Iran's inability or unwillingness to retaliate in a serious way

[Enquiring_Mind]

Very little damage has been done on the ground in Israel. Did Iran not use more effective weaponry to lessen the chance of a counter attack and further escalation? Or are they not capable of a more effective strike?

In either case it seems Iran is less of a threat to Israel many thought.

[Omnipresent]

1. I guess it's more of a tickle fight.

Israel is laughing it off?

[marble falls]

2. It's an interesting thought: "It was rash in the decision, I'll do a symbolic missile attack" ...

... or "I'll just toss a deflection attack, wait until the US packs up and goes home and then I'll lay the mother of all attacks on Israel."

It's about time for a serious middle east peace initiative.

[underpants]

3. I don't think they cared if it worked

They just want to poke Israel into escalating it. I’m sure Putin fully supported it so as to put Biden in a tough spot and hopefully affect our election.

[Enquiring_Mind]

6. To be clear, Israel started this with the consulate bombing

My guess is Netanyahu is trying to create a distraction from Gaza.

[underpants]

9. Oh I know. Not exactly a winning strategy

Distraction by picking another fight and beginning a proxy war. I don’t think that even a ceasefire in Gaza is going to quell or quiet this.

[mcar]

12. To be clear, Iran funds and trains Hamas terrorists

Remember, the guys who gang raped, tortured, murdered and kidnapped on Oct. 7? Those guys?

If we're looking at current events, that's what "started" it.

[Nixie]

14. Didn't Iran poke first by having Hezbollah aim missiles

at Israel? With Hamas being busy rejecting cease fire conditions, Iran is turning to Hezbollah. It looks like Israel knows who is aiming missiles at them and who funds them.

[SARose]

11. This

Underpants - you win the 🏆👏

[pwb]

4. I don't see it that way.

People of Israel were in their basements and shelters for a long time. The damage was done to the body and soul, of families having to do that. Iran made their point IMO.

[Voltaire2]

5. Indeed. Despite all the noise, this was a minimal

response. For example the Hamas missile barrage was much larger. To get through current anti missile defenses you have to overwhelm them or use hypersonic devices that Iran likely doesn’t have. Essentially this was a performance. They had to respond for political reasons.

[womanofthehills]

15. Iran HAS hypersonic missiles

Probably waiting to see if Israel attacks to justify using them.

“Iran has a new hypersonic missile. Here’s what that means for the Middle East”

“The missile is called Fattah, apparently named after one of the 99 names of God in Islam meaning “victory giver.” It was unveiled this week as a historic achievement for the country’s military.

The hypersonic projectile has the ability to “penetrate all air defense missile systems and detonate them,” Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRCG) Aerospace Force Commander Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh said in comments published by the semi-official Tasnim news agency.’

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/09/middleeast/iran-new-hypersonic-missile-mime-intl/index.html

[dutch777]

7. They had to answer Israel's attack on the consulate as a hit on sovereign territory but...

...they also don't want to get in a major direct conflagration with Israel and probably the US. So this was a measured way to respond without hopefully pushing things out of control. If Israel is smart they will call it a win as they had very little damage. Not sure Bibi and the right wingers will let it end there though. Don't know how many missiles, etc. Iran can fire at one time, but if they could unleash 1,000 or more simultaneously, it could present more targets than IDF air defense system can stop. If Hezbollah joins in, could really bad for Israel.

[Zipgun]

8. This was serious, they didn't want a war, but they did want to signal their displeasure and ability to mount a response.

This was very costly for Israel, the US and England. I bet the missiles used in the defense cost a lot more than the drones and missiles used in the attack. Does this deserve a response from Israel? Yes. Does it deserve an escalation? No, and this is the danger. The US will be there to help defend Israel from further attacks. But I don't want us dragged into a war.

Israel needs to look at a response OUTSIDE of Iranian soil. And something proportional. Take out some Iranian proxies. Especially ones active against Israel now. Something of that nature. A proportional response that does not demand a response in return.

[Enquiring_Mind]

17. I heard cost mentioned this morning

and that makes sense. If you have to send an interceptor every time one of these relatively cheap threats comes along, it adds up.

[womanofthehills]

19. Drones can cost $400 to $6,000 each

Each Iron Dome missile costs around $50,000/$60,000.

Each battery holds 60 to 80 interceptor missiles - around 4 million of missiles.

Roster of Iran’s drones:

https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2024/feb/02/roster-iran%E2%80%99s-drones

[doc03]

10. They are afraid to take on Israel or the USA in any serious way, that

was only for domestic consumption.

[EX500rider]

13. Not sure the US would consider 110 ballistic missiles fired at us as a not serious attack

[WarGamer]

21. moped drones included?

[EX500rider]

25. The attack included 170 drones and 30 cruise missiles and 110 ballistic missiles.

By all measures a serious attack and escalation.

[DFW]

16. Iran remains a serious threat to Israel

What we saw here was not an inability to retaliate massively, but rather an unwillingness to retaliate massively. Even in Iran, it would appear, cooler heads can prevail when the situation calls for it.

If I were more of a competent conspiracy theory fan, I might even suspect that there were communications along some very discreet back channels in Jerusalem, Washington and Tehran about how NOT to let this escalate beyond everyone’s control—communications in which, needless to say, the Kremlin was not involved.

[Enquiring_Mind]

18. Back channel communications were very possible

I don't put that in the conspiracy category at all.

[womanofthehills]

22. Does Israel have endless interceptor missiles?

Does the US make all the Iron Dome interceptor missiles? At around $60,000 a missile- do we both sell snd give them to Israel?

[WarGamer]

20. unwillingness, not inability.

They don't desire further escalation at this time.

[ForgedCrank]

23. Some underestimate

just how ineffective the Iranian military really is.
This volley was an attempt to overwhelm the Israeli air defense systems, something that had some success in the recent past.
I'm not so sure this was on purpose at all.

[BannonsLiver]

24. Reading some the threads today

It seems like we have some folks who are disappointed the Iranian attack wasn’t more effective. Enemy of my enemy stuff.

[Frasier Balzov]

28. Poisoning the blood of the Democratic Party.

Not unlike the Republican Party with their MAGA problem.

[LeftInTX]

26. What if one of the US neighbors 1,000 miles away decided to launch a similar attack?

Would we be as successful intercepting missiles?

This was a fairly serious attack. In the international community, Iran is considered to be a pariah. They already have sanctions against them.

Iran has been wanting to attack Israel, but they also have to worry about international law and more sanctions. The attack on the consulate gave Iran the green light. But they also were careful not inflict more damage on Israel than Israel had on their consulate.

If Iran had sent a huge payload, and inflicted huge amounts of damage, they would need to answer to the international community. This way it becomes tit-for-tat.

[Tetrachloride]

27. Inability isn't the word I would choose