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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsMyNameIsJonas
(744 posts)No, Trump "only" getting 51% doesn't mean he's cooked - just as him blowing out two other well-funded candidates out of the water means he scored some super impressive victory.
In reality, the truth is somewhere in the middle.
Trump is stronger than many on the left believe but also weaker than a lot on the right want to believe.
JohnSJ
(92,740 posts)process, excludes those who can not be present for whatever reason. Second, the caucus process is anti-Democratic. It is not private, and allows others to bully and push people to vote for one candidate or another. Third, Iowa, is not very representative of the country as a whole.
Iowa has never been a good predictor of who will be a party's nominee. Its record is about as good as the flip of a coin.
New Hampshire will be an interesting state, and because it is a primary and not a caucus, it is a far better measure of real attitudes toward the candidates. That being said, since NH is an OPEN primary process, that could also mislead, since cross-over votes may lead to confusing conclusions.
If Haley cannot win her own state, in my view trump will be the republican candidate.
The Democrats biggest challenge in the general election will be getting people out to vote.
The Genz and younger voter cannot be depended upon. The only way Democrats will win is if long-standing Democrats, women, minorities, and independents come out and vote. The left cannot be counted on, and with the same elements that contributed to trump's victory in 2016, are still there. Cornell West, Nina Turner, David Sirota, Brihana Joy Gray, etc.
MyNameIsJonas
(744 posts)JohnSJ
(92,740 posts)MyNameIsJonas
(744 posts)Since neither Haley and DeSantis came close to Trump, I expect both will lose steam heading into New Hampshire, especially Haley.
Trump will push 50%+ in NH just like he did in Iowa.
Suffolk in their latest poll has him at 50% there.
JohnSJ
(92,740 posts)TwilightZone
(25,673 posts)Yet, that's what we on the left seem to have latched on to. His campaign is doomed, I tell ya.
He's up 50% nationally. This was basically over before it started. Ironically, we constantly complain about the media wanting a horse race, while we desperately try to twist and turn the GOP primary campaign into one.
Johnny2X2X
(19,651 posts)Think about this, 49% of GOP voters braved dangerous weather and road conditions to go vote for people not named Trump when they knew Trump was goiong to win regardless of their vote. These 49% were protesting Trump with their votes. A good portion of them won't vote for Trump.
Initech
(100,381 posts)They're going to try and steal this election like they stole 2016 and 2000. They want the bloviating orange asshole back in power. We have to stop them at all costs. Rupert Murdoch is a terrorist and needs to be treated like such.
republianmushroom
(14,631 posts)moondust
(20,095 posts)doesn't grab eyeballs to sell advertising or promise wildly irresponsible tax cuts to help billionaires become trillionaires who can then afford more advertising and bigger campaign donations.