice and ignorance is a natural thing too.

[Hekate]

25. I agree. I read some fantastical prediction of a super-seismic event at Yellowstone National Park

Can’t remember when I read it, but it’s supposed to wipe out everything for a thousand miles in all directions at some indeterminate time in the future. “Well there goes me,” I thought, and immediately put it out of my mind and went back to recycling my trash, because there are things I can do something about and things that are beyond human scope.

“Human avarice and ignorance” — what a beautiful planet we were given, and how sad the prospects seem now.

[FakeNoose]

21. I think the apocalyptic one will be in Yellowstone, but it's not ready to blow yet

[edisdead]

23. Holy clickbait

The end of the article

For volcanoes to blow, gases must build up faster than they can escape, and magma also needs to be able to move rapidly through the crust where a crack has formed. Scientists cannot know for certain these conditions have been met until an eruption takes place.

They added that if Campi Flegrei does erupt, it is more likely to be a small than a large explosion.

[pansypoo53219]

26. could save us from global warming. but need a big one.

[Shanti Shanti Shanti]

27. Meh, "could, if, might" , call me when it blows, volcanic predictions are clickbaits