BREAKING: Donald Trump gets nightmare news

[Rubyshoo]

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BREAKING: Donald Trump gets nightmare news as the renowned Cook Political Report shifts Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada towards Kamala Harris as she gains steam.

And it gets even better…

All three of the crucial states had been considered “lean Republican” at the beginning of July when Joe Biden was still the presumptive nominee.

Now, these states are considered a “toss up” as more and more polls show Harris gaining ground.

“For the first time in a long time, Democrats are united and energized, while Republicans are on their heels. Unforced errors from both Trump and his vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance have shifted the media spotlight from Biden’s age to Trump’s liabilities,” said Cook Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter.

“In other words, the presidential contest has moved from one that was Trump’s to lose to a much more competitive contest,” she added.

“Bottom line: Things look a lot better for Democrats today than they did a few weeks ago, but Trump is looking stronger now than he did in 2020. This is a Toss Up,” she said.

[Maeve]

1. A waking nightmare that haunts his every minute

[ProudMNDemocrat]

2. The DNC is next week after the Olympics wrap up.

THAT'S going to change things even more for the Harris/Walz ticket.

[ArkansasDemocrat1]

28. And Harris has been advertising throughout the olympics

Haven't seen one TSF ad

[MagickMuffin]

3. Wait What, Trump is looking stronger now than he did in 2020.

I think he is weaker and getting weaker by the minute!

[moonscape]

5. I think folks need more exposure

to him to (incredibly) remember how awful he is.

[EYESORE 9001]

7. I'm dubious about that too

[ITAL]

8. Biden was leading by decent margins through most of '20

So from that standpoint, Trump probably does look better on paper now than he did in August of 2020 since he's been much more competitive in polling to this point.

[lees1975]

11. I seriously doubt the accuracy of polls showing Trump stronger now than he was in 2020.

Paid polls, perhaps. I'm still not convinced that Biden wasn't going to win this by a fair margin. It's now looking like it is heading for a landslide.

[ITAL]

14. On August 8th 2020

Biden led by an average of 8.8% across all polling.

Four years later Harris leads by an average of 2.1%. Trump and Biden were much closer in '24 than in '20. Now Harris is trending upwards, and in the days to come that lead is gonna grow, and she will likely approach Biden's lead. However, it's also true that Trump has polled better this go round than four years ago.

[lees1975]

29. Says the polls.

I'm not convinced. There's usually some precipitating event or cause that changes numbers over the course of a year. In this instance, while the media has hammered about Biden's age, that's largely a right wing argument. I'd like to know what the raw numbers were, and what led the pollsters to play follow the leader in putting the factors into play that changed the numbers.

[ITAL]

30. Well

The factor obviously was the soft support Biden had among many Democrats and Independents this go round because of his age, or Gaza, or something else. It was definitely real.

As for four years ago, the polls actually under reported Trump's strength, as Biden had an 8.4 point lead in the national average on election day 2020, and won by 4.5 percent.

[ananda]

27. I agree. This race was never Trump's to lose.

That idea was manufactured by a manipulative, rightwing media
and polling that skewed to the right.

However, Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are really smokin' it.

I think it will be a decisive win!

[Deminpenn]

16. I do, too

It's been my observation that 2nd acts don't play well in American politics. That they rarely do as well as they did the first time. This is Trump's 3rd act. He's not going to get more votes than he did in 2020.

[BonnieJW]

19. I agree!

I was surprised to read that too. I think people are running away from him. They aren't even showing up. The contrast between his bitching and normal Americans is stark. He doesn't know how to pivot and wouldn't even if he could.

[yellowcanine]

22. Yeah that might be technically true at the moment but in 2 weeks - probably not.

A statement like that completely ignores the trend lines which are all going against Trump.

[NonPC]

23. She HAD to Include That Too

The press just can't help themselves. Look at the interviews yesterday (?) on CBS with AOC and CNN with Al Franken. These hacks are desperate to get a new stupid line of crap started.

[jls4561]

26. No, no, no! It's Trump is smelling stronger than in 2020.

Damn that autocorrect.

[Blue Owl]

4. Crush the Mango Monster of Mag a Lardo

[Johnny2X2X]

6. He's going to blow his top soon

He's due for a total meltdown where he just completely loses it.

[mitch96]

24. Come on, lay off the sick old man.......NOT!!!

[displacedvermoter]

9. Not really sure how he could be

"looking stronger now than he did in 2020" when he had not been convicted of multiple felonies, not been proved to be a rapist, not been proven to be a business cheat owing $500 million in penalties, and not just selected the worst vice president candidate ever (yes, I am giving him that title).

He also has Bob Kennedy in the race who looks to take a percentage of his craziest supporters.

I don't see it.

[lees1975]

10. Democrats have won the statewide elections in Arizona for two cycles now, in 2020 and 2022.

I'd say the Cook report leans Republican in its evaluation. Trump's hand picked and endorsed candidate for Governor of Arizona lost in 2022, and she's now fairly far behind in the Senate race. I wouldn't have started Arizona out as leaning anything, it should have been, at very least, a toss up.

Nevada is an enigma. A difference in 10% turnout between 2020 and 2022 cost their governor, but the Democratic senator survived. I read that their current governor has a 35% approval rating. It's fertile ground for Democrats to win, by 2-3%. And while Georgia does have Republicans in the governor's mansion and in statewide office, they're not Trumpie Republicans. If I were betting, I'd say that the population growth there from the Northeast, and a good turnout in Atlanta and the collar counties gets Harris its 16 electoral votes.

[awesomerwb1]

12. Bullshit "analysis" there at the end?

"Unforced errors"??

[valleyrogue]

13. I am going to say it over and over and over

it isn't because of Harris being the de facto nominee is why the trend. It was trending that way anyway.

The issue has always been about Trump. Trump was NEVER going to get another term as he is a known quantity. It would be much different if there had been a different GOP ticket. Abortion is also going to weigh heavily in the election no matter who the Democratic nominee would be.

All Harris and Walz have to do is retain the same states Biden won and would have won anyway, and the election will be over. The Dobbs decision fallout is the huge wildcard in here this time around.

[misanthrope]

15. Unless someone pulls off a legal miracle, Georgia is fait accompli

Yesterday's news that the MAGA-infested Georgia election board now has discretion for Trump-friendly hijinks casts a long shadow across Peach State voting outcomes.

[Blue_playwright]

17. Don't forget Utah!

It's not a lot in the electoral college, but the Mormons are talking about endorsing Harris/Walz because Trump is so horrific they just can't do it. That gets the W in Utah and also hits other states that have larger Mormon populations.

[wryter2000]

18. How could he look stronger than in 2020?

He was the incumbent president. I don’t buy this toss up crap. Next week they’ll be telling us the bloom is off the Dem rose. They are so full of it.

[not fooled]

20. Yeah, I wanna toss up

because of the number of people who still support the traitor.

[ShazzieB]

21. "Trump is looking stronger now than he did in 2020"? On what planet?

“Bottom line: Things look a lot better for Democrats today than they did a few weeks ago, but Trump is looking stronger now than he did in 2020. This is a Toss Up,” she [Cook Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter] said.

I really have to question this assertion. I mean, where was Walter in 2020? I seem to remember things quite differently! Sounds like "both sider" gaslighting to me.

[jaxexpat]

25. Driving from Green Bay to Minneapolis, Tuesday, I saw two Trump signs tacked to fence posts.

Smallish, 12" x12", paper. Neither looked to be newly installed. Saw no other political signage of any stripe. Wisconsin has had hell to pay with its share of Republican mis-guidance over the last decades. Voters in the rural areas of Wisconsin and the rest of the country will hopefully lose their misappropriated enthusiasm for Republican disruption this season. They've surely seen no benefit from it. The clown show may fail to draw a second crowd after disappointing the first. Even the most unsophisticated rubes eventually catch on to having their good natured hospitality abused.