78

[Stinky The Clown]

That is the number of murders, to date, in Washington, DC. Washington, DC, many will recall, was once the Murder Capital Of The United States.

It is now on track to have fewer than 100 murders in a year for the first time since 1963. In the not too distant past, the rate approached 500 in several years.

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/11/23/15391905-washington-dc-set-to-post-fewer-than-100-murders-this-year-a-first-since-1963?lite

[alfredo]

1. That's a good trend.

I lived in Detroit when the number hit 800.

[RB TexLa]

2. New Orleans is down to 165 this year. Lowering the population helped lower it

[NoMoreWarNow]

3. very cool!

the Obama effect? Or what?

[reACTIONary]

4. Not likely... This is a long term trend...

Last edited Sat Nov 24, 2012, 12:46 AM - Edit history (2)

... I don't have the numbers close to hand, but crime in general, and violent crime have been on a downward trend for a long, long time.

Explanations vary, and of course anyone who has a pet theory wants to take credit, but the most interesting theory I have heard is that it is due to the control of environmental lead.

Lead poisoning has some pretty well understood developmental effects that increase impulsivity, reactivity and other traits that strongly correlate with criminal behavior. Epidemiological studies have found a strong correlation between decreasing environmental lead and decreasing crime rate.

Here is an article about this explanation:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/07/AR2007070701073.html

Some epidemiological research:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/05/080527201839.htm

[Jackpine Radical]

6. Lead paint in crumbling inner-city homes…

Yeah, it makes sense.

[obxhead]

7. I'm interested.....

Have any links for this?

I ask because as a NOVA (Northern VA) resident and worker for 25 years I follow local DC politics etc closely. I have heard many programs over the last 2 decades on lead everywhere in DC and how hard they are working to remove it.

Not asking for links to prove your assertion, just to actually help prove it.

"You must have ate paint chips as a kid" became a saying for a reason after all.

[reACTIONary]

10. Here is a good summary...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/07/AR2007070701073.html

At first I searched through the book Freakonomics, because that's where I thought I had read this. But Freakonomics focuses on legalized abortion, and this researcher disputes that explanation:

"It is startling how much mileage has been given to the theory that abortion in the early 1970s was responsible for the decline in crime" in the 1990s, Nevin said. "But they legalized abortion in Britain, and the violent crime in Britain soared in the 1990s. The difference is our gasoline lead levels peaked in the early '70s and started falling in the late '70s, and fell very sharply through the early 1980s and was virtually eliminated by 1986 or '87.

[NoMoreWarNow]

16. wow-- very interesting!

[lumberjack_jeff]

12. My bet is on porn and video games. n/t

[reACTIONary]

13. Not at all unlikely. n/t

[obxhead]

5. From the less informed....

They also legalized gun ownership...... I think.

Correlation? I really doubt it, but I'm betting the gun nuts come out soon.

My bet is the real cause is we're all fucking broke, so it's easier to work a few hours at McD's then kill someone for whatever is in their wallet.

[Liberal_in_LA]

9. Thanks for posting good news - the reduction in murders in DC

[bhikkhu]

11. Violent crime is on a serious downturn, everywhere

Perhaps most convincingly in US cities, as the data has been tracked pretty reliably for a long time. But worldwide all kinds of violence is declining as well - an overall "civilizing" effect.

[Posteritatis]

14. But - but - but - all crime everywhere has done nothing but increase!

At least that's what everyone who doesn't actually look at the statistics keeps telling me...

[tavalon]

15. That's great. Why do you think that is?