Poll: A fifth of Black voters want 'someone else' instead of Trump or Biden

[brooklynite]

Politico

One of the best-respected polls of voters of color shows President Joe Biden is facing strong headwinds among his most loyal base of support: Black Americans.

In the GenForward survey released on Tuesday and shared first with POLITICO, nearly 1 in 5 Black Americans, 17 percent, said they would vote for former President Donald Trump. And 20 percent of Black respondents said they would vote for “someone else” other than Biden or Trump.


According to the survey, about three-quarters of Black respondents said they would vote if the presidential election were held today, a figure that trails the number of white voters who said they would vote today by 10 points.

The GenForward survey is housed at the University of Chicago and was conducted with 3,448 eligible voters, including large oversamples with voters of color, from Nov. 8-30 in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The survey — which was conducted over the internet with a mix of respondents who were randomly selected to join a panel and those who opted-in to participate in the survey — has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.

[emulatorloo]

1. I don't think these "I want someone else besides Trump or Biden" polls have too much practical significance.

Good for clickbait and “thought pieces” by “opinion professionals”.

I can think of very few elections where the perfect candidate for me was running.

People will vote for who is running despite that, because of issues.

If the Politico thinks it can convince AA voters to sit home or vote Trump because of a clickbait headline, I think they are in for a surprise.

[brooklynite]

4. You know, its been a long time since someone here threw a "right wing rag" complain at POLITICO...

Who, by the way, are the Politico readers whose vote will be influenced?

[emulatorloo]

7. I have no clue what you are complaining about. My opinion is that "nobody wants a Biden/Trump

rematch” polling has very little to no practical relation to what’s gonna happen on voting day.

Furthermore I’ll add to that what Ms. Liberty said:

If the defendant is the actual nominee next November and the two real choices are him or Biden, I believe Biden will be the winner.

Democrats who “don’t want Biden or Trump” are not going to elect Trump.

On voting day that tidbit of information “i dont want Biden or Trump” will be irrelevant to them when they cast their ballot.

As one are one of the more practical level headed DU’ers around here, I fail to see why you think my opinion is controversial.

Your post seems like a non-sequitur.

[brooklynite]

10. " If the Politico thinks it can convince AA voters to sit home or vote Trump because...."

[emulatorloo]

23. Look my point is people may be flirting with third party voting a year out from the election

but I believe they will get serious about voting strategically when election day comes.

I think that’s a reasonable opinion/assumption, but if you want to attack me for it knock yourself out.

[brooklynite]

24. I have no objection to your analysis of voting patterns...

I DO have an objection to the unfounded assertion that Politico or “the media” is biasing polling results.

As I said elsewhere, I’ve had briefings from the highest level of the Biden campaign, and they see the election as neck and neck.

[emulatorloo]

31. Yes I saw your posts from the Biden campaign briefing. Appreciate those posts. Glad they are on top of it.

FWIW (and probably not worth much), I was trained in mass media, writing, and critical studies and I know negative ‘spin” in language when I see it.

The Politico is a useful source but I take what I read there with a grain of salt.

We’re just going to have to agree to disagree over Politico, which is fine.

I very much appreciate your posts, your knowledge, practicality, sanity, and cool head around this place.

[LiberalFighter]

22. If they don't want Trump or Biden but both are on the ballot what will they do?

Stay home and not vote? Or vote?

[DestinyIsles]

8. No I suspect they do these click bait stories for people like you

[TwilightZone]

9. It's not what Politico thinks. It's what the voters think.

Voting for a third party is neither staying home nor voting Trump, as you seem to be asserting.

It's not a hypothetical exercise. There are several third-party candidates in the race and several others in consideration. Voting third-party is partly what got us Trump in the first place.

I would agree if you'd argued that a poll like this means little at this time. I wouldn't agree that it means nothing at all or that a third-party candidacy is purely hypothetical. One of two candidates will win the presidency, but that doesn't mean that others will have zero influence on the outcome.

[emulatorloo]

19. 1) A poll like this means little at this time. 2) The article has a clickbait headline

Hope that clarifies.

[Septua]

27. "People will vote for who is running "

Yeah. We just got to hope they vote for the Democratic candidate.

[LakeVermilion]

2. The headline could be that 80% of Black voters are ok with Biden/Trump.

Just sayin'.

[emulatorloo]

3. Exactly. Typical Politico spin. Mountains out of molehills for clickbait purposes.

[brooklynite]

12. Trump can afford to have 20% of African Americans not vote; Biden cannot.

[Docreed2003]

29. 👆👆👆 all of this

I don't understand why some here have such a hard time accepting that this next year will be an uphill battle.

[ms liberty]

5. "If the election were held today"

While we have work to do, a poll that's a year out is only an indicator for the future. It's not set in stone. If the defendant is the actual nominee next November and the two real choices are him or Biden, I believe Biden will be the winner. Particularly after Biden has spent the year channeling Dark Brandon and kicking some you-know-what. Done right, this next year could mortally wound the GOP.

[womanofthehills]

16. If both wars continue- I do not see that happening

As you can see by the protests growing every weekend, we are losing some of the Dem youth vote.

We have Jill Stein getting 1 or 2%, Cornell West 2 to 4 % and Kennedy getting 7 to 22% in recent polls.

The Hill - “A new poll shows 1 in 5 registered voters are open to supporting third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in his White House bid in 2024.
The Monmouth University poll released Monday does not make clear the impact that his third-party candidacy would have on the race, with results indicating Kennedy pulls support equally from the presumed respective nominees of the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, President Biden and former President Trump.”
In a general election race between Biden and Trump, the poll shows 21 percent of registered voters surveyed will either definitely (6 percent) or probably (15 percent) vote for Kennedy as an independent.“ https://thehill.com/elections/4353917-rfk-jr-2024-presidential-race-support-poll/

[triron]

18. Do not underestimate the stupidity of the American voter.

[honest.abe]

6. I suspect about the same number for non-black voters.

[TwilightZone]

11. That 17% said they'd vote for Trump is more disturbing.

Third-party candidates often start out strong, then fade over time, so the 20% figure isn't really that surprising at this point and is highly unlikely to hold.

The 17% Trump figure is also unlikely to be representative of black support at election-time, but it's pretty disturbing at any point in the cycle. But then, so is the fact that 40'ish % of voters overall still seemingly support Trump and that his support seems unlikely to fade in any significant way.

Getting out the vote is going to be the key, as it usually is.

[MyNameIsJonas]

21. Agreed. If Trump wins 17% of the Black vote in 2024, he'll easily win the election.

In 2020, Trump only won 12%. A five-point increase would be devastating for Biden.

[MagickMuffin]

13. 3,448 eligible voters, including large oversamples with voters of color

Now that’s a real sampling of how many black voters that will be voting in 2024.


Polls this far out from an election is not worth the attention it receives.

[doc03]

14. I am not black but I would rather see someone else running, they are both too old.

I think Biden has accomplished more in four years than any president we have had in decades. I can't think of who could replace Biden and win the election and when it comes to Biden and Trump I wouldn't even think of voting for Trump.

[Fullduplexxx]

15. Something for the bed-wetter caucus over which to wet the bed

[brooklynite]

20. Biden campaign: "we are seeing higher rates of undecided and third-party support...

…among Black, Latino, Asian-American and young voters”

(Campaign briefing I received)

Acknowledging hard data doesn’t require feeling hopeless about it.

[uponit7771]

25. Another 3+ MOE poll 🙄🙄🙄. Politico loves to stir crap

[OAITW r.2.0]

26. more than 20% of white people will vote against their best interests, too.

[Traildogbob]

28. Well just fuck it all

Board up my windows, buy lots more ammo and just shoot em when they come for us. No more time to fret over an ignorant population.
Time to just enjoy the woods and my dogs while I can, and when the time comes shoot straight from my up hill position.
The “poles” say it’s all over, so stop all the bullshit, and live till they come. Meal team 6 are slow coming uphill, so I can thin a Few out for the rest of ya.
Then a tree can grow from my dead rotting ass.
Hopefully a Sugar Maple. Beautiful fall display.

[questionseverything]

30. We need ranked choice voting, then the 3rd party challengers wouldn't be so devastating

[struggle4progress]

32. Can't always get what you want

[JohnSJ]

33. Well that isn't going to happen, so what are you going to do? As for that 1 in 5 African Americans

going to vote for trump, I don't give a damn how "respected" GenForward is, 20% of African Americans are NOT going to vote for trump.

That makes this pollster in my book suspect.

They may not vote for Biden, but they sure as hell are not going to vote for a racist, sexist, and bigot.

Why in the f**k would they do that?

[brooklynite]

34. Because Blacks aren't a monolithic liberal voting bloc...

Trump's racism isn't a driving issue for all of them. A lot care about the same things White voters care about: the price of milk, their mortgage rate, the quality of their schools, their religious views, etc.

As VP Harris' former Comms Director said: "Black people want to be rich too", and non-college educated Blacks have the same TV-inspired view of Trump as a successful businessman that non-college educated Whites.

[JohnSJ]

35. Just like your prediction of what would happen in the New Hampshire primary. methinks you

rely too much on polls from reality.

[brooklynite]

36. Then provide the data that shows I'm wrong...

[JohnSJ]

37. I'll trust Maxine Waters on this thank-you

https://newsone.com/4974318/maxine-waters-black-voters/

[brooklynite]

38. Maxine Waters is in an urban D+32 district

Turning out Black votes in Los Angeles isn’t our concern.

Reality is that more Blacks voted for Trump in 2020 than did in 2016. Obviously his racist statements wasn’t a deal-breaker.