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WarGamer

(12,615 posts)
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 06:56 PM Dec 2023

Russia's electronic warfare tactics are helping it turn the tide against Ukraine

Sorry for the "non-happy news story"... but it's reality.

Those of us who watch closely... Russia has been extensively using EW tools on the battlefield the last couple months.

https://news.yahoo.com/russia-electronic-warfare-tactics-helping-200000085.html

At first, Ukraine noticed its GPS-guided 155mm Excalibur artillery shells suddenly started veering off target. Then rockets fired with Himars, which Kyiv once boasted had “scalpel-like” accuracy, began missing their targets. In some areas, they almost always missed.
The same happened to JDAM guided bombs supplied to Ukraine’s air force by the United States.

Frantic investigation eventually discovered they had all fallen victim to a new threat – Russian jamming. Moscow has quietly developed a knack for taking out some of Ukraine’s most prized missiles and rockets.

It is a rare but crucial example of Russian technological advantage in a war that has been slowly tipping in Moscow’s favour.
71 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Russia's electronic warfare tactics are helping it turn the tide against Ukraine (Original Post) WarGamer Dec 2023 OP
Probably... 2naSalit Dec 2023 #1
Russia must be taken seriously as a rival; declared a state sponsor of terror, the FSB, GRU, and armed forces as ck4829 Dec 2023 #2
Yeah, what kind of country would launch an illegal war based on lies... WarGamer Dec 2023 #5
And then there are the actions against dissidents like Alexander Litvinenko, the Skripals, and Navalny ck4829 Dec 2023 #6
Caught Someone In A Sarchasm, Sir The Magistrate Dec 2023 #11
I was hoping someone would catch it. WarGamer Dec 2023 #12
I caught it. MarineCombatEngineer Dec 2023 #15
My Guess Would Be Iraq, Sir The Magistrate Dec 2023 #19
Thank you and you could very well be right. MarineCombatEngineer Dec 2023 #23
I Agree That One Was Necessary, Sir The Magistrate Dec 2023 #27
+100 nt WarGamer Dec 2023 #28
+100. nt MarineCombatEngineer Dec 2023 #50
On the "Justification Scale"... Vietnam was a better war than Iraq v2.0 WarGamer Dec 2023 #42
More like 90%, but I get where you're coming from. MarineCombatEngineer Dec 2023 #48
This message was self-deleted by its author MarineCombatEngineer Dec 2023 #49
But I'm not kidding. We need to do a better job standing up for the first victims of Putin ck4829 Dec 2023 #17
No bueno ck4829 Mar 22 #70
why are you dredging up a thread from December discussing EW in Ukraine? WarGamer Mar 22 #71
We need to get more Ukraine aid passed Calculating Dec 2023 #3
Shhhh!!! Your not supposed to say that. Xolodno Dec 2023 #4
Oh please... getagrip_already Dec 2023 #9
Have you ever heard... Xolodno Dec 2023 #13
It's all over from many sources. WarGamer Dec 2023 #20
You know that, I know that... Xolodno Dec 2023 #29
Thats tankie talk.... getagrip_already Dec 2023 #32
No one is supporting Putin... Xolodno Dec 2023 #36
What is over? getagrip_already Dec 2023 #41
Well, you won't like hearing it. Xolodno Dec 2023 #51
Nothing is finished, but everything is unsettled getagrip_already Dec 2023 #54
Feel free to disagree. Xolodno Dec 2023 #56
Whats that saying.... getagrip_already Dec 2023 #57
FALSE: Russia is NOT turning any tides...... getagrip_already Dec 2023 #7
Sounds like you only read news sources with Ukrainian flag logos on their Twitter feed... WarGamer Dec 2023 #8
False again... getagrip_already Dec 2023 #18
But the Ukrainian objective is to push Russia out of Ukraine WarGamer Dec 2023 #24
That is true, but not winning is also not losing getagrip_already Dec 2023 #34
I also think it's up to Ukraine. WarGamer Dec 2023 #38
That bill... getagrip_already Dec 2023 #43
THIS Ligyron Dec 2023 #60
They've Never Been Bad At The EW End Of Things The Magistrate Dec 2023 #16
They were pitiful at the start of the war getagrip_already Dec 2023 #26
The 'Sparrow War' Stuff Surprised Everyone The Magistrate Dec 2023 #30
This message was self-deleted by its author BannonsLiver Dec 2023 #69
Slowly tipping in Moscow's favor? Kaleva Dec 2023 #10
The CNN quote is misleading. WarGamer Dec 2023 #14
In todays modern warfare, its not the numbers of soldiers that count, MarineCombatEngineer Dec 2023 #21
You mean the ATACS and HIMARS which are being jammed left and right? WarGamer Dec 2023 #25
What you can't see is irrelavant. MarineCombatEngineer Dec 2023 #31
And yet... better tech doesn't always win. Numbers usually do. WarGamer Dec 2023 #33
I don't think your example Red Mountain Dec 2023 #37
I was pointing out that the Russians will trade high casualties for success on the battlefield. WarGamer Dec 2023 #40
Your mistaken, MarineCombatEngineer Dec 2023 #44
'favorite skirmishes of WW2' Strikes An Odd Note, Sir The Magistrate Dec 2023 #45
Well... the discussion here is about WarGamer Dec 2023 #64
Ah, Well, Sir --- I Must Be Kind The Magistrate Dec 2023 #65
IMO this ends like the winter war Calculating Dec 2023 #47
It's one thing that's happening for sure ColinC Dec 2023 #22
So now that we know this, should we know this? Omnipresent Dec 2023 #35
Of course the Russians know it. They're DOING it. WarGamer Dec 2023 #39
The Enemy May Be Safely Presumed To Know What He's Doing The Magistrate Dec 2023 #46
The Ukraine war has transformed warfare. Voltaire2 Dec 2023 #52
I always rely on the Telegraph for my military analysis Emrys Dec 2023 #53
Ukraine's skilled drone opeators are using tradition vector targeting just before impact. John1956PA Dec 2023 #58
Yes, that's one aspect. Emrys Dec 2023 #59
I've been impressed by how adaptive limbicnuminousity Dec 2023 #62
"likely affect a drone shortly before it strikes its target " Ligyron Dec 2023 #63
I'd been wondering about this Emrys Dec 2023 #66
Well, you can bet NATO strategists are watching. haele Dec 2023 #55
Bigger picture it. TheKentuckian Dec 2023 #61
Your 5th sentence and paragraph is a masterpiece of well written truth. Ligyron Dec 2023 #67
Don't get your hopes up. BannonsLiver Dec 2023 #68

ck4829

(35,119 posts)
2. Russia must be taken seriously as a rival; declared a state sponsor of terror, the FSB, GRU, and armed forces as
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 07:05 PM
Dec 2023

Terrorist groups.

It’s time to stop handling the Putin regime with kid gloves.

WarGamer

(12,615 posts)
5. Yeah, what kind of country would launch an illegal war based on lies...
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 07:11 PM
Dec 2023

kill 10's of thousands of civilians and destabilize an entire region for a decade?

Terrorists.

ck4829

(35,119 posts)
6. And then there are the actions against dissidents like Alexander Litvinenko, the Skripals, and Navalny
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 07:15 PM
Dec 2023

MarineCombatEngineer

(12,622 posts)
23. Thank you and you could very well be right.
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 07:40 PM
Dec 2023

I was retired by the time Bush Jr. decided to invade Iraq, but I did participate in Desert Storm, which, IMHO, was justified.

The Magistrate

(95,291 posts)
27. I Agree That One Was Necessary, Sir
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 07:51 PM
Dec 2023

In the same class as Ukraine. Post WWII, you just don't get to adjust borders by military means. It's a line worth fighting to hold.

Bush the Lesser's invasion of Iraq I thought stupid at the time and since. Saddam was a ripe shit, but was the keystone of an arch, holding a number of tensions in balance: between Sh'ia and Sunni, between secular and religious radicalism, even between Arab and Persian. And of course he'd nothing to do with the attacks on 9/11, and no weapons programs which posed any threat of sudden breakout sufficient to alter our abilities to contain him.

WarGamer

(12,615 posts)
42. On the "Justification Scale"... Vietnam was a better war than Iraq v2.0
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 08:23 PM
Dec 2023

The excuse of "Stopping the spread of Communism in SE Asia" was only about 70% lies...

Response to WarGamer (Reply #42)

ck4829

(35,119 posts)
17. But I'm not kidding. We need to do a better job standing up for the first victims of Putin
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 07:35 PM
Dec 2023

Dissidents and the people murdered in the 1999 Russian apartment bombings.

ck4829

(35,119 posts)
70. No bueno
Fri Mar 22, 2024, 07:25 PM
Mar 22

Kind of dodging Russia doing terrorism here

But I guess Russia does the “good terrorism”

Calculating

(2,959 posts)
3. We need to get more Ukraine aid passed
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 07:08 PM
Dec 2023

We cannot allow Russia to regain momentum and win this war or we'll have some MAJOR issues in the future.

Xolodno

(6,430 posts)
4. Shhhh!!! Your not supposed to say that.
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 07:09 PM
Dec 2023

Kidding aside, Russia is now deploying its new howitzers and they still haven't really utilized all there more modern equipment. One of the reasons we and Europe sparingly gave more modern equipment was due to this. If they figured out how to circumvent it, Russia could pass that info to Iran, North Korea, China, India, etc.

I already read articles where they have done so with captured equipment. I'm sure we still don't know the full repercussions.

getagrip_already

(15,197 posts)
9. Oh please...
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 07:26 PM
Dec 2023

Russia has depleted its modern arms and is using what it can beg from north Korea, China and Iran.

They are using trucks and tanks from ww2 and guns from ww1.

They can't build new su jet figghters or mi helicopters because those used to be built mostly in ukraine.

They can barely build missiles because they have to steal parts for guidance systems.

So no. They don't have a secret stash of modern weopons they are waiting to spring on ukraine and the west. Most of what they had has burnt already. The rest is in hiding.

Where do you guys come up with this?

Xolodno

(6,430 posts)
29. You know that, I know that...
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 07:54 PM
Dec 2023

...and many others. But you know, can't rock the narrative boat.

General Mikhail Kutuzov when he was fighting against Napoleon had more casualties than he did, but he took note that Napoleon's losses were still too heavy. So he withdrew from the battlefield and let Napoleon take Moscow and waited for the inevitable. That's pretty much what is happening here.

Number of articles out there already where they are trying to do back channel negotiations for a truce, cease fire, etc. However, Putin has signaled he is willing to wait out the spring and summer elections in Europe and November election here in the USA. Recent elections over there have shown a tilt towards more Moscow friendly leadership.

Personally, I think Biden should give certain advisors the boot, they are policy hawk dinosaurs. But he probably can't do that until his second term. But with Serbia-Kosovo and Venezuela issues starting to boil, think he should seek out new thinking a bit sooner.

getagrip_already

(15,197 posts)
32. Thats tankie talk....
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 08:05 PM
Dec 2023

Sorry, but that is right wing let's do putins fighting for him talk.

Putin isn't winning anything militarily, which is what the op was opining.

Politically, he has many paid allies around the globe, including in the gop and even in the media.

That can give the appearance, if not the reality, of winning politically.

The two may eventually meet, but for now they stand apart.

Biden is on the correct path of supporting Ukraine and opposing Putin.

To support putin and stinky the bandito is a right wing position I can't tolerate.



Xolodno

(6,430 posts)
36. No one is supporting Putin...
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 08:13 PM
Dec 2023

...just recognizing a reality. That being, the same mistake others have made in the past, underestimating the Russian war machine.

From an economics perspective (something I know about...or a least a fine piece of paper says I do), I know its over. But you are welcome to disagree, just not going to convince me and I look at pro Ukraine sites and they are painting a bleaker situation.

I have spoken.

getagrip_already

(15,197 posts)
41. What is over?
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 08:21 PM
Dec 2023

From an economic perspective?

I'm curious what your piece of paper has to say.

I've been following Joe blogs and others on russias economy, and they have interesting things to say. Not very healthy, but interested in your tske.

Our economy is doing quite well from many sources however. And all that noisy hardware we bought the uaf? 90% of the money stayed right here.

So what exactly is over?

Xolodno

(6,430 posts)
51. Well, you won't like hearing it.
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 08:47 PM
Dec 2023

The main industrial areas of Ukraine are now either under Russian control or mostly ruined and unlikely to be regained. We're talking a least a decade before the areas still under Ukraine's control are back at full capacity. And Ukraine is moving into a defensive posture, signaling, they know they can't retake much more it at all. They are going to be an IMF/World Bank basket case for awhile (good news if you are a policy hawk, Ukraine will do your bidding for a long time, Putin paid those loans down ASAP when he took over from Yeltsin, got to hand it to him, smart move).

Farmland, a portion of that is also under Russian control, heavily mined or no longer arable after they blew up the dam. That told me right there, Russia was planning on winding down the war.

Population loss, most who have left are probably not coming back, particularly the 3 million Ukrainians that fled to Russia. Which brings be to my next point....

Brain drain, we here it about all the time in our media about Russia, but its also very real in Ukraine. Many who had means, left to avoid the war, hence why they are now talking about trying to mobilize those abroad, they aren't coming back (and smart if you ask me, call me a coward, but I'm not going to die over perceived ownership of dirt).

Which brings me to another point, there is a segment of the population that would rather be under Moscow and another that's indifferent.

With population loss, you lose a tax base, a productivity base, capital, investment, etc. That's going to bite into your GDP. And you need a strong GDP to finance a war.

Finally, the real kick in the nuts. Excluding Russia, Ukraine has the largest natural gas reserves in Europe, recently discovered. Half of that is now either under Russian control or in a war zone. And unlikely to be returned.

The war, economically, is finished, barring some miracle.

getagrip_already

(15,197 posts)
54. Nothing is finished, but everything is unsettled
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 09:27 PM
Dec 2023

All in, Russia's economy is in far worse shape. Inflation, sanctions, collapse of the ruble, collapse of the energy sector, etc. They will be back to soviet Era rationing before long.

Ukraine will have the collective strength of the EU, the US, and other western nations to get back on its feet. Plus it will get the nearly trillion dollars in frozen russian assetts to rebuild.

But it will need its diaspora back to be sure. And it will need an eventual cessation of violence.

As for getting its territory back, I think they have an even shot at kherson and Crimea. It will be very difficult for russia to hold that territory. The key will be western help.

The other two regions will be tougher. Doable, but it will be costly. "If" Crimea and kherson are off the table, the game could change.

I think your analysis just makes a lot of static assumptions that may not hold, and ignores outside assistance.

Xolodno

(6,430 posts)
56. Feel free to disagree.
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 09:42 PM
Dec 2023

Hell, everyone else does both cyber and in real life. Sadly, I'm usually correct, but I do make the best of it and take advantage because....

This is the way.

getagrip_already

(15,197 posts)
57. Whats that saying....
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 10:00 PM
Dec 2023

Something goeth before the fall?

But by your analysis, Germany after ww2 never should have recovered. Its infrastructure was destroyed, manufacturing shattered, farming destroyed, manpower devastated, an entire generation lost, brain trust destroyed at all levels, etc, etc.

Yet......

getagrip_already

(15,197 posts)
7. FALSE: Russia is NOT turning any tides......
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 07:19 PM
Dec 2023

They are throwing waves of bodies and equipment at dug in defenders and in some cases, overwhelming them.

But they have not turned the tide of the war. At best, they have managed a stalemate, but a very costly one.

Yes, they have improved their nonexistant EW capabilities, and they have steadily increased their use and supply of drones.

But they are not gaining ground in any stregic sense. They move a kilometer here or there when the uaf decides to move back, but then they usually lose the very same ground again later on.

Even in bakmut and advika their gains are hollow.

There is no tide. They are not winning anything. They are dying in place and the only thing they have is more meat to replace the fallen.

Unfortunately, they have no shortage of meat.

WarGamer

(12,615 posts)
8. Sounds like you only read news sources with Ukrainian flag logos on their Twitter feed...
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 07:24 PM
Dec 2023

I follow unbiased people from think tanks and foreign policy experts...

The AFU Summer counter offensive was a failure, Russia now outnumbers AFU by about 200k troops and they now have advantages in artillery, FPV drones and EW... along with air superiority and AV's.

The AFU soldier is a BETTER soldier... but they're outnumbered.

Same as WW2. The Russians will give up 100 soldiers to take a building in Berlin with 10 Nazis inside... they have a long history of trading KIA's for objectives.

Neither side will be able to "win" this war. It's a hellish stalemate at best.

getagrip_already

(15,197 posts)
18. False again...
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 07:36 PM
Dec 2023

The uaf is not outnumbered in Ukraine.

Both the uaf and russian forces have about 800k troops deployed. That is a Russian number for Russian forces btw, the uaf number if from the isw.

It's true russia has about 10 times the population to draw from, but those aren't deployed.

And I never said the uaf offensive was a success. I said there was a stalemate, but one which has cost russia far more than ukraine.

Russia is not winning. No tide has turned for them.

They are being decimated, and if it weren't for their willingness to keep pouring blood on the ground, they would have been sent home.

WarGamer

(12,615 posts)
24. But the Ukrainian objective is to push Russia out of Ukraine
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 07:43 PM
Dec 2023

The Russian objective is to draw out the war until Western support dries up.

The original Russian goal of taking Ukraine, East to West and installing a Putin friendly leader is laughable.

Now they're happy to drag it out.

And you're right... the Russian military doctrine for the last 80+ years has been to trade blood for meters.

Remember the stories from Stalingrad? Waves of troops advancing on Nazi lines with insufficient weapons and they were told to pick up a weapon as the soldiers in front of them fall.

That's what Ukraine is fighting.

getagrip_already

(15,197 posts)
34. That is true, but not winning is also not losing
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 08:10 PM
Dec 2023

I'm in the never surrender camp at the moment, at least until Ukraine makes a decision for themselves. But I suspect that isn't going to happen any time soon, and I do not support pressuring them into it.

They aren't losing anything at the moment, and we owe it to them to give them everything they need to try to win.

Because if they do lose, putin, or his successor, will just pick a new target and we will go through this over and over again.

WarGamer

(12,615 posts)
38. I also think it's up to Ukraine.
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 08:14 PM
Dec 2023

I think the US is paying WAY too much of the bill... but I wish the EU was helping more.

But when it comes to "what should be done", it's not my circus, not my sword swallower.

getagrip_already

(15,197 posts)
43. That bill...
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 08:26 PM
Dec 2023

The money we pay mostly stays right here. It goes either to us manufacturers of goods or to accounting tricks to write down inventory we ship from military stores here to the uaf.

We don't actually send money to the uaf to buy stuff.

There is some expense we incur overseas, mostly for fuel and logistics, but the bulk of the budget stays in the usa.

The Magistrate

(95,291 posts)
16. They've Never Been Bad At The EW End Of Things
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 07:35 PM
Dec 2023

Jamming gets better, so does guidance and counter-jamming measures. Nothing stays still. What worked last week may not work today, at either end. It might well work next week, though....

getagrip_already

(15,197 posts)
26. They were pitiful at the start of the war
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 07:47 PM
Dec 2023

I could never for the life of me understand how purely recreational drones, the kind you could buy on Amazon, were being used by ukranian teens to thwart the Russian army in the first weeks of the war.

Virtually any jammer could bring those down. There are hundreds for sale on ali express alone, and modern armies have ew units assigned to front line units.

Why didn't Russia just jam the crap out of those?

The uaf knew where their columns were, where they were heading, and where individual companies were. It was critical Intel and kids were delivering it.

I don't think they got their act together until some time this summer. And by then, they had their own drone squads and had to worry about dropping them. Too much for Russians methinks. Send more vodka.

The Magistrate

(95,291 posts)
30. The 'Sparrow War' Stuff Surprised Everyone
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 07:55 PM
Dec 2023

No one was looking down there. Commit to high-tech, low-tech becomes invisible.

Stuff aimed at heavy weapon guidance and aviation was in better trim.

Response to getagrip_already (Reply #7)

Kaleva

(36,490 posts)
10. Slowly tipping in Moscow's favor?
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 07:29 PM
Dec 2023

Russia has been suffering huge losses

"A Prison at War: The Convicts Sustaining Putin’s Invasion"

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/04/world/europe/russia-prison-wagner-ukraine.html

"Russia prison population plummets as convicts are sent to war"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/26/russia-prison-population-convicts-war/


"CNN

Russia has lost a staggering 87 percent of the total number of active-duty ground troops it had prior to launching its invasion of Ukraine and two-thirds of its pre-invasion tanks, a source familiar with a declassified US intelligence"

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/12/politics/russia-troop-losses-us-intelligence-assessment/index.html

"Russia confirms damage to warship in Black Sea"

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67821515

WarGamer

(12,615 posts)
14. The CNN quote is misleading.
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 07:34 PM
Dec 2023

It's 87% of the force Rusia had IN UKRAINE at the start of the war.

As of today they have almost double the number of troops in Ukriane they did at the onset.

MarineCombatEngineer

(12,622 posts)
21. In todays modern warfare, its not the numbers of soldiers that count,
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 07:38 PM
Dec 2023

its the lethality of weapons systems, which Western weapons systems far out match Russian weapons systems.

WarGamer

(12,615 posts)
25. You mean the ATACS and HIMARS which are being jammed left and right?
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 07:46 PM
Dec 2023

Or the JDAMS falling from the sky?

Russian military doctrine is to overwhelm by sheer numbers and massed artillery.

Nothing has changed in 80+ years.

This looks like a stalemate. I can't see either side advancing much more.

MarineCombatEngineer

(12,622 posts)
31. What you can't see is irrelavant.
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 07:59 PM
Dec 2023

I know what Russian systems are and in my experience, they're shit.
They're no where near what Westen systems are, that's why Russia wasn't able to over run Ukraine in the first days of the war, Russia thought that they would roll up Ukraine in 3 fucking days and be marching in formal dress uniforms down main street Kiev.
Guess what, they thought wrong and have been paying a very steep price for their mis-calculations in blood and lost young soldiers.

WarGamer

(12,615 posts)
33. And yet... better tech doesn't always win. Numbers usually do.
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 08:08 PM
Dec 2023

In 1944/1945 the Germans had the most advanced LMG's made, the finest rifles, best AT artillery "88's" and the most effective handheld AT weapons of the war... the Panzerfaust. The nastiest tanks and jet fighters overhead.

But they were washed away in a flood of Red armies.

Boy, did they pay the price.

One of my favorite skirmishes of WW2 was during the Battle of Berlin, near the Neukolln Rathaus... a few dozen German SS soldiers, members of the French volunteers "Charlemagne" Division held beck a 1000 Russian soldiers and hundreds of armored vehicles for an afternoon... the Russians suffered frightening losses but kept coming.

Like in Estonia at the "Battle of the Tannenberg Line" in 1944... Estonian SS volunteers fought Russian troops to a standstill and affected an orderly withdrawal... leaving dozens of destroyed tanks on the hillsides.

And to be honest... nothing has really changed.

WarGamer

(12,615 posts)
40. I was pointing out that the Russians will trade high casualties for success on the battlefield.
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 08:17 PM
Dec 2023

That's all... their soldiers are lower quality but they're willing to lose more.

And don't forget, the AFU is now conscripting men up to 60 years old and many of the strapping 20-somethings fighting in 2022 are long gone.

MarineCombatEngineer

(12,622 posts)
44. Your mistaken,
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 08:27 PM
Dec 2023

this isn't 1944-45, modern warfare is nowhere near there now, it's all about technology, not numbers, of which the western world far outclasses Russian technology.

The Magistrate

(95,291 posts)
45. 'favorite skirmishes of WW2' Strikes An Odd Note, Sir
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 08:33 PM
Dec 2023

As does the picture of a doughty band of Waffen-SS going out in a blaze of glory you sketch.


"Comedy is best left to professionals."


WarGamer

(12,615 posts)
64. Well... the discussion here is about
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 11:45 PM
Dec 2023

The Russians sacrificing huge number of troops and equipment for small gains...

And what better historical evidence than WW2 which the Russians fought against...

The Germans.

So that's "why".

In addition... as a lifelong focus of mine, I've been to a LOT of battlefields.

Big ones where you're only seeing a piece of the battlefield... like in the suburbs of Moscow where the German invasion progress ENDED in 1941. I've been there.

The Battle of Tours, outside Poitiers... one must really use their imagination because the battle was 1300 years ago.

Berlin, where I sat and drank coffee in front of the Neukolln Rathaus looking at the bullet holes still marking the facade of the building.

Tannenberg Line? Been there too... A train east from Tallinn into the very sketchy East side of Estonia where I never felt safe.

As of the 2000's they STILL celebrated the Estonian SS soldiers who fought the Russians... even had a parade. Pissed off the Russians to no end.

Monte Cassino, a day trip on one of my Rome trips.

Normandy, of course...

Calculating

(2,959 posts)
47. IMO this ends like the winter war
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 08:40 PM
Dec 2023

Ukraine keeps it's independence and can claim a moral victory of sorts, but they lose some of the land that the bear was able to claw from them. Ultimately they'll need NATO membership or nukes to keep Russia from trying again.

ColinC

(8,397 posts)
22. It's one thing that's happening for sure
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 07:40 PM
Dec 2023

But there’s pushback on both sides in different ways. F16s seem to working in favor of Ukraine, but I wouldn’t be surprised if less international support is hurting the technological defenses in general for Ukraine

Omnipresent

(5,792 posts)
35. So now that we know this, should we know this?
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 08:12 PM
Dec 2023

The Ukrainian military might not have wanted this information out, so the Russians could calculate their next move.

The Magistrate

(95,291 posts)
46. The Enemy May Be Safely Presumed To Know What He's Doing
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 08:35 PM
Dec 2023

Journalists are the absolute last to know, and they know nothing but what some headquarters, or faction therein, wants them to.

Voltaire2

(13,489 posts)
52. The Ukraine war has transformed warfare.
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 09:05 PM
Dec 2023

We having entered the beginning of full scale robotic warfare. This is not a good development. Add ai to the mix. Swarms of lethal intelligent endpoints.

Also Russia, by not collapsing after their disastrous initial offensive, has slowly evolved the military capabilities and industrial infrastructure to gain at least a standoff, and has done so against some of our advanced weaponry intelligence and tactics.

Paradoxically their dismal battlefield stalemate has made them stronger militarily, while the sanctions have forced them to establish new capabilities and trading partners.

Emrys

(7,324 posts)
53. I always rely on the Telegraph for my military analysis
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 09:08 PM
Dec 2023

Yes, beyond that bland Yahoo! link in the OP, it's a Telegraph article (like the Daily Mail for people who like to think they understand semicolons). I'd point out it's written by Joe Barnes, the paper's Brussels Correspondent, not a military analyst, but that might make the OP sad, so I'll go no further with ad hominems and allow Joe the cover that he didn't write the headline.

Early on, the article seems to think that Russian EW countermeasures are something new in this war. They're not, they've just tended not to work very well, though there were excited stories in the summer in some of the more Russia-enthusiastic press about the number of Ukrainian drones the Russians were reportedly downing. A year ago, there were complaints from Russian troops that they'd managed to jam themselves into being unable to function in certain areas of the fronts.

There are plenty of videos on Twitter and elsewhere of Ukrainian FPV drones zeroing in on Russian tanks etc. with their EW antennae in plain sight, and more than a few smoking wrecks sporting the same equipment. Some of those smoking wrecks have been the major EW installations the article mentions.

Don't take my word for it, here's a real specialist defence journalist, David Axe, writing in Forbes about one aspect of the EW battle:

More And More Russian Vehicles Have Drone-Jammers. Ukrainian Drones Blow Them Up Anyway.

Russian industry developed the RP-377 jammer to interfere with enemy soldiers’ radio communications. As it happens, the jammer also works against radio-controlled first-person-view drones.

But only at very short range. And that helps to explain why Ukrainian drone-pilots have been blowing up Russian vehicles sporting RP-377s. A skilled operator can aim their drone at a vehicle, and count on the drone’s momentum to propel it to a successful strike even as its radio control link drops out in the final few seconds of its flight.
...
RP-377s have showed up on more and more Russian vehicles. But while Russian jamming is a growing problem for Ukraine’s drones, just as Ukrainian jamming is a growing problem for Russia’s drones, the RP-377s don’t appear to be the biggest contributor to this increasingly hostile electromagnetic environment.

Videos abound of Ukrainian drone-operators blowing up Russian vehicles wearing RP-377s in the jammers’ distinctive backpacks. In at least one case, a Ukrainian drone-operator struck an RP-377-equipped BMP fighting vehicle ... on its RP-377.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/12/22/more-and-more-russian-vehicles-have-drone-jammers-ukrainian-drones-blow-them-up-anyway/


As he points out, the developments in this field are not one-sided, as you'd expect - like all but the most unbalanced and primitive conflicts, there's always the thrust and parry of the arms race and asymmetrical warfare. The Russian EW systems are still not as reliable as the article would have you believe, though there's no doubt they've improved, and their deployment is patchy.

In their turn, the Ukrainians are obviously looking for solutions - one is to use Starshield (the military brand of Starlink) on drones, which the Russians will have more problems jamming, though the expense per unit probably means that will be restricted to key strategic strikes. Given their ingenuity, I wouldn't bet against them coming up with out-of-the-box countermeasures of their own. Who'd have thought of reinforced cardboard drones in warfare until an Australian company invented them and the Ukrainians successfully deployed them?

None of this denies that Ukraine is hard pressed and desperately needs continuing support, from its neighbours, the rest of Europe, allies in other parts of the world, and the US. The US economy has benefited significantly from the supplies sent to Ukraine so far and gotten a great many bangs per buck in containing the Russian forces (not least their navy). Maybe those Republican congresspeople usually so keen to guzzle from the pork barrel need to reminded of that on a daily basis.

As some of the action on the inland fronts has stalled, it's understandable that journalists are having to hunt out eye-catching angles on aspects of the conflict while they wait for something more spectacular to happen. It's now humdrum for Ukraine to intercept very high percentages of the missiles and drones targeting its population centres, in contrast to last year.

Apparently repeated Ukrainian strikes over the past few weeks on key installations in Crimea aren't clickworthy enough when so many are fixated on which side has gained a few hundred yards here or there every few weeks. Those Crimean strikes, more of them that will undoubtedly come in future, and the earlier attacks on Russian air defences that facilitated them are likely to prove much more significant in the long run.

John1956PA

(2,699 posts)
58. Ukraine's skilled drone opeators are using tradition vector targeting just before impact.
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 10:16 PM
Dec 2023

That is what I learned from the article which you cited. The Russian jamming works only at close range, according to the article. The Ukraine guidance system gets the drone into the ballpark, then the Ukraine drone operator lands it on the target.

Thanks for posting.

Emrys

(7,324 posts)
59. Yes, that's one aspect.
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 11:12 PM
Dec 2023

I didn't address the other major EW system the OP article mentioned, the truck-mounted Shipovnik-Aero, which is said to have a range of some 10 kilometres and does seem pretty effective, reputedly being able to take control of two drones simultaneously. But that's nowhere near a new system - it's been around since at least 2014. There were plenty of reports last summer about thousands of Ukrainian drones being downed, and Ukraine's war didn't end there and then.

But it's static in operation, hence vulnerable to attack by various means, and anyway taking control of a drone can bring its own hazards ...

Russian Troops Hi-Jack Ukrainian Drone, Land It, Get Blown Up While Taking Photos

Several members of a Russian air regiment and their security service colleagues have been reportedly killed whilst inspecting a Ukrainian kamikaze drone which they managed to hi-jack and land in an airfield in Kursk, Russia.

A source in Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) told Kyiv Post the UAV was successfully intercepted by using radio-electronic warfare techniques and safely landed on the runway of the Halino airfield.

The leadership of the regiment based there as well as members of the FSB then decided to investigate their new “trophy,” the source said.

Their excitement was short-lived, with the drone blowing up as they were photographing and inspecting it.

According to the source, those killed or wounded during the explosion included the commander of the 14th aviation regiment, one of his deputies, a group of aviator officers, a representative of FSB military counterintelligence, and airport personnel.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/21978


I'm not about to second-guess the Ukrainians' response to the Shipovnik-Aero, which they've been dealing with for some time, but that explosion seems to have been coincidental, and unlucky for the photographers and bigwigs. It should be possible to program a drone to detonate under certain circumstances if hijacked - on the basis of altitude, time elapsed, whatever. That might bring its own dangers, but unexploded ordnance already litters Ukraine's battlefields, so it would avoid adding more.

Let's also not forget that Ukraine has a strong alliance with the Turkish drone producer Bayraktar, to the extent of planning to go into joint production in Ukraine in years to come - I'd be surprised if this wasn't on Bayraktar's list of issues to overcome.

A vast amount has been written about this field, and I've only been able to dip into it myself, but here's one feasible-sounding counter to the Russian jamming and the doominess of the OP's headline (the article also goes into quite a lot of detail about initiatives on drone countermeasures in Ukraine):

[Fortem Technologies] Company Chief Operating Officer Tim Bean spoke with Inside Unmanned Systems just after returning from Ukraine, and made the case that relying entirely on electronic warfare methods to jam and hack drones was shortsighted as more serious operators, such as state militaries or well-funded terrorists, increasingly adopt autonomous drones with inertial navigation systems that can still perform without satellite navigation and command links. He also said GPS jamming and spoofing likely affect a drone shortly before it strikes its target, at which point a fast-moving drone is unlikely to change course much before impact.

https://insideunmannedsystems.com/adaptation-at-hyper-speed-the-deadly-drone-arms-race-in-ukraine/


Or this whole story could just be cover to lull the Russians into a false sense of security. (I think I'm joking there, but who knows nowadays?)

limbicnuminousity

(1,407 posts)
62. I've been impressed by how adaptive
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 11:24 PM
Dec 2023

the Ukrainian forces have been in responding to battlefield asymmetries.

Ligyron

(7,669 posts)
63. "likely affect a drone shortly before it strikes its target "
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 11:44 PM
Dec 2023

Does this cause the blackout in videos of drone attacks on Russian vehicles just before the vehicle is hit?

I thought it might be YouTube censorship but the blackout is way before any mayhem might be recorded.

Emrys

(7,324 posts)
66. I'd been wondering about this
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 11:53 PM
Dec 2023

Yes, on many FPV drone videos, the video starts to break up just before impact. I think it may be another cause - maybe proximity effect to the metal in the target disrupting communication, as I don't think all the vehicles in the videos I've seen would have had EW countermeasure setups, but I don't know for sure. I don't think it's YouTube censorship as I only watch the versions available on Twitter.

haele

(12,729 posts)
55. Well, you can bet NATO strategists are watching.
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 09:29 PM
Dec 2023

Ukraine has basically become a tabletop evaluation of Russian (and potentially their closer allies, China and Iran) weapons and tactics as they would be used against NATO.
Russia underestimated Ukrainian dislike of the Russian traditional governance, especially the endemic patronage or vassal hierarchy that developed during the 15th century that always ended up putting the outer regions of Russia (or the Soviet) under the control of the Muscavoy Russians for the benefit of Moscow, no matter where the "Big Man in Charge" originated from.

Haele

TheKentuckian

(25,038 posts)
61. Bigger picture it.
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 11:16 PM
Dec 2023

Winning is either pushing Putin out OR forcing him to keep spending blood and treasure.

Ukraine needs resources to at least keep on pushing and occupying focus.

It costs us a tiny fraction of our economy and most of it ends up in our own pockets one way or the other.

Double down.

The real problem is traitorous Republican white nationalist crime syndicate and theocratic domestic terrorist organization wrapped around Putin's fingers and Europe playing with catastrophe in there own backyards, probably worried about their NG supply and the cost of grain while counting on us to keep their fat out of the fire.

They have seen the horrible movie several times, I guess they like more than they let on.

Ligyron

(7,669 posts)
67. Your 5th sentence and paragraph is a masterpiece of well written truth.
Wed Dec 27, 2023, 11:56 PM
Dec 2023

It should be somehow splashed across the screens and consciousness of those most needing enlightenment in our heartland.

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