Federal Reserve staff estimates there is no chance for recession in the next 12 months but some forecasters

[Quixote1818]

think there is a good chance???

Who in the list below has the best track record? If we can avoid a recession before the election, Biden will almost for sure win.

Snip:

Probability of U.S. Recession
The probability of a U.S. recession in 2024 varies widely depending on the source and methodology. The Federal Reserve staff estimates that there is no chance of a recession in the next 12 months, while the yield curve model by the New York Fed suggests that there is a 61% chance of a recession in the same period. The yield curve model is based on the historical relationship between the spread between long-term and short-term Treasury yields and recessions. A negative or inverted yield curve, where short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, has preceded every U.S. recession since 1959.

Other sources have different estimates of the U.S. recession risk. A survey of economists by Wolters Kluwer shows that 48% of them expect a recession in 2024, while a survey of consumers by The Conference Board indicates that 69% of them think that a recession is likely in the next year. Among Wall Street firms, Goldman Sachs gives a 15% probability of a recession in 2024, while Bank of America assigns a 35-40% likelihood. Among CEOs, 84% of them are preparing for a recession in the next 12-18 months.

Link: https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/is-a-recession-coming-in-2024/

[LakeArenal]

1. Well, forecasts seem as reliable as polls.

Jobs reports and unemployment number vastly different than the forecasts.

[bucolic_frolic]

2. I follow economist David Rosenberg

He does predict recession. Stocks are overvalued in his view.

I think the soft landing is just too good to be true. I can't see how the Fed cuts interest rates with such low unemployment, high resource usage. We're not building new homes and they tell us it's interest rates, but is it? Materials prices are high. Four more months of job creation and the Fed will be raising, not lowering. And this Middle East is a powder keg, in two places. Plus Ukraine. Don't convince me there are no risks of recession, I won't believe you.

[Fiendish Thingy]

3. I bet a lot of those forecasts were made last year.

If all major variables remain unchanged, a recession seems unlikely.

Unfortunately, with two major wars and other destabilizing factors, there’s a lot that could change.

[Silent Type]

4. "No chance" in economics, seems a risky prediction. So far, Fed and Admin have

performed better than expected. But a few more air strikes or other shocks can change that quickly.

[Lemonwurst]

5. This may be different

We’ll only know after the fact, but a relatively slight delay in interest rate cuts could be enough to stave off a recession and simultaneously continue the healthy economy (market-wise) that we’re witnessing. There’s a somewhat unique combination of growing labor influence combined with tech advances that we probably haven’t seen before, and it doesn’t necessarily correlate with specific political influences. That said, only a “traditional” politician such as Joe could capitalize on this kind of economic opportunity, while Orange-Idiot Man nor any of his ilk could possibly do as well.