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markpkessinger

(8,514 posts)
Sat Jul 20, 2024, 08:31 PM Jul 20

Posted on Facebook today regarding Biden

Last edited Sun Jul 21, 2024, 01:10 PM - Edit history (1)

I posted this today on Facebook:

I have heard the arguments and I've seen the polls, and still I remain convinced that forcing Joe to step aside amounts to sheer madness. I will attempt to lay out here as carefully as I can why I think that is the case.

First, let me say that all Democrats, as well as many independent / unaffiliated voters, want and feel an urgent need to defeat Trump. But I think a lot of people are desperate for a kind of certainty about the outcome in November that is simply unavailable -- to anyone. No option, no path, is perfect, and none has any guarantee of success. Each possible path has its own set of benefits as well as risks/downsides, none of which can be quantified with any degree of certainty. Is that scary? Of course it is, but such is the world we are living in at the moment.

What's more, I think that those who are trying to push Joe off the ticket have not thoroughly considered all of the benefits that come with keeping him on the ticket, and at the same time are not being honest with either themselves or the rest of us about either the downside risks or, in some cases, the practical, legal realities involved in forcing him out. So let's take a look at some of these, shall we?

The most common argument made by those advocating for a change in the ticket is this: "If Joe's the nominee, we will lose in November." And they make this argument with a degree of certainty that I don't think they have any intellectual right to assert. NO ONE knows what is going to happen in November, irrespective of whom the Democrats nominate. Yes, I know: "but the polls." But polls have often not been good predictors of political outcomes. (I would think that we would have learned that lesson in 2016, but I digress.) So I am simply not persuaded by the argument that keeping Joe as the nominee necessarily means Democrats will lose in November.
Most of the national polls I've seen continue to indicate that the race is still a dead heat, and that Trump really didn't benefit all that much from Joe's poor debate performance. What definitely has helped Trump and hurt Biden is the ongoing debate over casting Joe aside, so to those who are arguing in favor of ditching Joe, I say congratulations -- you have managed to make what was always going to be a difficult fight that much harder. I hope you're proud of yourselves.

Casting Joe to the curb means forfeiting the significant advantage of incumbency, in a race in which it is critically important to preserve every advantage we have. Depending on who the replacement nominee is, it could also mean forfeiting the roughly $100 million war chest his campaign has amassed. The only way that war chest can be preserved is if Kamala remains on the ticket, because campaign finance laws prohibit it from being simply transfered to another nominee who wasn't on the original ticket, and the Biden-Harris campaign would be permitted to contribute only $2,000 to a new nominee's campaign.

"Great," you say, "so make Kamala the nominee." Well, not so fast, bucko. The thing is, many of the same wealthy donors who are calling on Joe to step aside are opposed to Kamala becoming the nominee. So, can those wealthy donors be relied upon to ante up to make up for what was forfeited?

And in any case, nominating Kamala would be making the same mistake Democrats made in 2016 against the same opponent: choosing a candidate based on her wide popularity within the party while ignoring the fact that she is widely disliked outside of it. And what we can never afford to forget is that Democrats cannot win national elections with the votes of Democrats only!

"So, have an open convention," you respond. But not making Kamala the nominee also carries with it another potential problem, namely that of alienating a hugely important Democratic constituency, namely Black women. In addition, there are timing issues with respect to ballot access in certain states. For example, the state of Ohio has a law that requires the party to submit a nominee's name for printing on its ballots two days PRIOR to the start of the Democratic convention. Yes, there is a provision in the law that would allow the state legislature to change that deadline, but even if the Ohio legislature -- which is overwhelmingly controlled by Republicans -- were to pass such a change, it cannot go into effect for 60-00 days after the change was passed, and that puts us in a legal gray zone. What's more, Speaker Mike Johnson has already said that Republicans are preparing legal challenges to any effort by Democrats to change the name of the nominee on the ballot. Such legal challenges raise exponentially the prospect that the election will be decided by the Supreme Court rather than by the electorate!

I believe Biden is capable of getting past the bad debate performance IF party donors and bigwigs give him half a chance. Abandoning a candidate with such a strong record of achievement, and one who has a deep knowledge of how legislation is crafted and negotiated -- a critical skill in these closely divided times -- at a time when there is no consensus on whom should be the replacement nominee and with so little time remaining before the election is, I believe, utter insanity!

This decision is being driven by panic. And rarely do decisions made in the midst of panic pan out well!

31 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Posted on Facebook today regarding Biden (Original Post) markpkessinger Jul 20 OP
Excellent! Thanks for this! Ocelot II Jul 20 #1
I don't believe it's panic ibegurpard Jul 20 #2
This message was self-deleted by its author a kennedy Jul 20 #5
Bastards, all of them. EAT THE RICH I say. a kennedy Jul 20 #6
Second line to that sueroseus Jul 20 #9
It's AI generated panic. dchill Jul 20 #10
I'm a lifelong Democrat who voted for Biden in the primary Martin Eden Jul 21 #22
I'm with you mia Jul 21 #25
A Trump presidency will hurt your friends, and pretty much everyone Martin Eden Jul 21 #26
I'm right there with you. lees1975 Jul 20 #12
If they're not Democrats and/or want Trump to win Martin Eden Jul 21 #23
Perhaps not, but... radical noodle Jul 21 #28
Excellent! liberalmuse Jul 20 #3
My head is spinning 😯 I'm Tickle Jul 20 #4
Republicans have zero legal basis to challenge how Democrats choose their candidate. n/t Ms. Toad Jul 22 #31
Who, not whom. BWdem4life Jul 20 #7
100% my feeling LymphocyteLover Jul 20 #8
Thx so much for posting...I've never, and I mean never used fb...but the person that wrote this so spot on PortTack Jul 20 #11
Thanks . . . markpkessinger Jul 21 #29
It's like a stampede over the cliff kingvitamin Jul 20 #13
Post removed Post removed Jul 20 #14
A lot of these wealthy guys are making money making bets on the outcome of the election. summer_in_TX Jul 20 #15
For Dems to have gone to the media asking him to step aside was insane Jarqui Jul 20 #16
The Results of the Last Boloxed Dem Convention DDySiegs Jul 20 #17
If you're against President Biden dai13sy Jul 21 #18
So then, Adam Schiff and a host of other elected Democrats Martin Eden Jul 21 #24
Differing view EQuerulousUnum Jul 21 #19
I'm reccing this post and the OP as well Martin Eden Jul 21 #20
"They need inspiring." TwilightZone Jul 21 #21
Agree, but this is reality EQuerulousUnum Jul 22 #30
Thank you for this. Joinfortmill Jul 21 #27

Ocelot II

(119,204 posts)
1. Excellent! Thanks for this!
Sat Jul 20, 2024, 08:35 PM
Jul 20

Now please send it directly to the Vichy Democrats and the donors and the techbros who are trying to get Biden off the ballot.

ibegurpard

(16,806 posts)
2. I don't believe it's panic
Sat Jul 20, 2024, 08:36 PM
Jul 20

I believe it's extremely wealthy people who don't want to be taxed and regulated twisting the arms of elected Democrats.

Response to ibegurpard (Reply #2)

a kennedy

(31,377 posts)
6. Bastards, all of them. EAT THE RICH I say.
Sat Jul 20, 2024, 08:47 PM
Jul 20

I have a pin that says that, and I accompany it with a knife and fork crossed pin to go along with it.

Martin Eden

(13,216 posts)
22. I'm a lifelong Democrat who voted for Biden in the primary
Sun Jul 21, 2024, 08:33 AM
Jul 21

I felt panic after I watched the debate.

Until then, I was confident Joe would win.

mia

(8,414 posts)
25. I'm with you
Sun Jul 21, 2024, 09:04 AM
Jul 21

... and every Democrat I know personally feels the same way. While President Biden has done a much better at public speaking since the debate, and I believe he can continue to do so, the memory of his debate performance is seared into the memories of many. Some say they aren't going to vote at all or if they do, will leave the choice for president blank. That's what I'm hearing among friends, neighbors, and family members. I wish this weren't so and I'm trying to convince them otherwise. I'm old, my friends are old, and perhaps have another perspective about what is going on.

Martin Eden

(13,216 posts)
26. A Trump presidency will hurt your friends, and pretty much everyone
Sun Jul 21, 2024, 09:14 AM
Jul 21

We have to try to convince them of this.

I was born during Eisenhower's 2nd term, and have been following politics since 1968.

I believe this is the most important election in my lifetime, by far.

lees1975

(5,130 posts)
12. I'm right there with you.
Sat Jul 20, 2024, 10:30 PM
Jul 20

I'm not so sure some of these deep pocket donors are Democrats, or care about democracy. Aalienate th eparty base and that gets Trump an unlikely win. And that's what they're after. There can be no other explanation for this. We need to tke our party back.

Martin Eden

(13,216 posts)
23. If they're not Democrats and/or want Trump to win
Sun Jul 21, 2024, 08:36 AM
Jul 21

WHY have they already given so much money to the Biden campaign?

radical noodle

(8,114 posts)
28. Perhaps not, but...
Sun Jul 21, 2024, 10:17 AM
Jul 21

they're certainly creating panic among those who fear another trump presidency more than anything.

Tickle

(2,891 posts)
4. My head is spinning 😯 I'm
Sat Jul 20, 2024, 08:46 PM
Jul 20

confused or bewildered, if we do replace Biden. Then Mike Johnson is going to challenge our decision and bring it to the Courts. I'm getting flashbacks of 2000

PortTack

(33,963 posts)
11. Thx so much for posting...I've never, and I mean never used fb...but the person that wrote this so spot on
Sat Jul 20, 2024, 10:30 PM
Jul 20

kingvitamin

(92 posts)
13. It's like a stampede over the cliff
Sat Jul 20, 2024, 10:54 PM
Jul 20

I think our democratic leaders have been spooked and stampeded by the corporate media to push for Biden's departure. The whole thing seems orchestrated by people in the shadows.

Response to markpkessinger (Original post)

summer_in_TX

(3,045 posts)
15. A lot of these wealthy guys are making money making bets on the outcome of the election.
Sat Jul 20, 2024, 11:08 PM
Jul 20

That includes on the likelihood of whether they'll succeed in getting Biden off the ticket and various top-of-ticket possibilities.

Dr. Lisa Corrigan (@DrLisaCorrigan) says:



The problem is the role of SPECULATION in markets. This is what is driving anonymous donors and dems to push for Biden's ouster alongside news media and polls that have been subsumed by tech bro capital.



I really don't think people have any idea about how crypto/tech finance capital is reshaping markets, including: news, polling, and elections. The shift from Murdock to Thiel is the story here, not "dems in disarray."



The Dump Biden convo is the GameStop short squeeze of election season.

Jarqui

(10,406 posts)
16. For Dems to have gone to the media asking him to step aside was insane
Sat Jul 20, 2024, 11:09 PM
Jul 20

They damaged their candidate and split the party.
Maybe have that conversation behind closed doors and have the party do whatever 100%. (I don't have all the facts ...)
But by going to the media, they've given Trump commercials going down the stretch to the election.
That was beyond stupid.
Now the party will be split - some angered by what they did.
We need all hands on deck with 100% going in one direction.
Biden's position before this happened was not as good as it was in 2020.
They're devouring themselves and their party running to the media calling for Joe to step aside.

DDySiegs

(257 posts)
17. The Results of the Last Boloxed Dem Convention
Sat Jul 20, 2024, 11:09 PM
Jul 20

For those who are not as old as I am, let me tell you a bit about the election that occurred iin 1968.

First you should understand that that year started off with Lyndon Johnson announcing he would not seek a second term. (Think Viet Nam war.) This soon led to the feeling that the best Dem candidate would be one Robert Kennedy (obviously to be strongly distinguished from his stupid and inept son who has been trying to confuse this year’s current election campaign by idioticallly touting his anti- vax nonsense). Alas, Bobby Kennedy was assassinated by Sirhan Sirhan. So then the Dems had to switch to Senator Hubert Humphrey. He would have made a fine President. But that didn’t work out because the Democratic Convention in Chicago was a disaster. People had voted for Kennedy and Humphrey in the primaries, but the anti Vietnam war leaning Dem electorate together with the stupidly evil antics of the Chicago mayor Richard J Dailey turned the covention into a forum of confusion and internecine rancor which eventually nominated Humphrey.

In my view that messed up covention played a very big role in the the resulting victory of the Republican candidate.

And who was that candidate - - why it was none other than the man who was the SECOND WORST PRESIDENT we’ve ever had, Richard Milhaus Nixon. (I bet you can guess who the WORST president was.)

If certain Dem members of Congress and self important and totally misguided big donors keep mistreating Biden the way they so stupidly and/or selfishly have done since The Debate, we are going to finish the nominating process in the same catastrophic way the 1968 Dems did and we might very well get the worst president ever for a second and vastly more dangerous time.

To those who have been hell bent on repeating 1968 - - WAKE UP BEFORE ITS TOO LATE!!!!


dai13sy

(442 posts)
18. If you're against President Biden
Sun Jul 21, 2024, 12:04 AM
Jul 21

you are not for the Democratic Party. I want President Biden for President because he's good and honest and a great President. He's been working his ass off for us and the way some Democrats want to thank him is kick he and Kamala to the curb. I have no respect for anyone who wants dump President Biden and Vice President Harris. It will mean the Democrats don't have a chance in hell.

Martin Eden

(13,216 posts)
24. So then, Adam Schiff and a host of other elected Democrats
Sun Jul 21, 2024, 08:40 AM
Jul 21

Perhaps even Nancy Pelosi -- are NOT for the Democratic Party?

EQuerulousUnum

(2 posts)
19. Differing view
Sun Jul 21, 2024, 12:26 AM
Jul 21

Lifelong Democrat who yet sees things quite differently than you.

Biden should be ahead in the polls and cruising to reelection based on the record of his administration and the awfulness of his opponent. But he is not.

Based on my personal observation, discussion with numerous people across the country and extensive reading, the concern over Bidens age and condition has been there for a while and there was every expectation that the debate would reassure people but unfortunately it did the opposite and amplified those existing concerns. All this finger pointing that it was the media reaction after the debate that is the problem is just nonsense. The media was reporting something that was obvious for all of us to see.

I know many Democrats (especially younger ones) who are lacking in enthusiasm because he just isn't a good messenger. They need inspiring. I also know people in the undecided space who lack enthusiasm to get off the fence. Just repeating how awful Trump is doesnt inspire them. As much as it is important to talk about how a Trump presidency would be a disaster for the USA, the campaign cant be based just voting against Trump. They need inspiring too. I have yet to see that Biden is or can do this.

Putting Harris at the top of the ticket retains some of the incumbency advantage and the fundraising advantage and decisively deals with the youth/energy issue. I was lukewarm on her when Biden picked her four years ago. But I now believe she could crush Trump in a debate.

Its suggested this makes the same mistake as in 2016. The numeric difference between 2016 amd 2020 voting was 3rd party support. Trumps % was about the same both times, but in 2020 3rd parties got less than 2% whereas in 2016 it was about 6%. Right now Biden is making the mistake of 2016 - polls show him loosing states he should win becuase of those saying undecided and third party.

Martin Eden

(13,216 posts)
20. I'm reccing this post and the OP as well
Sun Jul 21, 2024, 08:23 AM
Jul 21

Both are very well articulated and make excellent points.

EQ, I think everything you expressed is accurate, but it doesn't address the tremendous difficulties and perils of selecting and funding a replacement ticket at this late date.

The campaign to win this election and save our democracy is in a very difficult place right now. Unfortunately there is far too much anger and Democrats turning against each other, which only hurts our common cause.

Logical, civil, intelligent discussion is necessary. I appreciate the content of the OP, and your contribution as well.

On a lighter note, I'll express a pet peeve of mine regarding a word in your last paragraph: "loosing" which may or may not be a typo.

Loose rhymes with juice.
Lose rhymes with booze.

I feel like I need the latter, but it's morning so I'll have the former.


Peace,
Martin

TwilightZone

(26,949 posts)
21. "They need inspiring."
Sun Jul 21, 2024, 08:25 AM
Jul 21

People shouldn't need to be inspired to keep the country out of the hands of a narcissistic sociopath.

While I agree that our messaging could be better (as always), voters have everything they need to know about Biden's record and Trump's history (and potential future) to make an informed decision.

I've never understood the need for some to be personally pandered to in order to get off the couch and do the right thing. While I understand that it's human nature (and seemingly getting worse), this apathetic attitude is a lame excuse for letting Trump cause damage that will take decades to resolve. There should be a responsibility to society as a whole that is far greater than whether or not a specific politician waves enough pom-poms to get us to vote.

EQuerulousUnum

(2 posts)
30. Agree, but this is reality
Mon Jul 22, 2024, 01:18 AM
Jul 22

I do agree that people shouldn't need to be inspired to keep the country out of the hands of a narcissistic sociopath.
But yet this narcissistic sociopath...felon...sexual predator...ass...loser... received around 46 % of the vote two elections in a row., and the first time that 46% was enough to win.

So we aren't dealing with what people should or shouldn't need.
We are dealing with an eff-ed up reality in which we need to make sure that 46%% is not enough to win.

Stop expecting people to agree with you because you think they should and in figure out how to get them to agree with you.

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