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MyNameIsJonas

(744 posts)
1. Both sides are reading too much into the results.
Wed Jan 17, 2024, 11:38 AM
Jan 2024

No, Trump "only" getting 51% doesn't mean he's cooked - just as him blowing out two other well-funded candidates out of the water means he scored some super impressive victory.

In reality, the truth is somewhere in the middle.

Trump is stronger than many on the left believe but also weaker than a lot on the right want to believe.

JohnSJ

(92,740 posts)
3. Sorry but the Iowa caucus doesn't really mean much. First, the caucus process is a discriminatory
Wed Jan 17, 2024, 12:05 PM
Jan 2024

process, excludes those who can not be present for whatever reason. Second, the caucus process is anti-Democratic. It is not private, and allows others to bully and push people to vote for one candidate or another. Third, Iowa, is not very representative of the country as a whole.

Iowa has never been a good predictor of who will be a party's nominee. Its record is about as good as the flip of a coin.

New Hampshire will be an interesting state, and because it is a primary and not a caucus, it is a far better measure of real attitudes toward the candidates. That being said, since NH is an OPEN primary process, that could also mislead, since cross-over votes may lead to confusing conclusions.

If Haley cannot win her own state, in my view trump will be the republican candidate.

The Democrats biggest challenge in the general election will be getting people out to vote.
The Genz and younger voter cannot be depended upon. The only way Democrats will win is if long-standing Democrats, women, minorities, and independents come out and vote. The left cannot be counted on, and with the same elements that contributed to trump's victory in 2016, are still there. Cornell West, Nina Turner, David Sirota, Brihana Joy Gray, etc.

 

MyNameIsJonas

(744 posts)
7. Polling before Iowa is irrelevant.
Wed Jan 17, 2024, 01:01 PM
Jan 2024

Since neither Haley and DeSantis came close to Trump, I expect both will lose steam heading into New Hampshire, especially Haley.

Trump will push 50%+ in NH just like he did in Iowa.

Suffolk in their latest poll has him at 50% there.

TwilightZone

(25,673 posts)
4. The argument that the largest margin of victory ever is somehow a loss is laughable.
Wed Jan 17, 2024, 12:07 PM
Jan 2024

Yet, that's what we on the left seem to have latched on to. His campaign is doomed, I tell ya.

He's up 50% nationally. This was basically over before it started. Ironically, we constantly complain about the media wanting a horse race, while we desperately try to twist and turn the GOP primary campaign into one.

Johnny2X2X

(19,651 posts)
2. Cold and ice
Wed Jan 17, 2024, 11:46 AM
Jan 2024

Think about this, 49% of GOP voters braved dangerous weather and road conditions to go vote for people not named Trump when they knew Trump was goiong to win regardless of their vote. These 49% were protesting Trump with their votes. A good portion of them won't vote for Trump.

Initech

(100,381 posts)
8. I'm so worried that Fox is up to something.
Wed Jan 17, 2024, 01:02 PM
Jan 2024

They're going to try and steal this election like they stole 2016 and 2000. They want the bloviating orange asshole back in power. We have to stop them at all costs. Rupert Murdoch is a terrorist and needs to be treated like such.

moondust

(20,095 posts)
11. Quiet competence
Wed Jan 17, 2024, 01:53 PM
Jan 2024

doesn't grab eyeballs to sell advertising or promise wildly irresponsible tax cuts to help billionaires become trillionaires who can then afford more advertising and bigger campaign donations.

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