Maryland and Montana Senate polls

[Polybius]

Maryland
Hogan (R) 42, Trone (D) 42
Hogan 44 (R), Alsobrooks (D) 37
Link

Montana
Tester (D) 49, Sheehy (R) 40
Link

[DemocratInPa]

1. Yeah..

Hogan and Tester are both liked in their states.. No surprise really.

Is Hogan 100% running for Senate? If so, he is going to be hard to beat. Only good thing is, he might be a Romney/Collins/Murkowski type, a Republican who would side with Dems on a lot of stuff. Since he hates Trump and MAGA.

[Polybius]

3. Yes

He announced it last week.

[Baltimike]

4. As a Marylander, he is going to be hard to beat

and unfortunately, neither one of our front runners are colloquial super stars, like Hogan is.

His performance on 1-6, calling out MAGA will help him around here. But I'm voting blue, no matter who. This is Promise

[bigtree]

8. hogan has so much baggage, including his refusal to enact abortion protections in the state

...Hogan vetoed expanded access to abortion in Maryland as governor in last year of his term.

Says he opposes Maryland’s 2024 ballot measure to protect abortion access


Besides, he's said repeatedly that the Senate is beneath him.

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[Baltimike]

11. I hope it works, and had never seen the 'beneath him' stuff

so that's great...but he has name recognition and he's going to be hard to beat.

[bigtree]

12. It's only Md. that he has name recognition in, and he's a known quantity

...interesting, though, how he's running to be a junior senator in an obstructionist, slacker party.

I doubt the national reublican party will contribute any of Trump's money to help him, so he's literally on his own to draw enough Democrats to make up votes he's turned his back on from magonians.

No influx of outside funds from MAGA faithful to launch his run.

Trone has his liquor store money.

[Deep State Witch]

14. Dude's On the Sunday Morning Shows A Lot

The Sunday Morning shows love to interview Larry Hogan, so he does have a lot of name recognition.

He was associated with No Labels - until recently. There's also the small matter of his Chief of Staff being wanted by the FBI for bribery, running, and then killing himself. What did Hogan know about that?

Trone has been running hard for at least 6 months. Seeing ads for him everywhere. I have yet to see one ad for Angela Alsobrooks - and I live in PG County. It seems like Trone wants it more than she does. Love ya, Angie, but you need to step up your game. Besides, we've had some really high-profile crimes in PG lately that could really hurt her chances. She's done an admirable job as County Executive. But that's a pretty low bar, considering that one of her predecessors went to prison for soliciting bribes.

Marylanders, especially those in the DC and Baltimore suburbs, aren't stupid. As popular as Hogan was, they know that a vote for him is a vote for McConnell and MAGA.

[karynnj]

13. It may hinge on the fact that Hogan will caucus with his party

Although he had a much tougher opponent (Kerry), one issue that really hurt the popular governor Weld was when Kerry asked how he if would vote for majority leader. He further asked about that making Jesse Helms chair of foreign relations.

The parties are more polarized now and many would be chairs likely not popular in Maryland.

[appmanga]

15. Don't fool yourself...

...Hogan will vote with Republicans 98 percent of the time. Susan Collins, furrowed brow and all, was a reliable vote for the right-wing judges and Supreme Court justices we now have. He will be a vote against abortion rights. The worse thing that can happen id Marylanders are fooled into thinking a Republican legislator will act with the same kind of reason and independence as Republican executive in an overly Democratic state.

[Carlitos Brigante]

16. What are the lots of things that Collins and Romney have sided with

Democrats on? I mean votes, not the talking about "how concerned they are" part. Come to think of it, Murkowski is the least revolting one out of the bunch. But not exactly a stellar track record in voting with Democrats either.

[tritsofme]

2. I think we will be able to beat Hogan in the end, but it will be a much more expensive race than otherwise.

It’s great to see Tester in a strong spot, I still think this will be the marquee Senate race that will determine the majority in the Senate.

[DemocratInPa]

6. I don't see Hogan as being very beatable..

He was pretty popular as Governor..

[tritsofme]

9. Blue state voters are much more likely to send a Republican to the governor's mansion

than to represent them at the federal level.

There are few if any groups in politics less popular than Washington Republicans, tying him to them should drag him down.

It is going to be very difficult to retain our majority this cycle, this race is a must-win.

[Orangepeel]

10. he also ran in nonpresidential years, when turnout was lower

this race in in a presidential year when more people vote. More people voting is good for Democrats

[Sky Jewels]

19. If abortion is tied around his neck like a dead albatross

he can be beaten.

[Polybius]

17. I agree

We can win, but we'll have to spend more money than planned, perhaps a lot more. And what do we even say in the ads? We can't tie him to MAGA, he hates Trump.

[tritsofme]

18. Washington Republicans are toxic. That's what will drag him down.

[EarlG]

5. I think Hogan will be weaker than expected

A few reasons:

1) Maryland is a very blue state. Like Massachusetts, it occasionally flirts with centrist Republican governors, hence Hogan's prior success. However, it's going to be much more difficult for Hogan to make the case for a Senate seat when his Democratic opponent will be blasting him non-stop with, "A vote for Hogan is a vote for a Mitch McConnell-controlled Senate." Especially with major national issues like abortion on the table. Hogan is a moderate, but he can still easily be tied to Republican control of the Senate, which Marylanders don't want.

2) Hogan already torched his GOP base. He's one of the most outspoken anti-Trump Republicans out there, and yes there are still Trump Republicans in Maryland. If the MAGA base isn't enthusiastic for Hogan, he'll have to convert even more indies and Democrats
-- which, again, will be difficult with control of the Senate at stake.

3) It will make the race more expensive, that's for sure. However, assuming Trone gets the nod, he's one of the richest people in Congress, and won't have any trouble self-financing. He will have a lot of cash to throw at Hogan.

Hogan will be tougher to beat than some random MAGA loony, but I still think it's an uphill climb for him.

[crazylikafox]

7. Also, Maryland governors are elected in non-presidential years

Turnout is much lower in those years. If the base turns out we win.

[Polybius]

20. I think he loses too

But I think he'll do better than any MAGA would there.

[yellowcanine]

21. Hogan is popular but it is Maryland in a presidential election year.

I think that plus the fact that hard core Trumpers have no love for Hogan but to Maryland Dems Hogan is still a Republican and Trump is going to get pounded in Maryland in 2024. Also Maryland voters are very aware of the dynamics of the Senate and the need for a Dem Senate. Trone does lack name recognition but he will be able to overcome some of that by spending a lot of money. Maryland Dems cannot take this race for granted, however.