Bloomberg: Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden [2022]

[speak easy]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/forecast-for-us-recession-within-year-hits-100-in-blow-to-biden.

Bloomberg September 2022. Famous last words.

Everyone expected a recession. The Fed and White House found a way out.

The economy’s strength and stability — defying many of the most optimistic predictions — represents a remarkable development after seemingly endless crises

This month, Biden’s typically staid treasury secretary gave an unusually direct rebuke, telling reporters that economists who predicted that lower inflation would require widespread layoffs were now “eating their words.”

Call it the most polite revenge tour Washington has ever seen.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/12/18/recession-economy-inflation/

[GreenWave]

1. So where are their apologies for the hysteria?

[stopdiggin]

6. some economists are actually walking back, offering some mea culpa

and of course you are never going to hear anything resembling apology or correction from Faux News or the political class.

It's all pivot on a dime - and let's talk southern border!

[maxsolomon]

2. Using the 2022 headline makes it appear that Bloomberg is predicting a recession

TODAY.

The WaPo headline would have been clearer.

[speak easy]

3. I've edited the OP - adding 2022 to the title.

[SWBTATTReg]

4. Goes to show just how biased Bloomberg is, and just as bad too in their so-called Economic News reporting.

Biased and bad reporting on all fronts. Note to self: DON'T buy anything from Bloomberg's. They're wrong on all accounts.

[JohnSJ]

5. Bloomberg is reporting what the Wall Street analysts are saying

[stopdiggin]

7. WAS reporting. But you're absolutely correct in that such 'reporting'

was far from some kind of wild outlier ... Near consensus for the time.

[yardwork]

8. Reaganomics is not dying quietly - but it is dying.

If Biden is reelected, I hope that Reaganomics will be gone for good.

[roamer65]

9. Time will tell.

The Fed should be cutting rates RIGHT NOW into falling inflation, but as usual they won’t it do until unemployment goes up and I expect they will pop the bubble in similar fashion to 2008.

Increasing unemployment is the most lagging indicator of recessions and is WAY too late to be starting rate cuts.

The Fed also needs to stop constricting the money supply via QT right now as well.

[gratuitous]

13. I can see the logic of your post

And I don't necessarily disagree. But I don't think the powers that be have quite yet factored in the effect of closing the southern border, as Republicans are currently demanding. With unemployment at historic lows, employers are having to reckon with the fact (for many of them for the first time ever) of a tight labor market. Workers have the option to pick and choose where they'll work and how much they'll work for, many of them for the first time ever. There aren't five or ten desperately out of work people lined up behind every job, so "If you won't do X, I'll hire someone who will!" is a meaningless threat right now. Pile on top of that the drying up of the labor market of undocumented immigrants, and employers will need to compete against each other to attract workers.

[Calculating]

15. Absolutely not

The market and tech in particular is still way overvalued with many stocks in bubble territory and PE ratios at historical highs. Lowering rates right now would just be an attempt to pump up the market some more when it needs to stabilize at these levels.

[roamer65]

16. Time will tell.

I think we will be back to ZIRP in 2025, or maybe even contemplating negative interest rates. On average, the Fed drops rates in a recession by 500 bps.

[Calculating]

17. Negative rates would create the mother of all stock bubbles and inflation

You'd have the dow at like 50k with sky high PE ratios and low dividends, and nobody would have a prayer at buying a house because corporations would buy them all.

[roamer65]

18. Not if the economy has crashed.

It may be the only thing keeping us out of a full blown depression.

[ffr]

10. In blow to Biden, Dewey leading him by double digits! READ ALL ABOUT IT!

When the media inserts itself into a news narrative that doesn't favor the horse race they'd like to promote.

[Warpy]

11. Yes, it will be engineered by the 0.1%

who will throw people out of work just because they can in order to make the statistics look worse than they are.

Whether it works any better than their plan to jack prices up to the stratosphere to convince us inflation was out of control while holding the line on starvation wages during a labor shortage is anyone's guess.

They really think a second TFG term will abolish their Federal taxes completely.

Nice of Bloomberg to let their plans slip out.

[bucolic_frolic]

12. The Fed confirmed this last week. They see room to ease, meaning a slower economy

It'll be mild. There's too much home gigs, remote work, multiple jobs for this to impact voters very much.

[usonian]

14. Economics relies on backward-looking data. Just like the AI being perpetrated these days.

You can read it at Toronto Sun. They bitch about adblockers, but reader mode cleans it up.
Probably by disabling javascript, but I didn't try that.

https://torontosun.com/news/world/forecast-for-u-s-recession-within-year-hits-100-in-blow-to-biden