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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsPutin demands Ukraine's 'unconditional surrender'.
Putin says no peace until Russias goals in Ukraine achievedIn televised year-end address, Russian president calls for Ukraines unconditional surrender
Calling for the denazification of Ukraine, its demilitarisation and neutral status, the Russian president took a hardline stance that demanded Ukraines unconditional surrender, after Kyivs lacklustre counteroffensive this summer and delays in US military aid to Ukraine brought on by partisan infighting in Washington DC.
Tatiana Stanovaya, an analyst for the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, wrote: Putin just made a peace proposal to the west on the conditions of Ukraines total capitulation.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/14/vladimir-putin-peace-russia-ukraine-president
Walleye
(43,759 posts)Lovie777
(21,626 posts)maxsolomon
(38,130 posts)Putin could drag this war out for the rest of his horrible life. 10 years. He has no internal challenge to his authority.
If this Summer was any indication, Ukraine recovering all their lost territory is not a good bet. All that will happen this winter is that Russian lines will be hardened again, and Ukrainians will continue to be terrorized from above.
Sorry to be cynical about this. The game needs to be changed somehow, but the Traitor Party is about to pull the rug out from under Ukraine.
yowzayowzayowza
(7,081 posts)Troop mobilizations on the fringes of society are not going to be sufficient. The worm will turn when RUSSIANS who matter have to participate.
ETA. The Russian Navy has been mostly evicted from Crimea to be followed by the Air Force when the longer range missiles become more plentiful.
maxsolomon
(38,130 posts)fun dayn moyl zu Got's oyem, as they say.
former9thward
(33,424 posts)VELIATYNO, Ukraine Soon after Russias invasion in February 2022, Ukraine beefed up its border defenses near this Carpathian mountain village.
But the extra patrols and reels of barbed wire fencing rolled out along the top of a mountain pass along the Romanian border were meant to keep people in particularly draft-eligible men seeking to flee the country.
As Ukraine approaches its third year of war, those men are needed more than ever. The leaders are still pleading for more weapons and ammunition from the United States and Europe even as signs of flagging support among those allies suggest that Ukraine may have to do more to arm itself. But even more than bullets, Ukraine needs fighters, leading to a search for new ways to mobilize the population and stronger measures against draft dodgers.
Some of those seeking to escape hire guides to lead them through the mountains. Others make the risky trip alone. One of them, a 46-year-old man who lost his way last month, suffered severe frostbite and died soon after he was found. At least 25 men have drowned while crossing the Tysa River separating Ukraine from Moldova and Romania.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-cracks-down-on-draft-dodging-as-it-struggles-to-find-troops/ar-AA1lboL2
yowzayowzayowza
(7,081 posts)Due to the Russian meat-wave tactics, the ratio of losses to population is nearly the same. Ukraine is winning in every way but dirt.
former9thward
(33,424 posts)The year began with Western resolve at its peak, Ukrainian forces highly confident and President Volodymyr Zelensky predicting a decisive victory. But now, there is uncertainty on all fronts. Morale in Ukraine is waning. International attention has been diverted to the Middle East. Even among Ukraines supporters, there is growing political reluctance to contribute more to a precarious cause. At almost every point along the front, expectations and results have diverged as Ukraine has shifted to a slow-moving dismounted slog that has retaken only slivers of territory.
We wanted faster results, Zelensky said in an interview with the Associated Press last week. From that perspective, unfortunately, we did not achieve the desired results. And this is a fact.
Together, all these factors make victory for Ukraine far less likely than years of war and destruction.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/04/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-planning-russia-war/
yowzayowzayowza
(7,081 posts)Facts on the ground are that Russia is spending upwards of 3 times the equipment and 6 times the manpower to maintain this stalemate on the ground. Their missile attacks are being shot down at over a 90% rate. Their Navy & Air Force are increasingly ineffectual.
former9thward
(33,424 posts)But I think you are relying too much on optimistic statistics. It has been said many times that truth is the first casualty in war.
yowzayowzayowza
(7,081 posts)Igel
(37,324 posts)but so does the West.
The accusation that the West is supplying equipment and technology at the rate necessary to produce a stalemate is a hard one to resist.
When assaulted, you need to stop; when going on the offensive, you need everything all at once.
Now we provide A, then 3 months later escalate to B, and 6 months later to C. You need air cover to defend armor? Sure, you ask now for amor, in 14 months we'll allow you to start training, and in 16 months you can start training on aircraft. Meanwhile, the attacker adapts, learns, and digs in.
The West has a serious lust-affair with frozen conflicts for the last 70 years. It's like we're terrified of victory and the accusations of imperialism that comes with it--and in the chance that some idjit gets us to victory, we have to snatch defeat from its jaws by not having adequate follow-through to ensure peace and compatibility. Maybe we're just greedy--fixing up Japan and Europe post-WWII was expensive. Maybe we're afraid of words.
We learned in the Philippines, in Europe, other places all pre-1945 how to win. And we act like all those are horrible examples of what *not* to do, when what we've done since then has led to pretty much uniform disaster or disaster-in-waiting. Oh, did I leave out "... when what we've done since then in every instance has led to..."? There are frozen conflicts all over the place--Armenia and Azerbaijan was just one. Even Venezuela-Guyana is one, thanks to late-term revanchism and bred-in 3rd-world imperialism.
Emrys
(8,923 posts)but an extra aspect was that the West was scared of calling Putin's bluff as head of a nuclear-armed state, and possibly a trigger-happy one. I don't think that was just convenient posturing on our leaders' parts to justify less decisive support, I think the fears were real.
Now, having called his bluff and crossed his red lines numerous times and had him back down on every occasion like the sordid coward he is, there's less justification for caution. Time to carry on doing so, with a vengeance.
Efilroft Sul
(4,297 posts)moondust
(21,183 posts)Surely the Russian people know their megalomaniac is just using old WWII tropes to try to gain their support. "We're fightin' the Nazis again!!!! Let's go, fight, win like the last time!!!!"
Srkdqltr
(9,333 posts)Kennah
(14,465 posts)lpbk2713
(43,245 posts)
Deuxcents
(25,416 posts)Glory to a Ukraine 🇺🇦
Buckeyeblue
(6,180 posts)NATO could have severely impeded the Russian effort, maybe even stopped it. And even though Ukraine is not part of NATO an argument could be made that the Russian offensive in Ukraine is a threat to NATO countries (NATO was created to contain Russia).
But, and this is a big but, if Putin goes rogue and starts launching nukes, it's lights out for the world as we know it. Would he do such a thing? Probably not but you never know. Are Russian nukes even operable? Tough to know based on how poorly the rest of the military seems to be equipped. So essentially, the effort to stop Russia is one of risk management. We (NATO) could stop them today but the potential risk, unfortunately, is too great.
So this effort has always been about giving Ukraine weapons and support to prevent Russia from quickly defeating them. But I don't see how this is a winning strategy, unless the hope was that the Russian people would rise up against Putin. But they haven't. And even though over 300K Russian's have died in this war, there doesn't seem to be any plausible resistance to Putin's reign on Russia.
One has to wonder if the Cold War on our part was a big miscalculation that has lead us to where we are...a weak nation having world leverage based on their having weapons that could severely cripple the world. And they have these weapons because our policy of mutually assured destruction seemed to be surest bet to prevent nuclear war. But now it seems to have impacted the world's ability to contain and manage them in any real way. Not that this hindsight argument is in anyway helpful in determining a solution. But I wonder if it is part of the explanation of why we find ourselves in this position today.
Anyway, I've written way more than I intended...