The Proud Boys are collapsing: Surprise! Legal consequences do hurt authoritarian movements

[kpete]

Despite fears that accountability will make MAGA more powerful, a new report shows it weakens the far-right
By AMANDA MARCOTTE
SALON


...............there's one big factor that cannot be overlooked that made 2023 very different from 2022: Proud Boys finally started going to prison for their role in January 6.

............

Data from The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) Project shows that while there was a gradual decline in Proud Boys activity in the first half of 2023, there was a preciptious drop-off in the mid-summer, dwindling to nearly nothing by the end of the year. This concides with the convictions and sentencing of Tarrio and other top Proud Boys. It's highly unlikely that's a coincidence. Instead, it suggests strongly that these high-profile punishments have successfully scared other Proud Boys into retreat.

To many people, this would seem an obvious outcome. Our prison system is supposed to work as deterrence, and certainly the prosecutors argued that's why they sought lengthy sentences that would garner a lot of attention. But there's also no end of pundits these days who are ready to warn that efforts to hold authoritarians to account will only backfire. They declare that the MAGA movement will only grow stronger if the legal system enforces the law as it is written.

...........

But legal consequences for Trump may not be a boost of confidence in the MAGA movement some believe. MAGA is a fascist movement that worships what they perceive as strength. To them, "strength" is evading consequences for bad actions. When their leaders are held to account, however, that is demoralizing and, crucially, demobilizing for the right.

The data on the Proud Boys, while incomplete, does a good job of showing how this works. Even while their leaders were under indictment, the Proud Boys could tell themselves a story about how they were a mighty force, able to commit crimes in broad daylight without paying the penalty for it. As soon as their leaders went to prison, however, their members beat a fast retreat. They may be yelling at each other on Telegram about all the liberals they want to "trigger," but they aren't as keen anymore on going out in public to start fights. Odds are high that something similar will happen if Trump's aura of invincibility is penetrated by serious consequences, like a criminal conviction. His supporters who currently worship him like a god will be reminded he's just a man — and a whiny one who smells like a butt, at that.

..............

the rest:
https://www.salon.com/2024/01/11/the-proud-boys-are-collapsing-surprise--legal-consequences-do-hurt-authoritarian-movements/

[TwilightZone]

1. Consequences changed the equation.

As soon as they started getting busted, most of the rest of them slunk off into the weeds, hoping desperately that civilians wouldn't ID them and inform the FBI.

That's partly why I think the civil war talk is ridiculous. There will be isolated incidents, but the belief that there will be a mass uprising on the scale of the CW has no basis in reality.

"His supporters who currently worship him like a god will be reminded he's just a man "

I think Marcotte (and many others) overestimates their ability to incorporate new information into their worldview. I suspect that many of them will *never* waiver on their support of Trump, regardless of what happens to him. They just won't be as willing to face consequences now that they understand the ramifications.

[rubbersole]

2. These assholes are now suspicious of each other being informants.

Good. Real or not, thinking big brother is watching your incel ass puts paranoia ahead of the 'belonging to a cause' warm and fuzzy feeling.

[Crowman2009]

5. Not to mention the Proud Boys do a lot of drugs behind closed doors.

Mainly the powdered variety.

[erronis]

3. The arrests have also removed the loudest mouths which provoked the rest

These types are using the threat of bad things to cause fear in the populace. It is magnified, of course, by the M$M but also people are irrational - they think that their lives might be in danger.

I'm sure there are textbooks and ideological pamphlets describing how to amplify your message so as to strike terror into the poor people.

[Ford_Prefect]

4. The RW militias remain a tangible and active threat as long as there is someone to focus their

Fear and anger. The Kochs and others who have found them useful in the past will continue to do so.

[Upthevibe]

6. Ford_Prefect........

I think the Koch brothers/family are off of tfg train. They've endorsed Nikki Haley...

[Ford_Prefect]

18. The Koch organization and other less well known RW outfits, including the GOP, have found them useful for over 40 years.

I see no reason to think they will discontinue that practice.

The individuals have a taste for fear, anger and conspiracy, regardless of their leadership or the paramilitary, para-Christian cult they espouse. The GOP and the Oligarchs (named and un-named) have used them to establish an extreme on the right of American culture and politics. Despite what the popular press and FOX will tell you, they are not a natural outgrowth of American culture. They have been carefully cultivated since before the Civil War and especially since the 1920s when they were the violet pets of Ford, Edison, and other wealthy men who used them to attack the American labor movement and the Civil Rights movement.

We can expect to hear more from them, if under new management. Trump did not invent them, nor will his fall eliminate them.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

20. E.g., Sinclair warps every tv station it takes over to spread RW messaging...

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/opinion-weiss-sinclair-television-propaganda_us_5ac2c6d4e4b09712fec38b95?ncid=engmodushpmg00000003

[Ligyron]

10. Yeah, but just who are they going to attack?

That’s what gets me, are they going to start a fight in Starbucks, or maybe at the Democratic headquarters.? You can be sure that those two groups and any others will be prepared for the eventuality and quite frankly I hope they do try it. In fact, it would be easy to set a trap for them, although in general, I don’t approve of those. Then it will be off to jail to join their brothers.

[Amishman]

13. and as long as the cultural wellspring that feeds them keeps flowing

and as someone in a red rural area, let me tell you that xenophobic militant pseudo-Christianity is still very popular

[ExWhoDoesntCare]

16. It's not pseudo

They build their beliefs on the same shaky foundation as every other christian sect.

And stop trying to distance yourself from them by making the rubbish claim that they're not-christian, when they are oh-so-typical of the torture cult.

Only liars and bigots think that not-christians have anything to do with making these people what they are.

[Roc2020]

7. Indeed

I have always thought the reason the government used the law to come crashing down on the proud boys is to let followers know if you try another January 6th, attack the government in other ways or attack because Trump said to, we will take away your freedom for a long time and have you regretting the day you set foot against the government. And I think on a scale of 1-10, it worked like a 9.

[CanonRay]

8. Think if Hitler had served 20 years instead of 2 for his coup attempt.

He would have gotten out of prison in 1943 or so, if he lived through it. Brown shirts? Broken and leaderless.

[Hekate]

12. I think you are right

[Emile]

9. Being a terrorist organization, I'm surprised they're allowed to operate

at all.

[Hekate]

11. Who could have imagined that prison for crimes would prove to be a deterrent?!

Book ‘em Dan-o

[mopinko]

14. hence the nearly complete lack of jugheads protesting at courthouses.

proof that j6 was anything but organic.

[gratuitous]

15. "If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine"

Yeah, no, Obiwan Enrique. Go to prison. For a long time. This isn't some sci-fi movie.

[LiberalFighter]

17. The pundits imo help make it possible for those types.

It seems those pundits want criminals to escape conviction.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

19. When driving, it's best to adjust your path before running into the ditch.

The J6 insurrection didn't spring forth fully-formed on January 6.

[Xolodno]

21. A lot of them had ridiculous notions that...

1. The National Guard, Military, etc. would join their ranks, when they didn't and even chased them out, it was a wake up call.

2. Thought law enforcement, FBI, Police, etc. would turn a blind eye...now they are getting arrested and sentenced and are hoping they don't get caught, or worse, one of their buddies rats them out for a reduced sentence.

That's the problem with echo chambers, you are just believing your own bullshit. And when reality smacks you on the head hard, then you spend a lot of time reflecting on what went wrong.

But pay no mind, they still hold their extreme beliefs. They'll eventually gravitate to another group.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

22. Great link! Worth the read.

[70sEraVet]

23. They also saw that their 'billionaire' messiah didnt fork over cash.....

to pay for any of their legal fees. When Der Furuer hangs his followers out to dry, the Brownshirts melt away.

[PortTack]

27. Add that to the realization that frump pardoning them won't happen either

[hatrack]

24. . . . .

[czarjak]

25. Whatcha Gonna Do When They Come For You?

And they should. NOBODY went to D.C. with good intentions. Proud Boy Deplorables

[summer_in_TX]

26. Now let the same thing happen to the Patriot Front.

I learned about a week ago that the current leader of the Patriot Front is from nearby. The SPLC named him as the recently installed leader. My county is the one that had the failure of law enforcement to aid the Biden-Harris bus that got swarmed by Trump flag-waving nuts. Not happy to hear it but it doesn't surprise me. In 2020, similar pickups paraded through staid neighborhoods in a nearby subdivision. Ugh.

[Demovictory9]

28. Kick

[rampartc]

29. "strngthy will be when trump47 pardons the lot

and hands out medals o0f freedom to tarrio and the other jerks.

like most gangs , jail is lke a recruiting office .