Is Europe too big for further enlargement?

[Celerity]

EU institutions are struggling to chart a vision for 27 member states, so how can they accommodate as many as 36?

https://www.socialeurope.eu/is-europe-too-big-for-further-enlargement



Earlier this month, the European Union celebrated the 20th anniversary of its biggest-ever enlargement, which brought ten new members into the bloc. That event remains a potent reminder of the EU’s potential to advance peace and unity across the continent. But, at a time of deep internal divisions and an increasingly volatile external environment, the giddy idealism of 2004 seems a distant dream and the prospects of further enlargement appear uncertain. The promise of EU accession has long been considered a powerful mechanism for strengthening stability, democracy and prosperity across the continent. The addition of Portugal and Spain in the 1980s—after democratic transitions in both countries—exemplified this dynamic.

But by 2004, when eight post-communist countries (and Malta and Cyprus) joined, not to mention the 2007 accession of Bulgaria and Romania, the logic of enlargement had shifted. Expanding the single market and fortifying the foundations of democracy across Europe were still critical objectives. But by welcoming central- and eastern-European countries into the European ‘family,’ the EU was also demonstrating that it had overcome its past of war and division. The new members, for their part, welcomed the chance to escape centuries of limbo between Russia and the west, even though Russia no longer seemed to pose much of a threat to its neighbours, at least in the eyes of the union.

Democratic backsliding

Today, with a war raging on Europe’s doorstep, there is no question that Russia is dangerous. Just four days after the full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine applied for EU membership. Driven by a sense of moral responsibility, rather than genuine enthusiasm for further enlargement, the bloc quickly granted it candidate status. There are now nine recognised candidates for membership, mainly in eastern Europe. But, while the 2004 ‘big bang’ was a success, it cannot serve as a model for future enlargement. Each accession brings its own challenges, which demand nuanced solutions. One key challenge today—which has undermined the old enlargement narrative—is democratic backsliding in some member countries.

Most notably, Hungary has clashed repeatedly with the EU over the anti-democratic policies pursued by its prime minister, Viktor Orbán, since he returned to power in 2010. In Poland, an Orbán-emulating right-wing government was replaced last year by a three-party coalition committed to shoring up democracy but tensions persist. Slovakia’s populist-nationalist prime minister, Robert Fico, was recently the target of an assassination attempt. This trend has undermined EU-level decision-making, with national interests often trumping the will of the majority. For example, Orbán repeatedly blocked EU support for Ukraine and has cultivated closer trade and investment ties with China, at a time when other EU members are seeking to reduce their dependence on the Chinese market. Budapest was one of only three stops the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, made on his recent trip to Europe, when he and Orbán announced that their countries would form an ‘all-weather partnership’.

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