Idaho GOP shoots itself in foot: 2024 GOP caucus turnout lower than 2012 GOP caucus

[jmowreader]

(This is an Idaho Capital Sun piece - the Capital Sun is sort of a media watchdog on the state government - that we picked up.)

https://cdapress.com/news/2024/mar/06/about-93-of-idahos-registered-republicans-didnt-vote-in-gop-presidential-caucus/

The overwhelming majority of Idaho’s registered Republican voters did not participate in Saturday’s Republican Presidential Caucus. And despite Idaho’s status as one of the fastest growing states in the country over the past 10 years, fewer Idaho Republicans voted in Saturday’s GOP caucus than voted in the 2012 GOP caucus.

The Idaho Capital Sun calculated turnout for Saturday’s Idaho Republican Presidential Caucus at about 6.8% using publicly available data posted by the Idaho Republican Party and Idaho Secretary of State’s Office.

Caucus results released Saturday by the Idaho Republican Party shows that 39,584 votes were cast in the caucus, which was only open to registered Republican voters who met the party’s Dec. 31 affiliation deadline. Data from the new Vote Idaho website shows there are 579,723 registered Republicans in Idaho.

The Spokane Spokesman-Review reports that 44,672 Republicans participated in the 2012 caucus. (Two things are interesting here: in 2012 we had a lot fewer Republicans in the state than we do now, and Mitt Romney - the Republican candidate that year - was about as much fun as a balloon with a hole in it.) The Idaho Secretary of State reports 118,958 Republicans participated in the 2020 GOP presidential primary, when Trump was running for reelection.

Dr. David Adler, who is a reliable political analyst, believes the problem is that since Trump's ascension to the general election is a foregone conclusion there wasn't a huge amount of interest in going to the caucuses.

I have a different theory.

Problem 1 is how the GOP ran its caucus. Only in-person same-day voting was allowed, and only among people who were registered with the party on or before December 31, 2023. If you were a rabid conservative who decided in February you'd change your registration from Unaffiliated to Republican so you could vote to support Trump, you couldn't vote in this caucus. In-person voting excludes two massive sources of GOP support in Idaho: military members stationed outside the State of Idaho, and religious missionaries. You also couldn't vote if you were unable to make it to the polls for any other reason. (By comparison, the Idaho Democratic Caucus, which happens in May, will accept votes from absentee voters, unaffiliated voters and pissed-off Republicans.)

Problem 2 is that no one actually likes caucuses. Even Republicans who gleefully caucused, when asked, admitted they'd rather have had a primary.

The biggest problem is who they're running. Idaho is the second-most-Mormon place on the face of the earth. Members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints didn't like Trump when he was just bragging about being able to grab women's private parts, they especially didn't like it when Trump started stacking indictments like a good Idahoan stacks cordwood, and they weren't real pleased about being told their only real option in this election was to vote to support that hideous man. So...they stayed home and watched college basketball on TV instead. I live in the most conservative county in America and the massive outpouring of support for Trump - like, long parades of pickup trucks flying Trump flags - has ended, and did quite a while ago. The guy who used to sell Trump flags out of a van down by the Candlelight Christian Fellowship megachurch on US 95 is now selling Jesus and pro-Second Amendment flags. They still hate Biden; the number of "Let's Go Brandon #FJB" and "Liberalism is a Mental Disease" bumper stickers you see here is astounding. However, just because they don't like Democrats doesn't mean they like Trump.

I know Trump is going to win Idaho in November if he isn't washing dishes in a prison kitchen by then. But I suspect the turnout is going to be incredibly low, and that's a problem for the GOP: if you don't go to the polls because you can't stand the thought of casting a vote for Donald Trump, you won't be voting in downticket races.

[OAITW r.2.0]

1. Makes you wonder. Just how deep Trump's strength is within the Party.

[brooklynite]

2. What's the relevance?

2012 was a competitive Primary and there would likely be more engaged Caucus participants.