If Trump guilty in NY trial: Biden 46% (+5) Trump 41% in GE

[flamingdem]

Link to tweet

Political Polls
@Politics_Polls
2024 National GE:

If it turns out that Donald Trump is found guilty in his New York trial:

Biden 46% (+5)
Trump 41%
.
If it turns out that Donald Trump is found not guilty in his New York trial:

Trump 46% (+3)
Biden 43%

.@MULawPoll
, 684 LV, 5/6-15

[SleeplessinSoCal]

1. I heard discussed that the jury only need vote majority to be guilty.

The many counts being decided mostly only require majority voting guilty, and not unanimous.

Good news to me.

[no_hypocrisy]

4. Beg to differ

This is a criminal trial. To convict on a guilty verdict, 100% of the jury must find beyond a reasonable doubt that TSF committed all the acts alleged. If it's a "majority vote," then it's a hung jury.

[SleeplessinSoCal]

8. I wish I could recall the source.

I was driving in my car. I think it was on Ari Melber that i hear through Bluetooth. It had to do with the various counts in the case. It was an answer to a question about unanimous vs majority votes in the various counts.

[tavernier]

9. Yes, I think it was Andrew Weissmann

I heard him explain that as well

[SleeplessinSoCal]

13. Thanks. I thought maybe I dreamt it.

Makes sense. We hear verdicts read aloud on various counts. Is there one overriding indictment or several?

[tavernier]

14. The jury has to decide if he is guilty of any of the 34 counts

of falsifying business records. Based on this they decide on whether to convict or acquit. This verdict has to be unanimous.

[budkin]

11. I don't think that's true. Source?

Would be great but I think it's either unanimous or it's a hung jury.

[mnmoderatedem]

2. Still only a 5 point difference even if convicted

WTF is wrong with people?

trump could still win even with that difference depending on swing states

[LenaBaby61]

5. You believe these polls?

[Tribetime]

10. Unfortunately age is a factor nothing can be done

About with some independents

[Emile]

3. and Nikki Haley says she will vote for Trump.

Never underestimate the power of the magic R with stupid people.

[Bob0264]

6. Forget polls. American elections are determined by the big picture of presidential performance. The 13 keys.

Polls one way or the other, especially now, don't mean anything. Forget them. Allan Lichtman's 13 Keys to the White House determine
presidential elections because they gauge the BIG PICTURE of overall presidential performance. Presidential elections are unique and they are essentially referendums on the performance of the incumbent party currently holding the White House. (If you are not familar with this system, just Google Allan Lichtman's 13 Keys to the White House.).

Now, here is the caveat as to a Trump conviction per professor Lichtman who has correctly predicted every presidential election with this system since 1980. Because such a conviction is historically unprecedented, it COULD, it this rare instance, have an effect on the existing keys AGAINST Trump. But, we shall see.

[everyonematters]

7. I think this election is different.

Normally in a presidential election you have an incumbent and a challenger that the voters need to learn about. In this case, both of the presumed nominees have already served in office. This hasn't happened since 1892 involving Cleveland and Harrison. The voters have a solidified opinion of both candidates. The polls have moved very little since the beginning of the primaries. The indictments of Trump have had very little impact; convictions might not either. This election might already be locking in. This might even be a new trend because it seemed to lock in earlier four years ago. This might be the reason that Biden has pushed for an early debate.

[Bob0264]

12. Respectfully, here are the flaws in your analysis.

There have been many elections where the candidates were very known quantities. The Keys are retrospective to 1860. In more recent history we can look to the second Ike/Stevenson campaign; Nixon/Humphrey; Reagan/Mondale, ...
It is a referendum on presidential performance and the extent to which the electorate wants a change from the status quo. The electorate tends to want to stay with the incumbent unless there are enough big-picture reasons to make them want a change.

The fact is that most people, believe it or not, are not focused on the presidential race right now, so polls mean diddly squat. And they mean little enough anyway. And they are often very flawed as we have seen. i.e. Dems have overperformed bigtime in the large majority of state and national office special elections over the last few years including the 2022 midterms. Forget the polls.

The only real historical anomaly here that could be in play is if Trump is convicted. That is what is truly unprecedented. There has never been a criminally convicted challenger and that could shake the Keys which currently don't account for such a scenario.

[everyonematters]

15. How many focus groups have you participated in?

I haven't been in any either., but I know what I am seeing. It's not like the old days when people got all their news from the five pm news. You have 24 hour cable news and social media. It's almost impossible not to hear about the election. I'll tell you what. Go down your street, knock on doors and try to find ten people who don't have an opinion of Donald Trump. He is the challenger. The elections you stated did not include ones where both candidates had already been president.