Joe Biden may turn out to be our country's last democratically elected president ...

[Jrose]

and our last humane, empathetic, respectable and genuinely patriotic CIC, whether he wins the next general election or not..
...but let's hope and make sure he does.

[magicarpet]

1. America would be so much better off,..

... if the US House of Representatives chose the President to rule over us. Elections are such a cumbersome nuisance and time consuming. It would be a big boon for the public if we could be relived of that task.

The 1% and the oligarch class would rejoice at that thought.

[Initech]

16. Yeah no way in hell would I want the Qongress morons deciding the president.

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooope!

[kimbutgar]

2. I just can't believe that according to the abc poll that the orange maggot is at 51%

Why would the American people want a drama queen president and not a sane one?

[lees1975]

3. There's no way at all that's the case, when other polls show his unfavorability at 60%.

It's a lie.

[Arthur_Frain]

4. There are a few ways he gets there, IMHO.

First he’s got the evangelical/theocracy vote. The right wing propaganda machine did its job too well with this group, they have been brainwashed into believing that all liberals are demonic. No way they will ever vote for a democratic nominee. That’s what, 15% there, conservatively? But this core group also consists of super voters. Never miss an election.

Second, how many shit stirrers are there out there really? Boogaloo boys, Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, Sovereign Citizen shitheads, KKK and other white supremacist groups, et al? Not sure about the voting record of this group, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if it was another 10% of the population.

I’m halfway there already.

Add to that the usual conglomeration of single issue voters, homophobes, and rage junkies that the republican party seems to draw these days, the foreign influence from Russia and the Middle East, usually disenfranchised “independent “ voters, and you close in on those numbers pretty quickly.

[wnylib]

6. Dems outnumber MAGAs and Republicans in general.

Your demographic breakdown did not work for Trump in
2020.

It's the electoral college that is the problem. Trump will still hold the red states, but swing states are leaning Dem now, so your doomsday prediction is not a certainty. We still have a good chance to win this.

[Arthur_Frain]

10. A little harsh.

Don’t feel like I’m predicting doom. I was just pointing out that I see a few ways he gets to those polling numbers, not that I necessarily believe those numbers.

And dems may or may not outnumber magats and republicans as you say. I remember driving back and forth across the west in the run up to 2016 seeing a shit ton more trump/pence signs than I thought I should be seeing if Clinton was the shoo-in everybody seemed to think.

We’ve underestimated their numbers before, I hope the vote bears out your assertion, I’ll sleep better.

[wnylib]

12. There is no may or may not about it.

It is a fact that there are more Dems and Independents in the country than Republicans, and MAGAs are a percentage of Republicans. MAGAs in your drive in the West are to be expected. Look at a map of red states vs blue ones. There are more red states than blue, but they are less populated than blue states, so they have fewer electoral college votes than blue states. We lost in 2016 when traditionally blue states went red, but they voted blue again in 2020 after seeing what Trump was like.

Current polls mean nothing. The elections are too far away and the validity of the polls is dubious. The only way I see Trump winning is if he gets help from Russia or from state Republicans in interfering with voting machines or turn out. That is a risk, but our security agencies know that it is and are watching closely.

[Arthur_Frain]

14. Statements like that......make me wonder if we all lack empathy sometimes, not just conservatives.

There’s no way to prove statements like that. It’s not possible to canvas every single person AND get them all to be truthful. And so we turn to polling.

A red state/blue state is a label that we assign, no state is red, no state is blue, we are scattered across these 50 states in varying concentrations, usually aggregating together with like minded people, but not always. The polls may allow you to color your maps based on majorities, but that’s really all you get from them, polls are a sledgehammer when you need a rasp file.

I don’t mean to lecture. You are already aware of all of this I’m sure. I think your confidence is great, but I’d rather more uncertainty and more urgency, as I feel that broadbrush statements like “we easily outnumber them” lead to complacency in going to the ballot. Because as I’m sure you know, the raw numbers of Americans who feel the way that you and I do isn’t the issue, it’s how many of them get to the voting booth.

We are counting on a ton of younger voters, and I remember the general malaise that all my peers felt in our first political contests in 1980, it sure seemed pointless, and there was an overall feeling even then of “the system is rigged, why should I even vote?” Many of my peers didn’t. It seems worse now.

I also remember the vibe you’re feeling coming through in 2016. There was a lot of gnashing of teeth and wailing in general Wednesday morning, not just here, but all over on our side. We couldn’t believe how this had happened? How had we lost to that idiot? I’d really like to avoid that this time around.

We are definitely on the same side of the battle, I just don’t think it’s as much of a done deal as you seem to, and I’m not calling you dumb in any case, just because we don’t agree here. I see Saudis trying everything they can to jack the prices into orbit in the run up to the election, I don’t know what Putin has up his sleeve, but he’s hanging on hoping there’s some domino he can shove over to tip the balance.

And I’m a bit less sanguine than you about our “watchful” security forces, I have no way of knowing how many of them might be closet magats. The republican shit machine is nothing if not thorough, and it’s been grinding (and continues endlessly) 24 hours every day, and they’ve been more effective than I wish to admit.

I want our people voting. In droves. Their side is going to be. Because it isn’t just Fox News and limbaugh feeding them triggers and disinformation these days, now they’ve got OANN, Epoch Times, NewsMax. Jesus, the proliferation of right wing media on steroids is horrible.

I’d like a landslide victory just once. I know I’ll never get it, but this election, I’d settle for something noticeably more decisive than the norm.

[wnylib]

19. Regarding the numbers of Dems and left leaning Independents,

compared with numbers of Republicans in the US, here's what Wikipedia says.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states

It's very thoughtful of you to try to explain to me what polls are (e.g. saying that they are conducted because it's not possible to speak to each and every person) and how each state has a variety of political leanings. Rather obvious, though, so not really necessary.

Is it possible, though, that, you are not aware of the increasing unreliability of polls over recent years because of a number of factors? People today use cell phones instead of landlines. Many people, myself included, do not answer calls from unknown callers. And, there are more pollsters now than in the past. Not all of them are rigorous about following good practices in how they word questions and select people to question. Some intentionally build bias into their polls in order to use them to strategically influence the opinions of people who read the results. The poll results now depend on who conducts the polls and who finances them. The problem has been discussed often here at DU.

Is it possible that you are not aware that the majority of voters in several states traditionally vote for candidates of one party or the other? Or that consequently some states are regarded as favoring one party over another and that states where voting patterns are less predictable are called swing states? Sometimes a states shifts politically, e.g. traditionally conservative Arizona and Georgia giving a majority of votes to Biden Political strategists are well aware of those tendencies and take them into account in campaigns. Our Electoral College system makes it necessary to estimate and calculate which states a candidate for the presidency needs to win. Eliminate the Electoral College and you can eliminate red versus blue state labels.

So, California and NY are traditionally favorable to Democrats in presidential elections. And yet, California produced conservative politicians like Nixon and Reagan. NY produced Trump. Since I live in NY State, I am well aware of the variations of political views within a state.

So your post does come across as a patronizing lecture. And I am not nearly as confident about winning as you seem to think. I have often posted on various threads about the need to work hard in this election and not to become complacent. I do more than talking about it. I do phone banking and door to door. So I, too, am concerned about complacency of over confidence. But I am also concerned about apathy that negativity can cause.

Regarding our security agencies, and the security checks in place for voting, they worked in 2020 when Trump was in the WH. But, election stealers and insurrectionists learn from experience so they could be more efficient and sophisticated this time around. So it is good that we have the White House this time. And that we, too, have learned from experience. I expect a lot of attempts at interference with both voters and machines in 2024. Also some campaign intimidation and potential violence as we saw in 2020 with RWers forcing a van of Dem volunteers off of the road. If an ordinary person like myself can perceive those threats to a free and safe election, I suspect that people responsible for protecting the voting process are much more aware and are getting prepared.

[Arthur_Frain]

20. Want trying to be patronizing.

Just trying to be polite, but I fail too often at that here.

You have a good day.

[RunnoDeMille]

9. Don't forget that OTHER constituency that always has the HIGHEST turnout..

The "Couldn't Be Arsed" Coalition. These are that group of voters who might be pro-union.. might be pro-teacher.. might be pro-choice.. might be pro-sanity.. might support unions, infrastructure, women's rights, good education, and who prefer THEIR scientific reports NOT being defaced by a SHARPIE ... and they will have TWO critical reactions to the perils that face our nation. They will show up to vote for Trump for an incredibly short sighted limited reason... "Democrats are so hateful" "The stuff with the LGBTQ folks is getting too crazy" "My 401K was doing SO MUCH better under Trump" "Yeah.. but the blacks.." "Yeah... but Obama didn't make all of us millionaires SO what do we owe 'im..." OR they will sit on their hands.. their couch... the car ride home and NOT vote because "both parties are the same" "my vote won't make a difference.." "there was a vote today?" "What is a United States Government and HOW many of these judges have to be voted for?" .

Between the two of these groups stands people committed to vote for something other than fascism. I hope we get out and vote and that every last one of us gets out there to cast a vote. Come November 2024... even if the Dem ballot says HUNTER BIDEN... WE should be as committed to vote for our side as they are! Hunter is pro-gun and if HE wins he'll end some justice department cases too!

[Arthur_Frain]

11. The right wing propaganda machine operates 24 hours a day

On a frightening number of channels.

I think this comes down to who is more effective at getting their message out as it comes down to the wire. That concerns me indeed.

I hope the turnout is nuclear, and I hope it’s all millennials and gen z.

[peppertree]

5. They must've limited their polling to a couple of country clubs

"Oh, Thurston, are you sure you'll vote for that horrid man Trump? He's got even less class than his wife!""

"Lovey, if he cuts my taxes by another million - they can make him king for all I care!... Just so long as I don't have to golf with him."

[Initech]

15. Because half of this country is clinlically insane.

[lastlib]

7. Over my cold, dead stiff body will the Scared Puppy EVER get close to the White House again.

I will crawl over hot, acid-coated broken shards of glass to stop that f*ckwad from being elected.

[Jack-o-Lantern]

8. And don't forget the Nazis. Half this country has gone stark raving mad.

[magicarpet]

18. Oh the Nazis have always been there.

They kept buried in the woodwork out of sight. But trDump placed them front and center on the radar screen, normalized them, and gave their voice prominence in the town square.

The Nazis have become a very important factor in The Orange Menace's political base. They keep the home fires of hatred and violence burning to satisfy trDump's whims and marching orders.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

13. If TFG is re-elected in 2024, there will be no further POTUS elections

[Polybius]

17. I'd re-word it to say the next democratically elected Republican President will be the last

They gotta legitimately get elected first.